River...

[Rupert]

what the fack easy call

[Rupert]

also raise pre

[Rupert]

i mean call

[the sicilian]

I think call...value is thin...and we could get blown off the winning hand..

[Junior Senior]

Its marginal for me.  Like previous posts have said, what do you do if he jams?  Having said that it looks so much like AK that if i feel he may look me up here then i make it £3.75K and if he folds i don't have to show my hand, if he jams i then re-assess.  One thing to also think about here is; does a call here do anything for your image which is already tight? just flatting the river bet and flipping top two kind of reduces your big hand pay off value in future hands does it not?

[Pinchop73]

[ ] Have played 10/25 lots.

I want to raise the turn to $1600.

As played, I think I have to raise, only thin though so I can snap fold if he shoves. His range is still pretty wide and were not beat by many combos.

All totally depends on the dynamic I guess, if he really is this good he could easily lead into us with worse to balance his river value bets.

Cool hand to analyse though, could go into so many different levels.

[smashedagain]

wtf you've got the Alister James. sometimes you gotta have a favourite hand you either win the world or hate your number 1 son with.

[WotRTheChances]

Its marginal for me.  Like previous posts have said, what do you do if he jams?  Having said that it looks so much like AK that if i feel he may look me up here then i make it £3.75K and if he folds i don't have to show my hand, if he jams i then re-assess.  One thing to also think about here is; does a call here do anything for your image which is already tight? just flatting the river bet and flipping top two kind of reduces your big hand pay off value in future hands does it not?

I probably raise for this reason. I feel you are behind a minimal amount, there is a chance you get paid by AK/AQ (although obvz a chance you dont), but raising here not only sometimes finds the thin(ish) value, but there is definate value in not having to show up with top 2 flatting here.

[SuuPRlim]

also raise pre
[/quote

i mean call

you alrite mate, bit too much time in the sun

I won't be worrying about my image too much after this hand, the player in question I've played a bit with and am not really looking to him for much value, if he thinks I'm tighter/loser than I am I'll just deal with it.

When I raise, can I rep ANY bluffs at all, not sure he'd expect me to turn a Jack into a bluff hardy ever, I can have 8Ts as well

give me $5800 on the river instead of $8200 and what do you wanna do?

[EvilPie]

No I'd be raise/folding

I would expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time though

Got to be so careful against someone who's 'very very good'.

[DMorgan]

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

[EvilPie]

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

Very true. We're not talking about every hand though we're talking about this one.

You say you expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time.

How often do you expect to get called by a 'very very good' player?

Do you think he calls AK?

With our image he can't ever think AK is good here but he may have done when he initially bet.

If he was value betting he was probably going for the old bet/fold move himself so doesn't pay you off. Alternatively he may decide you haven't got much better than him, turn his hand in to a bluff and jam. (Unlikely but possible)

If he was bluffing he's never paying you off but may jam thinking you are bluffing (again unlikely but possible)

If he has a set he probably jams or at least calls.

Basically from what I can see he's not calling with anything you beat.

The most likely things for him to do are fold, then jam, then call in that order.

If I'm raise/folding I want that order to be call, then fold, then jam.

Don't get me wrong I'm giving the guy a lot of credit here which he perhaps doesn't deserve.

If calling with worse seems to outweigh his other options then ofc raise/fold is great. I don't see it here though.

[the sicilian]

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

Very true. We're not talking about every hand though we're talking about this one.

You say you expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time.

How often do you expect to get called by a 'very very good' player?

Do you think he calls AK?

With our image he can't ever think AK is good here but he may have done when he initially bet.

If he was value betting he was probably going for the old bet/fold move himself so doesn't pay you off. Alternatively he may decide you haven't got much better than him, turn his hand in to a bluff and jam. (Unlikely but possible)

If he was bluffing he's never paying you off but may jam thinking you are bluffing (again unlikely but possible)

If he has a set he probably jams or at least calls.

Basically from what I can see he's not calling with anything you beat.

The most likely things for him to do are fold, then jam, then call in that order.

If I'm raise/folding I want that order to be call, then fold, then jam.

Don't get me wrong I'm giving the guy a lot of credit here which he perhaps doesn't deserve.

If calling with worse seems to outweigh his other options then ofc raise/fold is great. I don't see it here though.

Agree....

[smashedagain]

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

you   have been in vegas far too long dan. what sort of degen games you getting into.

[DMorgan]

You've gotta give the guy a huge amount of credit to not raise here for fear of being jammed on. We don't even know for sure that he has a bluff 3bet jamming range here - this is a terrible river to bet/3bet as a bluff when a player that he perceives as tight raises the river. For him to think that a river jam is the best play, he has to give dave credit for bluff raising the river. Remember that in this guys eyes, dave is a random thats been tight-ish. I very highly doubt that he's going to assign dave a river raising range that is mostly air and jam it in his eye.

Add in the fact that he beats all of daves bluffs with his AK/AQ anyway I think he's literally million to turn his hand into a bluff and jam the river.

Maybe my line comes across as a bit strong in my posts. I agree that a value raise here is thin but just because he's 'very very good' doesn't mean that we need to set over set the guy to get any money out of him.