River...

[smashedagain]

come on dave, 2 days is too long to wait to find out what happens. hope it was a happy ending for you. and before you leave vegas could you please take DMorgan for a happy ending. if there was someone in need of this then i have never met them.

[SuuPRlim]

On My image...

I've played about 3 sessions with this guy, Im playing plenty of pots, and 3betting a decent, some double barrels etc, so not a nit by any means, pretty sure he has reasonable opinion of my game. What I mean is I really expect this guy to never really expect me to be out of line in these specific kind of spots, which tbh he is absolutely right, making large, marginal plays on the best player in the game is not something I am at all interested in.

So I expect him to just give me credit in the "big spots" such as this one.

[mondatoo]

On My image...

I've played about 3 sessions with this guy, Im playing plenty of pots, and 3betting a decent, some double barrels etc, so not a nit by any means, pretty sure he has reasonable opinion of my game. What I mean is I really expect this guy to never really expect me to be out of line in these specific kind of spots, which tbh he is absolutely right, making large, marginal plays on the best player in the game is not something I am at all interested in.

So I expect him to just give me credit in the "big spots" such as this one.

Are you villain with AK ?

[Dubai]

The river is a very easy raise. Its not even close given you have top 2 set blockers and even if he has a lower set he will only flat your raise anyway. I call if he shoves as well for this exact reason.

Id go as far as saying if you arent able to raise here then probably not best game to be in.

[mondatoo]

The river is a very easy raise. Its not even close given you have top 2 set blockers and even if he has a lower set he will only flat your raise anyway. I call if he shoves as well for this exact reason.

Id go as far as saying if you arent able to raise here then probably not best game to be in.

What worse are we hoping to get value from ? I know we need to be balanced so don't want our river raising range to be polarised to nuts or air but just in this situation where villain has bet/bet/bet I think the only hand we get value from is A9, maybe A5.

[AlexMartin]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

How much of your river raising range will he think consists of bluffs ? You have a ton of 2pr hands, could have slow played 99,55 or have 108. The only hands I can see that you bluff with are Q10,some Jxcc,9xcc or KQcc.

decently wide though. this is a 100% clear raise for value imo, missing out a tonne by flatting here. would need to be in game to have a better feel but raise call seems standard if ur playing well/fking with him decently.

[SuuPRlim]

no it's me in this hand, here is what happened why i posted the hand.

I made it $3,775, as tez at it sounds I didn't reaaallllllly know what I was gonna do if he jammed, I was just praying to the lord that he didn't lol

He tanks forevvvvvvvvvvver and evvvvvvvvvvvvvvver and starts saying "man, fuck I wanted to check/call I had a feeling this was gonna happen, fuck, how could I check call though thats terrible" etc etc

eventually after a good few minutes he flicks the call in grimacing and shows the old Acey Jacky so we divided the pot up equally

THen after the hand I was really confused thinking about it, wether my sizing was bad, the raise was bad etc

[Royal Flush]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

[Patonius2000]

If you think he might call worse/induce bluffshove then raise. If you think he never calls with worse then call. It's really that simple and just depends on gameflow/image. Not really much more anyone can tell you other than his sizing looks kinda capped which has already been mentioned. If I raised I'd make it bigger, 4400-5k or something.

Id go as far as saying if you arent able to raise here then probably not best game to be in.

Also agree with this to an extent.

[SuuPRlim]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

[Solaris]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Surely that is a bad way to look at it. We should look to make the best decision on every street regardless of our opponent, no?

Unfortunately you've already posted the results, but I defo raise the river. Is there not huge merit to him folding and not having to go to showdown with your image as it is? It improves it massively I'd have thought.

[Patonius2000]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

[smashedagain]

There is no wonder you guys are so good. Never met rob but this is good stuff dave.

[SuuPRlim]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

What i meant was in a spot like this if I was really unsure, the cautious choice would prolly show a little more merit than the aggressive one when you're playing 25 hands per hour and every winning day is good for morale :@)  Not talking about this spot specifically as I still think it's a pretty clear raise, but in similar spots.

[mondatoo]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Surely that is a bad way to look at it. We should look to make the best decision on every street regardless of our opponent, no?
Unfortunately you've already posted the results, but I defo raise the river. Is there not huge merit to him folding and not having to go to showdown with your image as it is? It improves it massively I'd have thought.

Surely that's a level ?