blonde poker forum

A semi interesting spot from yesterday...

playing $10/$25 at the rio.

Btn straddles for $50. sb folds, BB who is the mark in the game completes playing $3,500.

folds to MP, the best player at the table playing ~$15k who ISO's to $200.

I call in the CO with  Ad Jd playing $9.5k and the BB calls as well.

Flop ($660)  Jh 9s 5c

BB chks, MP bets $375 I call BB folds

Turn ($1410)  Ac

MP bets $625, I call

River ($2,660)  7h

MP bets $1,400.

I have $8,200~ back before calling the $1,400

call or raise what do we like and why.

This player is very very good, I've been playing pretty tight, but not mega nitty - he certainly won't see me as a lunatic and will almost deffo give me credit in big spots post flop.

Don't see him calling with worse if you raise esp when you have a nitty image. I call.

villain = hero imo   :D

oh, and I just call

Call and be unhappy when he shows you toby lewis?

i want to raise/fold this river.

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

so just call imo

Its a call.... don't think there is any value in raising..u calling if he sticks it in ur eye? and would you be winning ? don't give him the chance to shove you off when you have massive showdown value

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

How much of your river raising range will he think consists of bluffs ? You have a ton of 2pr hands, could have slow played 99,55 or have 108. The only hands I can see that you bluff with are Q10,some Jxcc,9xcc or KQcc.

Then you answered your own question

He's almost never going to turn these hands into bluffs so raising is at worst EV neutral in comparison to calling

snap call if he sticks it in ur eye ?

No I'd be raise/folding

I would expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time though

so pretty much our value range is he has AK AQ...... he pretty much doesn't call with anything less as it has been stated he is very very good.. ?

what the fack easy call

also raise pre

i mean call

I think call...value is thin...and we could get blown off the winning hand..

Its marginal for me.  Like previous posts have said, what do you do if he jams?  Having said that it looks so much like AK that if i feel he may look me up here then i make it £3.75K and if he folds i don't have to show my hand, if he jams i then re-assess.  One thing to also think about here is; does a call here do anything for your image which is already tight? just flatting the river bet and flipping top two kind of reduces your big hand pay off value in future hands does it not?

[ ] Have played 10/25 lots.

I want to raise the turn to $1600.

As played, I think I have to raise, only thin though so I can snap fold if he shoves. His range is still pretty wide and were not beat by many combos.

All totally depends on the dynamic I guess, if he really is this good he could easily lead into us with worse to balance his river value bets.

Cool hand to analyse though, could go into so many different levels.

wtf you've got the Alister James. sometimes you gotta have a favourite hand you either win the world or hate your number 1 son with.

I probably raise for this reason. I feel you are behind a minimal amount, there is a chance you get paid by AK/AQ (although obvz a chance you dont), but raising here not only sometimes finds the thin(ish) value, but there is definate value in not having to show up with top 2 flatting here.

Got to be so careful against someone who's 'very very good'.

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

Very true. We're not talking about every hand though we're talking about this one.

You say you expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time.

How often do you expect to get called by a 'very very good' player?

Do you think he calls AK?

With our image he can't ever think AK is good here but he may have done when he initially bet.

If he was value betting he was probably going for the old bet/fold move himself so doesn't pay you off. Alternatively he may decide you haven't got much better than him, turn his hand in to a bluff and jam. (Unlikely but possible)

If he was bluffing he's never paying you off but may jam thinking you are bluffing (again unlikely but possible)

If he has a set he probably jams or at least calls.

Basically from what I can see he's not calling with anything you beat.

The most likely things for him to do are fold, then jam, then call in that order.

If I'm raise/folding I want that order to be call, then fold, then jam.

Don't get me wrong I'm giving the guy a lot of credit here which he perhaps doesn't deserve.

If calling with worse seems to outweigh his other options then ofc raise/fold is great. I don't see it here though.

Agree....

you   have been in vegas far too long dan. what sort of degen games you getting into.

You've gotta give the guy a huge amount of credit to not raise here for fear of being jammed on. We don't even know for sure that he has a bluff 3bet jamming range here - this is a terrible river to bet/3bet as a bluff when a player that he perceives as tight raises the river. For him to think that a river jam is the best play, he has to give dave credit for bluff raising the river. Remember that in this guys eyes, dave is a random thats been tight-ish. I very highly doubt that he's going to assign dave a river raising range that is mostly air and jam it in his eye.

Add in the fact that he beats all of daves bluffs with his AK/AQ anyway I think he's literally million to turn his hand into a bluff and jam the river.

Maybe my line comes across as a bit strong in my posts. I agree that a value raise here is thin but just because he's 'very very good' doesn't mean that we need to set over set the guy to get any money out of him.

come on dave, 2 days is too long to wait to find out what happens. hope it was a happy ending for you. and before you leave vegas could you please take DMorgan for a happy ending. if there was someone in need of this then i have never met them.

On My image...

I've played about 3 sessions with this guy, Im playing plenty of pots, and 3betting a decent, some double barrels etc, so not a nit by any means, pretty sure he has reasonable opinion of my game. What I mean is I really expect this guy to never really expect me to be out of line in these specific kind of spots, which tbh he is absolutely right, making large, marginal plays on the best player in the game is not something I am at all interested in.

So I expect him to just give me credit in the "big spots" such as this one.

Are you villain with AK ?

The river is a very easy raise. Its not even close given you have top 2 set blockers and even if he has a lower set he will only flat your raise anyway. I call if he shoves as well for this exact reason.

Id go as far as saying if you arent able to raise here then probably not best game to be in.

What worse are we hoping to get value from ? I know we need to be balanced so don't want our river raising range to be polarised to nuts or air but just in this situation where villain has bet/bet/bet I think the only hand we get value from is A9, maybe A5.

decently wide though. this is a 100% clear raise for value imo, missing out a tonne by flatting here. would need to be in game to have a better feel but raise call seems standard if ur playing well/fking with him decently.

no it's me in this hand, here is what happened why i posted the hand.

I made it $3,775, as tez at it sounds I didn't reaaallllllly know what I was gonna do if he jammed, I was just praying to the lord that he didn't lol

He tanks forevvvvvvvvvvver and evvvvvvvvvvvvvvver and starts saying "man, fuck I wanted to check/call I had a feeling this was gonna happen, fuck, how could I check call though thats terrible" etc etc

eventually after a good few minutes he flicks the call in grimacing and shows the old Acey Jacky so we divided the pot up equally

THen after the hand I was really confused thinking about it, wether my sizing was bad, the raise was bad etc

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

If you think he might call worse/induce bluffshove then raise. If you think he never calls with worse then call. It's really that simple and just depends on gameflow/image. Not really much more anyone can tell you other than his sizing looks kinda capped which has already been mentioned. If I raised I'd make it bigger, 4400-5k or something.


Also agree with this to an extent.

I kinda agree with this actually

Surely that is a bad way to look at it. We should look to make the best decision on every street regardless of our opponent, no?

Unfortunately you've already posted the results, but I defo raise the river. Is there not huge merit to him folding and not having to go to showdown with your image as it is? It improves it massively I'd have thought.

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

There is no wonder you guys are so good. Never met rob but this is good stuff dave.

What i meant was in a spot like this if I was really unsure, the cautious choice would prolly show a little more merit than the aggressive one when you're playing 25 hands per hour and every winning day is good for morale :@)  Not talking about this spot specifically as I still think it's a pretty clear raise, but in similar spots.

Surely that's a level ?

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

I'm not arguing that we should raise (I think we probably should but it's close) I'm saying that not making a play because it is high variance is really dumb in a spot like this. I mean justifying calling because raising is "high variance" is basically akin to saying "cba to do range analysis", which is what matters when we raise the river in almost any situation.

Also if he sigh calls top two there is a good chance he calls with worse than top two.

I never once said it was due to high variance, I genuinely think he expects us to be super strong and I dont understand how the fact he huge sigh calls with top 2 doesnt prove that. But since I can't see straight maybe I'm wrong.

If id have known he was gonna hate his life with top two then I would have defo just called, when I raised I thought he  prolly wouldn't call AK/AQ, but there is a ton of random stuff in da live pokers that makes people level themselves and act against your view of them (like the way i was breathing/acting etc, he might have a tilting text msg from his girlfriend and be life steaming, or have been bluffed by someone in a similar spot yesterday and the hand is still bothering him) - as it happens AJ isn't miles away from AK in immeadiate value, (except that it beats A9) so he may well have sigh called that hand as well.

would have been awesome if he'd folded and I'd pulled a sick merge off by accident

1) No you didn't, someone else did.
2) It is because AJ is similar to AK in relative hand strength. In other words if he sigh calls top two there's a good chance he sigh call top pair since he doesnt expect lild to value raise anything < top two.

Also, lets not forget even though Id been playing kinda straight forward vs him for obv reasons I do look hilariously laggy/slightly scandi with my new glasses on :P

It's your birthday. Piss off and do something balla you muppet. ;)

Should just ignore me when I post around this time on a weekend :)

obv wrong. he needs to call with worse hands to make a raise worthwhile because a raise is more expensive than a call when he has better

Brilliant piece of wisdom. Sometimes you need a fish to come along and state the obvious for everyone to see the wood not the trees.

oh james keys........

 ;tightend;