blonde poker forum

You might have seen this already, day 1 of the One Drop...

Tom Dwan raised

Two callers Mikhail Smirnov and John Morgan. 

Flop  Js 8c 7s

Dwan checks.

Smirnov bet quickly called by Morgan

Dwan folds

Turn 8s,

Smirnov bet 200,000, and Morgan quickly called.

River Ks,

Smirnov bets the third street

Morgan raises all-in for 3.4million total. 

Smirnov went deep into the tank, and eventually folded 8h 8d.  He folded quads.

Dwan and Hellmuth at the table were dumbstruck


Smirnoff's read?

Morgan would have 3-bet pre with K-K

He said that Morgan looked so comfortable throughout the hand, that only the straight flush 9s Ts made sense.



Yes? No? thoughts?

Fold. Plenty of better spots.

/thread

Galfond spoke really well about this hand and basically said that HE is never folding, but that it isnt as bad as it sounds

Hellmuth's AQ call was worse.

Galfond did also say that he expected Morgan to have the str8 flush 50% of the time. The most amazing thing was that after the 8 8 got tabled Morgan, who up until that point did indeed look comfortable, looked like he wanted to be sick and had seen a ghost.  Imagine if you had made a str8 flush and your opponent folded quads in a $1 million event, I am pretty sure there is no hiding your emotions then

That could work the other way too Jase. Imagine he would have felt uncomfortable if hed just unknowingly bluffed in a $1m dollar event.

Do we know what he had?

To be fair you would look the same if you have made a ridiculously badly judged shove and dodged a bullet.

Beaten to it. What he said ^^

why did he show though

If it was a bluff do you not show for TV.  If you played a hand so badly that someone can fold 2nd nuts face up do you just muck and not let the whole world know ?

Not if you feel like an idiot

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9jHmmnW_f4

Tbf he makes so many reads putting his opponents on hands and this is one of the few bad ones he makes. Add the fact that you can see the hole cards then the situation is slightly different.

I just think Morgan had the str8 flush and the fact he flopped the nuts and improving just adds more weight to the way the hand played out. Not ever saying I would fold because I would not have. I make the call and say if you have it then good luck to you. Then at least I am immortalised on YouTube as the chump who could not lay down quads

I wasn't criticising Negreanu or Smirnov. Just saying your motivation for not showing might be embarrassment as much as anything.

I'm sure most of us go broke here if his opponent had a straight flush... Just like I said before, the stakes are a lot higher so the decisions are much more thought out, especially in the early levels..

The final table will be interesting.. 

a million times worse. 88 looks like an ok fold to me, cant hate it.

Details of the AQ hand please

I missed it. Busy speaking to techy types  :D

Hellmuth check-called a 475k bet on the river with AQ and the board showing AQ2Q6. His opponent had 475k more behind.

http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2012-world-series-of-poker/event-55-the-big-one-for-one-drop-no-limit-hold-em/day1/?page=11

blimey, thanks

Hellmuths AQ was terrible...

I liked this one more...

On the first hand after the break, Frederic Banjout asked the dealer what the blinds were and then raised to 350,000. Action folded to Phil Hellmuth in the big blind and he verified the raise was to 350,000 before announcing a reraise.

"2.2 million," said Hellmuth before sliding out the chips. Banjout called right away and the flop came down {A-Diamonds}{J-Clubs}{8-Spades}.

Hellmuth and Banjout quickly checked the flop and then the turn brought the {4-Clubs}. "One million," said Hellmuth and Banjout called straight away.

The river was the {K-Spades} and Hellmuth checked. Banjout thought for a minute while shuffling his cards back and forth. He then checked behind and showed the {Q-Spades}{Q-Clubs}. Hellmuth mucked and Banjout won the pot.

Read more: http://www.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2012-world-series-of-poker/event-55-the-big-one-for-one-drop-no-limit-hold-em/


Haters guna hate etc.

on the very same day after I read the Hellmuth news I had aq on aqxqx and was up against AA

#hellmuthknows



regarding this hand (quads) actually looks ok lol

I don't know if one of the only ones on here that after reading the hh of the 88 folding.. I actually like it.

I can't see what the guy can have here that he plays like this EXCEPT the actual nuts.  He wouldn't flat JJ three way with a flushing board, so that and probably 77 is out.

How does he get to the river with  Aspades? and KK is going to reraise preflop a big % of the time....



The only hand that makes sense to call call call call call call reraise ARRIN has to be in this case the straight flush.

If your opponents range is only  Kh Kc or  9s Ts then in this situation it seems like an easy fold... its pretty sick for him to have a bluff of any kind as a lot of people fold.
(as a self levelling expert, I think people need to just range every street and see how their equity is vs that range on the river... in this case, not good at all) IMO

if he has one combo of kk it is a call. DUCY

Everyone on the table was very clear about the fact he was 3 betting (and big) the top of his range pre - so you can pretty much rule out KK

Was sweating Devilfish years ago at the Aviation and he folded quads in a very similar situation and was right.

There was a Bax/Belowabove/scott montgomary hand  on a 7474x board where bax folds 44 below has 77 and scott montgomary gets the lot in with AA on the river.

but im still never folding quads

The consensus seemed to be he could have JJ or the 9Tss (assuming of course he  has no bluffs)

Collusion ftw

I did think that at the time!

This thread reads like utter tosh to me!

Can someone explain to me why he cant have

77
JJ
 Aspades  Qs

Thanks

Live reads.

He looked into his soul and saw  9s Ts

Simple.

Can def have 77 JJ

Not so much aqss as he is turnIng his hand into a bluff,

I think the point of the discussion is that it's not horrific but I haven't heard any pros saying they would fold, just that given his range that's it's not "Annie duke" awful

he can have JJ but I dont think he can have 77

Probably raises flop with jj as such a wet board and had previously 3bet a lot so vs dwan I
On the button he's more likely to 3bet jj a definitely kk. On the turn with kk he would usually at least deliberate.

77 obv he never shoves this Otr. Same for aqss

Pretty specific reads knowing nothing about this guy and having never played with him.

Never folding here... No way

not meaning to be offensive but this view is shared by a lot of people and I think they're missing a trick.

Yes poker is a math game but we all know that if you play GTO then you can't be exploited but you can never win a lot either, this situation is the kind of decision that seperates the good and the great.

Even Galfond, who is an uber-genius said that he might not fold but that he still expects to see  9s Ts more than half the time..........

 

Villain is a businessman right ? If so I would include 77 in his range.

I'm not folding but don't think it's terrible.

Its a spot that's close because we're dealing with 0% bluffs and an extremely thin value range - made even thiner by the fact that loads of the combo's are blocked by the board/our hand.

I agree he will not show you 77 here, if he is going to slowplay 77 on J87ss flop he isn't going to jam the river with it.

If our hero cant give him KK/NF/77 and thinks JJ is super likely to raise the flop then he's prolly somewhere near the money folding, speashly in an event this big where people are going to be a lot nittier with their tournament life due to the hype/the size of the buyin. Me personally, seems like an extremely difficult fold to make considering that you're vs a sposed weaker player and you can never discount for the spazz/random nonsense factor in live tournaments regardless of the buyin.

Hellmuth's AQ hand is ridic and had he had a stronger table with people like Rast/Dwan on it straight after he'd have been severely punished by them for outwardly admitting he is refusing to play big pots or call big pots without the solid nuts.

He can have JJ here too often, slim chance KK and poss be a value shove with NF. In this specific spot no way I fold. However i totally understand his logic for doing so.

He doesnt have the nut flush

With ur soul Greek read , what do u think he had?
My opinion is he had JJ 99.99999% and he prob slow play
post flop. Mayb I am wrong but my soul read says JJ.

Anyone who doesn't think he had quads ever lay me like 3/1 and il have a big punt.

It also doesn't make sense to have jj 99% of the time just from a pure combos perspective.

Why do we assume that a very rich business man is thinking about his holding on the same level as a pro poker player ?

I agree that there is a case for some thought, and that this thought should end in a call. This seems to be roughly the view of a decent number of people.

Therefore, just a thought:

Would people agree, that had his mammoth dwell ended in a winning call, this thread would exist, but under the title " sickest ever nitroll in The One Drop?"

Is the agreement of many, that in this hand that it is possible to consider folding quad eights, possibly a suggestion that, in some other hands, the word nitroll is used too easily and frequently?

Got to be said: that is a brilliantly insightful point.

Now where did I put my "sorry for sounding sychophantic" emoticon..?

Pretty sure he had quads in this hand, may well have had them before too.

The guy is an absolute box and gets quads so often that folding them is trivial!

His 99 quaded up to knock out dwan and negranu

Still no word on what he actually had.

The guy said he wouldn't reveal out of respect for his opponent, so presume that means it was the best bluff ever.

Ok. Sounds like a business mans thinking and not a poker players. Sounds like the quads was ahead then. The mystery will continue

Looks like Morgan finally moved up enough that they respect his raises.

Probably call Kings full but fold Quads

Thought I'd add Collin Moshman's thoughts on this as they were pretty interesting:

(from http://teammoshman.com/?p=9665)

A lot of people are still talking about the face-up quads fold in One Drop.  I don’t have the exact details, but will reconstruct the action as closely as I can to start the discussion.
 
Blinds: $6000-$12000-$2000
Preflop: Dwan raises to $32k (position unknown), Mikhail Smirnov calls in SB with 8h 8d, John Morgan calls in BB.
Flop: Js 8c 7s  (Pot:  $114k)
Action: Smirnov bets $50k, Morgan calls “quickly,” Dwan folds.
Turn: 8s   (Pot: $214k)
Action: Smirnov bets $200k, Morgan insta-calls.
River: Ks    (Pot: $614k)
Action: Smirnov bets $700k, Morgan shoves $3.4M, Smirnov folds face-up.
 
Analysis:  Smirnov afterward says this was a “very easy fold,” which I think most would agree at least intuitively is a strange comment to make here.
 
I agree that the river shove indicates huge strength, particularly from a tighter player.  So let’s assume that Morgan is almost never bluffing or randomly shoving without a purpose.  The only hands consistent with the river action are, let’s say, JJ, KK, and Ts9s.
 
So now let’s look at the earlier streets.  Ts9s is the most consistent with the preflop action, but one aspect of the flop and turn are inconsistent.  In particular, quick calls are rarely monsters.  Everyone agrees that Morgan insta-called the turn.  It’s just super unlikely he makes a quick flop call with the nuts and doesn’t even consider raising, and it’s even more unlikely on the turn in a million dollar tourney in a large pot holding the stone nuts facing a large bet.   Same with JJ, both of those hands are strong enough that turn snap-calls are unlikely.  Definitely not impossible, just inconsistent with the timing.
 
So the alternative is KK.  While Morgan would most likely 3bet KK preflop, a cautious amateur could have decided to avoid playing a large pot OOP against Dwan with a fairly deep effective stack, even with a monster.  The quick flop and turn calls would then be less inconsistent with a hand like KK, as would the river shove.
 
So I believe that KK is Morgan’s most likely holding in this spot.
 
But let’s make the most generous assumptions we can for Smirnov’s fold:
Morgan never holds any hand besides KK or Ts9s (including 0% chance of JJ).
Morgan’s actions are equally consistent with KK or Ts9s.
 
There are three KK combos and one Ts9s combo.  Therefore Smirnov has 75% equity against Morgan’s shoving range while getting around 7:4 and therefore needing only about 36% equity.  Alternatively, Smirnov would be paying $2.7M for 75% equity in a $7.414M pot, for an equity gain of around $2.9M chips.
 
Smirnov therefore forfeits reasonably close to a million dollars in equity by folding there, based on the above assumptions.  For that reason I believe this fold to be one of the most significant mistakes equity-wise in the history of tourament poker.

I just don't see how he can have KK here. I would expect a 3 bet pre and more than just calls on flop and turn. I think he has JJ here most of the time and could def have 9-10s. I wouldnt expect him to raise with the nuts on flop. More likely to trap. He either has JJ or 9-10s is my conclusion. He could have As flush and be value shoving the river but more likely to call behind with that on paired broad given the action.

I am still not folding and don't think he should either.

Pretty much never has KK according to everything I have read about how he was playing

Still want him to have  str8 flush or I might have to start doubting my ability :)

You'll have to join the queue.

Fish like to flat AA and KK in the weirdest spots. I realise my experience doesn't quite lie with $1 milly tournaments, but however he was playing I don't think you can rule it out completely.

The point being he had 3bet big with top 3 hands consistently

Can't rule it out but we can decrease the combos by > 50% meaning that by he therein above It should  be a fold.

Lol wp

exactly this, stupid to say he never 3bets pre with KK, infact my guess is he close to 100% does.

Looking at this action someone is going to have to explain to me why he can't have 77 here.

Wet board. 77 may raise flop? He certainly could have 77 but JJ much more likely as is 9-10s and Axs

I'll explain the 77 if you can explain how you even have a spare second to post on here?

(http://i1175.photobucket.com/albums/r631/smashedagain/47d11f86.jpg)

Quads?

What are they?

He did jam over an overbet- i think river action was like 800k into 650k and shove for 2.7m. Would be beyond terrible for him to have it, and i know its lol amateur but cant see 77