blonde poker forum

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

GLGL, I don't see Sunderland going down though.

GTFO plz Wigan, surely it's time for them to go.

Cheers Ray

Its easy to pick the obvious selections such as Wigan ( thats how the bookmakers make their money ) but history dictates that things can change dramatically over the period of a season , as I said mine are not orthodox but there is a lot of long term reasoning behind my selections hence  I deem them as good  value

Yeah I wouldn't back Wigan now as I expected them to struggle, I just say that every season as I really don't like them :)

I actually think it's really tough to choose who will go this season, I fancy Norwich and Swansea to stop up but can't pick who goes instead of them. Blackburn are in bother but tbf to them they've been pretty unlucky the last few games it would seem.

At the moment I'm thinking Wigan, Norwich, Bolton to go down but I've seen a lot of teams look poor this season.
I think Sunderland may improve under new management and can see QPR taking a few batterings but also picking up enough points to survive.
Would be interested to hear further thoughts behind your selections if it's something that you've done well at previously.

thoughts on stoke?

Don't really agree with this.  The problems with trying to model something like this is that any mistakes in rating the teams are massively multiplied.  A simple look at fixtures so far and league positions can be enough to figure out whether a team is being overrated or underrated.  Bolton are a great example. Before the season started they were 7/1 to go down.  They lost eight of their first ten games and suddenly they were 13/8 to go down but of those eight defeats five were against Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all traditional top six teams.  Of their games against bottom half type teams they lost away at Swansea, at home to Sunderland and Norwich whilst they beat QPR 4-0 and Wigan 3-1.  Only really losing at home to Norwich and Sunderland can be classed as bad results.  Yeah they should have been cut to maybe 7/2 but any idiot could see they weren't 13/8 shots to go down unless you were only looking at the league table and reading the tabloids.  It doesn't take a model to tell me that they would be a good lay at 13/8.   Siimilarly I agree with OP that QPR are being massively overrated on a handful of results and in particular one victory against 9 men.  I could go on but basically people pay wayyy too much attention to league tables at this time of year and that means there is value in these markets and it isn't that hard to find.  Odds compilers spend literally 20 minutes on these markets on a monday morning and you don't need to be a maths genius to spot the ricks.

Even though I like what Norwich are doing I think heading towards 2-1 might be a little on the large side.

They have run miles above expectation and are only 4 points above 18th. They have played great no doubt but teams will start to figure them out and a couple of injuries could really cut into a squad without that much in-depth ability.

ive seen u on stars recently, but werent you manintheMQQN?

Nothing is impossible...but for me reasons why they wont go down ...

1  great manager  2 good team spirit  3 great home crowd /fortress   4 kenwyne jones to score goals  5 huth/woodgate at centre half

a lot of my sentiments/logic in this post

WP

1) really? i think hes awfull

2) agreed

3) agreed

4) doesnt get a game

5) huth doesnt get a game and woodgate is injury prone

Jones will be back soon,woodgate is a crock for sure but great when he plays...We agree to differ on Pullis

Opinion  in life  (as with poker ) is subjective thats what makes us different and life interesting....We make both winning  and losing decisions , we just need to make sure we %  on the winning side for the long term ,which I think is possible( with reason ,logic  and a bit of luck ) especially on long term markets

for sure :)

pulis is still shti though :D

my thoughts on sland are that brown, o shea etc all have alot of experience and are winners. Seszsegon and Bendtner wil always be a threat and they have lots of grinders such as Larson who will put in steady performances.

Still scum ofc.

that's quite a horrific bet.

so easy for people to lock in some profit there like.

Still think there is value on these two to be relegated especially considering the fixtures they have coming up....

Sunderland   6-1

QPR           9-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

QPR havent the easiest next 4 matches so I expect the price to reduce by the new year

Man Utd   home
Sunderland   Home
Swansea   Away
Arsenal     Away

I think the 9 -2 to be relegated is still  too big

Just thought Id do a QPR update for the new year .

Just for the record.... QPRs Last 11 premier league games   Won 1 , Drawn 2 , Lost 8 .


Position                  P  GD  Points
15     West Brom   20  -9     22
.............................................
16      Wolves        20 -14    17
17      QPR            20 -16    17
18      Bolton         20 -18    16
19      Wigan         20 -23    15
20      Blackburn    20 -14    14
 
Little 5 point gap developing now between the bottom 5 and West Brom in  in 6th .

Given their current form , league positon , goal difference ,fixtures remaining ,squad strength AND THEY FACT THEY HAVE JUST SACKED NEIL WARNOCK   QPR still available at 2 -1 with Corals ,Boyles or Betfair  to be relegated still looks like tremendous value .

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Thoughts on Warnock sacking? One of the reasons I was never that worried about Sunderland was that I thought they would improve with a better manager. If they were in real trouble they'd get money for a striker but they have some good players.
Hughes seems to be the one mentioned as replacement for Warnock. Really not a fan of his at the moment but could see why somebody would prefer him to Colin in the prem.

Think the Owner made a bold move an probaly will garantee they stay up now if Hughes comes in with the fresh Manager impertous that follows! Although Martin O Neil affect hard or  near impossible if Hughes gets the job i think Frasers tip for relegation a massive no no now an i think from his point of view he would of been gutted about this news of Warnocks sacking.

ok you have a chance now.

Seems pretty suicidal from the board, hes a great manager and as I've said, great games coming up.

PANIC PLAY.

Definitely this.  Think they go down now.

Faurlin out for the season is the bigger blow imo

Misjudgement from me perhaps but i obv want them to go down if you have backed them just you fancied them to go down before Neil was sacked so you obvioulsy felt he wasnt the right man with the right tools to keep them up! So now with that being rectified im surprised that everyone thinks that a new manager with possibly new faces coming in with money to spend will have a worst run if results they have already had recently?

Upset you never responded to my last post ! But i guess you having a chuckle to yourself after todays result!

Been on Hols with the kids and girlfriend so apologies for not replying.

I did fancy QPR to go down with Neil Warnock as manager..Ive used the analogy he was a good captain on a sinking ship . Right man but wrong club and I feel Mark Hughes is going to face the same problems , although he will attract some people , his signings are likely to be second choice players not wanted by other premiership clubs. QPR currently have a bunch of average players, a home capacity of 18,000,  are languishing  3rd from bottom and in there last 12 games they have  won  1 , drawn 2,  lost 9  .  I dont see too many reasons why top notch players would go there, which just goes to re enforce my opinion they are certainties to go down !

Can I get a lay @ 1.01 please?

Some Facts and Opinions on QPR & The relegation candidates.

Bottom of The Table...

17 Aston Villa            25 3 4 6 14 17 3 6 3 15 17 -5     28
16 QPR                   25 2 4 6 13 20 3 2 8 14 24 -17      21
17 Blackburn            25 4 0 9 19 26 1 6 5 18 30 -19     21
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 Wolverhampton  25 3 2 8 17 28 2 4 6 11 21 -21      21
19 Bolton                 25 2 2 9 15 27 4 0 8 14 24 -22     20
20 Wigan                 25 1 5 6 11 22 3 2 8 12 28 -27     19

 
There are now 13 games left for each team this Season . QPR in their last 13 Premiership games have drawn 3, Lost 9 and won just 1 game which was home to Wigan.

There is now a 7 point gap between the bottom 5 clubs (Blackburn,Bolton ,Wigan Wolves and QPR ) to Villa in 6th from bottom...so its highly likely that 3 of those 5 teams will go down.

QPRs next 3 matches are seemingly the easier fixtures ,thats if you can call Fulham & Everton at home & Bolton away easy , however Cisse is banned for 2 of these . After that they have a very difficult 10 game run through until the end of the season , in which they face all the top teams and play none of the bottom 6 . Compare that to the other teams at the bottom and they appear to have the hardest remaining fixtures.

They have a great manager in Mark Hughes, and " when " in the mood good players in Zamora ,Cisse ,Barton and Taarabat , but they also have plenty of average ,non premier league standard players too. They lack cohesion and their heads seem to drop too easily when the chips are down. I appreciate the other 4 teams at the bottom are" not much better", but they seem to have a lot more fight & spirit in them, so when you scrutinise & see how difficult the remaining fixtures are for QPR "not much better" will  be enough to banish them to the championship.

For these reasons ....plus their terrible defence, poor form ,run in fixtures, and the very fact it appears to be 3 teams from 5 that will go down I cant see QPR staying up so ....
                                                
                                   The 6-4 still on offer  to be relegated still  seems very big .

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 Remaining Fixtures

 Sat 25th 15:00 Barclays Prem  QPR  vs  Fulham    
 Sat 3rd 15:00 Barclays Prem   QPR  vs  Everton    
 Sat 10th 12:45 Barclays Prem  Bolton  vs  QPR    
 Sat 17th 15:00 Barclays Prem  QPR  vs  Liverpool    
 Sat 24th 15:00 Barclays Prem  Sunderland  vs  QPR    
 Sat 31st 15:00 Barclays Prem  QPR  vs  Arsenal    
 Sat 7th 15:00 Barclays Prem   Man Utd  vs  QPR    
 Mon 9th 15:00 Barclays Prem  QPR  vs  Swansea    
 Sat 14th 15:00 Barclays Prem  West Brom  vs  QPR    
 Sat 21st 15:00 Barclays Prem  QPR  vs  Tottenham    
 Sat 28th 15:00 Barclays Prem  Chelsea  vs  QPR    
 Sat 5th 15:00 Barclays Prem    QPR  vs  Stoke City    
 Sun 13th 15:00 Barclays Prem  Man City  vs  QPR  

Those next three games are huge.

Reading through this thread it goes to show how wrong everyone is.

At the start of the season I expected big things from Wolves, I thought it might be the season they go into top half, but that has backfired. But to even that up, I did think Bolton was going to struggle this season.

My current view is that those that are in the bottom 3 will stay there now.

Wolves - Hammered by West Brom who are just a very average PL team.
Bolton - Just play so poor and outplayed by Wigan at the weekend.
Wigan - Just a very poor team in general.

QPR have bought players that are of a decent standard and will stay up.

Two things struck me yesterday, one that Fraser hasn't posted on any on these footy threads for ages and two, reading thru some of these threads he has got some good analysis on some of the markets.

The QPR tips on here and the analysis above is spot on, they really do have an awful run in and seem to be in poor form.The worry is that he has just decided to stop posting after getting grief, which is a bad sign for the betting threads in general if people that are willing to put in the time he obv did on this board just decide that the hassle makes it -EV.

Even if we don't agree with some of the tips it has to be better to have a healthy debate and maybe iron out the difference of opinion, the grief seems to have even put an end to that.

At the end of the day we are all trying to win a few quid, this thread has been running along for months and has seemingly died off because some people saw it differently but expressed it in a way that made the original author give up.

He might just be on holiday or summat but its a bad sign when people that keep these threads going give up imo.

West Brom hammered the mackems last week too remember..

this has happened, yes. Hopefully temporary

A shame

The QPR analysis was brave/mocked at the time, and was prescient

that's a pity then. Even if it had turned out to be wrong it still gives people a chance to join in and maybe get to the bottom of something and make a bet that might be a better one than they would have had, even if it is the opposite of one that was suggested originally.

That's got to be a really good thing in the long run.

As Bobbys said, a great shame that somebody putting up well explained thought process gets grief for it so stops. I took some on QPR just because of reading his post and seeing the run in they have.

A good  example from the tips for Tikay thread yesterday. Keith put up a horse bet for Chelters. Someone spotted A PP special  offer that was better than the original bet. Keith then saw another angle in laying the win part of the original bet back and keeping the place part(which was brill value)

So instead of the original bet the guys now have two good value bets that were better than the first suggestion. None of that happens if the feedback on that thread was like the stuff Fraser gets on these.

I have to say if QPR perform to the standard they played today, they will not go down. (Obviously a pretty big if)

Traore, Zamora, Buzsaky, Taarabt and Onouha were all excellent.

We have ALOT more quality than anyone else at the bottom.

I've just backed us to stay up at 6/5.

Next weekend, away at Bolton is a huge game. Anything above 5/2 will be value for a QPR win imo.

That last min goal may of just done it ! As Bolton now 4/11 to go down while QPR at 9/4 .QPR could even give Man utd a present on sunday an let them keep the title ! FFs High pressure stuff this year

If ever a thread made interesting reading months down the line, it is this one.

Whatever happens, Fraser was close to reading it right.

This was the position as at February 7th.....

17 Aston Villa            25 3 4 6 14 17 3 6 3 15 17 -5     28
16 QPR                   25 2 4 6 13 20 3 2 8 14 24 -17      21
17 Blackburn            25 4 0 9 19 26 1 6 5 18 30 -19     21
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18 Wolverhampton  25 3 2 8 17 28 2 4 6 11 21 -21      21
19 Bolton                 25 2 2 9 15 27 4 0 8 14 24 -22     20
20 Wigan                 25 1 5 6 11 22 3 2 8 12 28 -27     19

And now? Wigan have 40 points!

 

Where is Fraser ? He predicted a massive sweat both ends of the table ! Shame hes not posting as he was sick of the way people reply sometimes which is a shame cause he seems like a knowledgble chap. im sure he will read this ! Whats going to happen weekend m8 !!

Perfect for Leeds imo

Terrific for F4F that this has come down to the last game

QPR shouldn't get anything at the weekend. Can Bolton do Stoke? I doubt it, but chances....

Good luck Fraser, can't believe how well QPR have run at home and you still got a good chance to get em down.

I'm hoping it goes your way mate, in a way that doesn't upset Keith ;o)

Hello buddy ! So you dont think theres no chance QPR can just defend an put 10 men behind the ball an hold out ?

Dont be so sure............... Its a football match not a pack of cards wt 1 out :)

Phil Gartside 100m in dept and relegated. Hows that feel?