blonde poker forum

As we head towards winter most of my betting horse racing wise will be made at Southwell on the glorious? fibresand.

Firstly why Southwell? Well it is often mentioned it is a specialists track to a degree it is and as such it is usually quite easy to rule out a number of horses who have previously shown they dont act on the surface.

Secondly this winter will feature a fair few horses that have never raced here and as such there price will be based on previous form elsewhere. Quite often it is mentioned that soft ground horses go well at southwell the stats dont really reflect this, the horse may go well here having handled soft ground but it is equally likely not to. More important for me are the previous performance of the sire at southwell. Now of course this doesnt guarantee anything, after all Paul Ross isnt as good on tv as brother Jonathon :)

The importance of sires on a horses performance at southwell is now factored into the market a lot more than a few seasons ago, however i still feel that quite often previous good turf form is a bigger factor and i dont think it should be.

What am i looking for to have a bet at Southwell? Preferably three of these four things would be a good start. The horse having previously shown a liking for the track (even if was a while ago), the trainer of said horse being in at least decent form, the horse sire showing a positive effect from racing there and the horse having moved from a poorer trainer to a better performing one.

Especially after this mornings findings with andrew heffernan and michael chopra to name but 9 a lot of punters avoid the generally low grade stuff at southwell deeming it all bent. I am not naive the majority of bent horses take place in the lower grades of which southwell have plenty. Personally i avoid completely 4 or 5 trainers who i cant read and don't want to waste time trying to, if they have a runner in a race unless i really really fancy one i will skip the race.



I will be starting with a betting bank of £1000 for this southwell challenge and anytime i put a bet on here will be a bet i have made.

Good luck all

 

Good luck with this pal, will follow.

;goodluck;

Yup, hope it goes well horsey.

good luck - I think this is a great idea for a thread.  I find the smaller fields of usually exposed horses in AW easier to read than  turf racing.

here we go fancy two today

3.00 SOUTHWELL

NOWDORO 11-2 £25 win (available with various firms )

Positives :

Showed marked improvement last time on first run in a handicap

Bred for southwell Notnowcato from a very small sample is 2 winners from 4 here and all placed and horse has deeper us breeding which is a small +

Looks a very weak race

Negatives :

Trainer is a low % outfit and not one i will back to often however is in some kind of form last two weeks.


Further bet to follow later will be in the 5.00

Good luck HP

Plenty of winter woes there

well it can only go up from there

horse either went wrong very early or is just useless probably both

5.00 SOUTHWELL GREAT CHARM 22-1 general £25 win

Right this is a good race for the grade with any number of course and distance specialists.

The selection is 2-3 here albeit a while ago, has not been with daniel kubler long and has in its last 3 starts been running over to far on soft ground and tried to be held up to get a trip it doesnt get.

Today he reverts back to 6 furlongs which is ideal, the trainer states on his website the plan will be to let him bowl along again he gets blinkers and first time hood (a new aid which is currently 14% across the board)

The horse may well have gone at the game but this is a career low mark and is the first time it has had its conditions since its first run for kubler were it still showed ability to come 3rd.

Horsey

Why not each way at those odds?

Surely worth hedging that second and third spot.

well not many excuses there

the 3 year old went wrong after a furlong or at least appeared to

great charm could never lead or get close to it stayed on a bit late but is going to need an easier contest to probably get competitive again


running total = £950

just the one all weather bet for me and its tonight at wolverhampton

THANE OF CAWDOR was purchased for $280,000 as a yearling... I dont think the plan was for it to end up rated 54 and running in a class 6 at wolverhampton on a saturday night.

The horse was trained by Tom Tate until its last run no offence to Mr Tate but for the stock he is often bought he very much under achieves, more importantly for whatever reasons horses that have left him in the past have often won fairly early on for a new trainer suggesting he either doesnt get them fit enough or places them very badly (probably both)

Back to the horse is now with Jo Tuite who is a fairly new trainer who started well and has faded a bit recently. However he got the all weather veteran efistorm to win at 33-1 on the turf last week which shows he can train and his horses seem to be running a bit better the last two weeks. The horse showed one piece of form when with tate and that was here on the 10th of July when for some reason he was dropped in trip to 7 furlongs from his maidens over a mile. The horse ran on quite well to get 4th near the line considering he was out paced throughout, this was from a mark of 60 so running even to that level tonight over a trip that looks more encompassing of its breeding and running style will see it go at least close.

The debut for Tuite at Chepstow last time was awful but having watched it a couple of times the horse never handled the track at any stage and had little pressure applied throughout 14-1 tonight looks more than fair.

7.50 WOLVERHAMPTON THANE OF CAWDOR £28.50 WIN 14-1 general (BOG)

Well ran ok no more than that plugged on in the straight like a stayer

Looks to either need even further or more probable a drop into selling grade










RUNNING TOTAL £922.50

Is the draw a big factor? I always thought it was at Southwell?

rick i will come back to that sometime tommorow if thats ok? bit busy

Wolverhampton stage a fairly decent card for a monday tommorow and a couple of horses catch my eye.

the 4.00 is a really good race with plenty of fairly classy horses and some solid proven polytrack runners. I really like ARTIC LYNX. Has had a consistent season for John Best which is impressive in its itself considering how out of form the stable has been for most of the year.

The horse has often looked unlucky for best running on late and often earning the comment "nearest at finish". The main angle tommorow is the fact the horse has gone to Robert Cowell who is probably the best trainer of sprinters in the country the last two seasons. He has improved numerous sprinters and if he can find the key to this one he is still relatively unexposed and 80 is a fair mark.

the 4.30 is the second division and again looks a good race with more horses very much unexposed and dropping in grade from decent contests.

I like a complete rag in CROWN CHOICE has not fired at all since leaving walter swinburn last season but horses leaving this yard have nearly all won or improved. The horse was probably badly handicapped when moved but has shown glimmers of ability in two of the runs this season in much better grade. The trainer is in fair form and i hope to at least see a bit more spark tommorow.


4.00 WOLVERHAMPTON ARTIC LYNX £40 WIN 7-1 (VCBET OR HILLS)

4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON CROWN CHOICE £20 WIN 33-1 (BET365)

thanks

Best of British, horseplayer.

Only objection is about the Ross brothers. Would Jonathan be in a sketch this funny?

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HX--4lsiTM

No probs!

artic lynx starts at 7-2 and finishes 3rd in reality probably ran the same race it often does at least i beat the price by a lot

crown choice got hampered 4 out but in reality is gone at the game at least in this grade


probably just the one tommorow night

8.00 wolverhampton

Capacious 4-1 bet365 £30 win

pretty sure this will start 5-2, unexposed unlucky last time needs to improve a little bit on that but no reason why shouldnt and trainer in really good form

running total = £862.50

very good :)

Rick

Re the draw at Southwell

I am always aware of the draw anywere but the draw is usually factored into the market in my opinion.

For example at southwell over 6 furlongs stall 1 and to a lesser degree 2 have a very poor recent record.

Thanks.

I knew I'd read about the draw somewhere.

In David-Lee Priest's book "The Betting Edge" he studied the draw there.

He concluded that for all races over 5 furlongs, ie not over the straight course, for animals within 5lb of the top weight, the outside 4 stalls had a significant advantage.

His sample was taken from races between March 2008 til July 2011. The above criteria had 429 qualifying animals and £100 invested on each returned a total of £36,300.

I have been meaning to follow this strategy since reading this and never got round to it!!

Any thoughts on the Capacious drift horsey? I was very much in agreement with you that it looked a good bet, a bit put off by the drift though.

i am pretty sure i didnt respect the field enough

having said that is a bit more solid the last thirty minutes than was earlier

capacious probably isnt that good but was never placed to challenge in the race, either the horse wasnt quick enough or eddie didnt fancy a hard ride either way not good enough and the market told the story.

Backing horses first time in a handicap is generally a no for me and god knows why i did it tonight.

Two i like at kempton tommorow night one ill put up now the second runs in the last race i will wait for to see how track is riding.

STREET POWER £20 WIN 7.30 KEMPTON 14-1 GENERAL

S Power has been a solid reliable enough polytrack runner for a few years now a mark of 82 certainly is by no means a gimme and is still higher than his last win, however there should be plenty of pace on here (at least 3 front runners) and this is the key to street power who will be running on late regardless. I like the fact george baker is booked for the first time in its long career if a horse was an ideal george baker ride this is it. Plenty of dangers but i feel street power is more of a 10-1 shot here, Gask the trainer has been way out of form but has had a good second and third last two days and has lots of entries for his stable the next two weeks which suggest he feels they are back in some kind of form.


running total = £832.50

cheers

not enough pace on there

quite often when there looks like being shedloads of pace on , on paper in reality the jockeys and trainers see this and change tactic they didnt crawl but i needed a pace burn up.

One more bet as the front runners seem to be holding up tonight

9.00 Kempton Blue Deer £20 win 16-1 general

Basically a horse that wins/runs well when rated around the 60 mark and gets the cheekpieces back on, has done this almost throughout his career and the handicapper has relented quickly from three poor runs , jockey booking a positive draw not ideal but he will be leading on paper should be able to at least attempt to make all

Good Call Sir

Some lead that lol

well done horsechap  ;yippee;

Didn't quite make all.... :D Some ride from Crowley though :)

Nice to see you getting weighed in though congrats!

Very nice indeed.  Wish I noticed this earlier, I was looking for something to beat the favourite in this race.  Respect.

Pick this up from a bargain bin if you can.

(http://i454.photobucket.com/albums/qq267/ppokerfan/696ddb2aa7758cde50cf94b04f74ff13.jpg)

thanks for very kind comments much appreciated

got the way it ran completely wrong and a nice surprise as at best it looked a dead heat, I bang on a lot on tips for tikay about variance in horse racing there is a prime example any other point of that race the bet is a loser.


running total = £1152.50

My favourite picture from today frankel doing his work this morning


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A435_98CcAAyOp1.jpg

RED ALERT, RED ALERT!

That book (^^^^) is by blonde's very own Chompy.

Best avoided, he has the dreaded Timeform Doube Squiggle. (Not to be trusted, a thorough rogue).

7.50 Kempton Oasis Dancer 14-1 vcbet £20 win

a cracking race very much out of place with rest of the card, haven't studied in the depth i would like but instinct says a horse as good on the all weather as oasis dancer shouldnt be 14-1 in any class 2.

One other race i quite like but will wait until tommorow for that one

Thanks again

Lovely bet horsey, well done!

Nice one pal.  :)up

thank you again

tikay i have sent you a pm sir

Thank you!

I'll reply tomorrow if I may, I've had a real bruiser with this and that the last few days, and so I'm off to bed shortly, as my battery needs charging.

of course no problem

Nice one horsey but I feel that you can thank me to some extent for being on the earlier one and failing to check back for the later selection.

well done mate.top bombing

thanks again

the other horse is in the 8.50 tonight at kempton

it looks quite unlikely i will get the price i really want but will update thread if i can nearer the off

Horse has drifted a bit so is now a bet

REGGIE PERRIN 8.50 KEMPTON £20 WIN 4-1

Horse has ran fairly well last four starts (last run was to high a class) is still unexposed as a stayer the fav i am far from convinced stays this trip

Well two bets one started 10-1 from 14-1 and one 5-2 from 4-1


oasis dancer just ran ok without ever looking like winning really

reggie perrin looked slow and hard work but quite how squad found a 3 length sprint in the final furlong is beyond me sometimes such things happen


almost certain having a day off tommorow wolverhampton looks to tough and the turf racing looks even harder .




running total = £1111.50

not a bad card at wolver this evening and a few bets

5.45 wolverhampton

menelik may well be better than these but from the outside box and at 7-4 now i cant have it with anybodys money and as such is taking up far to much of the market in my opinion.

AMETHYST DAWN has run very well since joining this yard, is consistent and this drop in trip looks if anything a plus especially with the 1 draw hopefully can try and make all and 9-2 is a little bigger than expected by me.


7.15 wolverhampton

worried about the money for tartan on first start for baker but the horse has serious temperament issues and unless something has changed in that department would not be for me.

GOAL is a solid horse around here , has a professional jockey back on again is 12lbs lower than when winning here last year and looks likely to go close to me at 5-1.

In the same race vcbet are going 50-1 VICTORIAN NUMBER ok the negatives, the jockey rarely rides a winner, the trainer has never had a winner :) Positives are has been running perfectly fine here and at kempton generally running its race 50-1 is just to big.


BETS

£30 WIN AMETHYST DAWN 9-2 GENERAL

£20 WIN GOAL 5-1 GENERAL

£10 WIN VICTORIAN NUMBER 50-1 VCBET

£10 EWAY DOUBLE A DAWN AND GOAL at 9-2 and 5-1

On gl us ;)

on... gl!

quality start

nice 1 horsey!! :)

Weeeee
Going too bookies too watch the 7:15 romp home also..  ;karabiner;

thanks lads

it is very early on in the winter but how that favourite started odds on is beyond me

How much do we make if the double comes in?

lets cross that bridge if and when sir :)

Lol.. Ok  ;pokergods;

This will sound stupid and show why I'm the worst, but which is best result? Goal stomping in or Queen Vic..  ;djinn;

Cracking race nice little profit, well done pal...

thanks mate

obviously annoying not to win but no excuses at all ran well, Victorian ran ok as well and is worth watching when getting a jockey switch and/or a trainer switch (preferably both)

pleased with a dawn won relatively easily and the fast pace helped.


nothing tommorow no all weather


A dawn is settled at 5-1 as bog was used



Running Total    = £1312.12

Watched the race and at one point I thought we were 1st an 2nd going into last, got a little carried away in laddies.. Oops  ;marks;

no all weather tommorow but the musselburgh card is ok so have had a look one bet another im still thinking about

4.20 musselburgh OIL STRIKE 14-1 VCBET £20 win

not a stable i like to second guess but a switch from there claimer to gibbons is always worth a  second look. The horse hasnt won yet for mick but showed more than enough second last run (4th over this distance despite leading like a scalded cat) last time was over to far

positives :- distance , handicap mark, jockey booking and ground

negatives :- trained by mick easterby

not searched a great deal but the only prices i can get for this are now around the 7/2 mark :(

Its one of the market movers, opening price with PP iwas 12/1 down to 5's.   Which still appears to be available, although most books are 7/2 to 4/1.

You can have some value pie Horsey!

yes price moved rather quickly

put it in the value bracket already but doesnt mean a thing if it drifts to 20-1 2 mins before the off

We cleaned up on Economic Crisis a few months back when we had the nod it was on a going day.  I haven't heard anything today, but will be backing it e/w as its been consistent.    Could be doing with more rain, it really does like the mud.

nice little gamble mate, at the current prices i much prefer cocktail charlie. Gl to you tho ive not bet it

i have given cocktail charlie plenty of money this last 18 months so racing karma says that will chin me

economic crisis playing up towards the start

on this for the degen in me :) gl us!

obv

fuck your lives guys

well it was certainly off

not helped by the winner leaning in on me on the rail but no real excuse

prob go up a pound or two and be 4/1 on the next tissue :(

yes

wont be interested in it again tbh

meh!

laying Hughes in the next for my entire life roll.  Fk it declared.

well that was quite hard to take but you cant always have things go for you and the short head winner the other night at 16-1 could easily have lost

the logic and reasoning was correct and we got 14-1 about a 3-1 shot

some interest at wolver tommorow but cant get on at prices now so will wait till later on

Running Total    = £1292.12

Good luck with this, only just spotted it.

thanks biddy

a few more books have priced up now so i have a few small plays

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50 £20 WIN BAJAN BEAR 6-1 BET365 £15 WIN ALL RIGHT NOW 12-1 PADDY POWER

a trappy looking race, Bajan Bear often looks unlucky but my feeling is he either needs a mad pace to chase at 6 or 7 (two wins last season came at 7)

back to 7 furlongs here the newmarket form last time is by far the best on offer in here, the trainer form remains a worry but 6-1 is a point and a half bigger than expected.

All Right Now ran a perfectly good comeback at southwell last time after a long break is fairly handicapped win record a concern but the fact the trainer had a 20-1 winner yesterday (first win for a while) suggests this decent stable is coming into form for the all weather (trainer has a very good record on the all weather overall)

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.20 £20 WIN ARTIC LYNX 5-1 general £10 WIN JUDD STREET 12-1 GENERAL

we have the first repeat horse for the thread, after putting it up here as my first selection i perhaps harshly suggested it ran the same race it always does. Having re watched the race a good few times now the horse gets stopped around the home turn the pace probably wasnt strong enough and the rider didnt have his finest hour. This field looks slightly easier and the run showed enough to think cowell can get at least a couple of wins from it this winter.

Judd Street is an old favourite of mine (10!!) and may be a case of heart ruling head. Been a grand servant who has been especially good on the all weather over the years including in dubai, been much lighter raced this season and ran a lovely race at kempton on comeback under a kind ride. May need the headgear back on plus this run for peak fitness but in a class 4 the old boy might just think im better than this lot!


thanks

are we ever gonna arrange a racing trip? be some good stories to be had im sure
as im an idiot who hasnt got a license yet i dont go racing anywhere near as much as id like to. Usually just cheltenham, st ledger festival and a few randoms.

like the Artic Lynx shout

Also on gl us ;)

fellow notebook horse thane of cawdor runs tonight

i am looking for a step up in trip dont get that tonight

leave alone for me

on for fun, glgl!

Came after Thane of Glamis, if memory serves.

glamis was a horse but not in training - lastkingofscotland is in training so the only hope for a scottish play on words

Vwp sir.

If Thane of Cawdor doesn't run well, I hear his connections will be taking him to a different trainer. He shall be King hereafter.

Bajan Bear looked the winner there.  Unlucky again HP.

Thourght it was gonna get up.. ul

nice 1 horsey!! :)

pleasing horse doesnt possibly want to hit the front to soon so that was ideal

bajan bear had no excuses lovely trip on the rail lovely pace to close isnt the heartiest

one more later on tonight post in a few minutes

Go on the Artic! wp mate

got e/w trebles with artic lynx and bajan bear with both 'thane of cawdor' and 'love grows wild' in the last at wolves... pretty sure i already owe horsey a drink, but if this comes in i'll stretch to two ;)

8.20 Wolverhampton £20 win Borug 7-1 general

good race this for a midweek class 4 staying contest

BORUG looks a reformed character since having its bollocks removed, ran two crackers on turf and a second around here in probably a better race than this,

always danger the horse may revoke to previous squiqqle temperament but callan seems to no the horse and i expected it to be 5-1ish

well a good day a slight feeling it could have been even better

bajan bear as said earlier no excuses just probably doesnt win the races it should  it hurt more because the same jockey trainer combination from yesterdays almost landed gamble did the same here (16-1 last night to 4-1) mick is certainly getting the money at present. I was quite happy with all right now considering it had pace pressure pulled for 6 of the 7 furlongs and still was there until half a furlong out.

pleased with artic lynx and could possibly progress again through the winter ridden quite close to the pace and sort of "fell" in watching again jockey always looked confident enough in the run. Judd Street never got involved and needs further and the headgear bit of a silly bet really.

Borug ran a cracker considering the pace was sedate did well to even get involved and didnt get that clear a run either could win again.

Running Total = £ 1367.12

Interested in once race at lingfield tommorow but a little wary as its the first day of the new polytrack so the surface could change things quite a bit.

is the £1k purely for the thread or are you actually betting these amounts? just curious

purely for thread action man

i am betting all of the bets i put up but not neccesarily for the same amount :)

nothing today

marmas was the horse of interest for me in the 2 miler at lingers and the 5-1 last night was tempting but couldnt get on

3-1 looks about right

squad and ostentation were taking so much of the market up last night i sensed the opportunity for a decent bet , squad looked like a group horse last time but isnt it was on the night moderate horses sprinted clear at kempton, ostentation has never shown it stays.

anyway no bet

Sods law Horsey.

pretty annoyed with that tbh should have worked harder to take the 5-1 last night

havent looked at tommorow yet as feel like a 105 year old man with some kind of virus

How the fuck did Flawless Beauty start at 5/1 in the best eachway race for weeks?

fyp :)

get well soon.

FML.....

PS - Yeah, get well soon Mr Horsey, we need winnersssssssssss

Betfair place sp 1.41!

Can only think that as it was the last race, dirty ew-ers didn't want to risk a withdrawal foiling their cunning plan, so not much in the shops for it?

Get well soon fella, i need my fix :)

haha +1

If you need a fix get involved in some joint sweats:

Lucky 15

WOLVERHAMPTON 15:30
Tartan Gunna @ 4.50

WOLVERHAMPTON 16:30
Pravda Street @ 3.25

WINCANTON 16:20
Castletown Bridge @ 6.00

UTTOXETER 15:10
Kilcascan @ 7.00


E/W Singles

3:15 – MARK ME UP

4:30 – DHAULAR DHAR

8:30 – DALIANCE

8:00 – ARCH VILLAIN

*Disclaimer. I am a tez mug punter but seem to be on a bit of a streak..

I was busy last night, so couldn't watch the market, it was a solid 7/2 shot on betfair all day and a general 3/1 or 100/30 shot with the books.

I nearly backed it at that price!

So, so sick.

oioiiiiiiiiii. We binked the first one. The sweat is on. Wifey want's a new dining table.

GL with this pal, I never got on so there's a high chance you'll bink it..

1st 2nd 3rd and 4th i think. made £1.46 profit.. Singles i'm 0/2. Nice swerve.

Lol you are the worst  ;D

sorry for delay really have felt shite since this time yesterday



9.00 kempton £25 win glaisdale 12-1 general


have no idea why the fav is 5-2 in my opinion it doesnt stay the trip , the bet is unexposed on its career debut run in a maiden here (dangerous to use but i have) 56 is a mockery of a handicap mark the run at warwick last time was ok but the main thing is the step up to 2 miles the breeding screams 2 miles all day and all night long (hurricane run and loads on the female line)

trainer isnt brilliant but has had a big priced 2nd and 3rd last two runners in a weak race like this i will always try and find something that could improve and at 12-1 i think its a risk worth chancing.

Arch villain did a bink to make me a small profit on the day. Lets make it a big profit with Glaisdale. gogogogo

will be on shortly :) get well soon mate.

bit annoyed with horses at the minute, was just on mawhub e/w @ 10s on the last at kempton for my current gambling 'net worth' looked like it was going to get up aswll :(

thanks mate

unlucky there

i managed to have one of my bigger bets of the season when arch villian couldnt get to somemothersdoaevem over 2 miles at kempton

i still have no idea how it didnt win

rab did his best to get it beat!

yet again horsey, you are the man!!!!

Booooooooom. wp Horsie

kashgar has just taken the tag of worst winter favourite  6-4!!! never in a million years

wiiiiiiiiiiii

Greeeeeeeeeeeease, I backed Red Mystique which was backed in from 8/1 to 9/2, traded @ 1.07 and came 3rd  :(

would have been on the same if it wasnt for horsey - although i still had a dabble

thanks for all good wishes

tommorow is almost certainly a day off only wolver in the evening (doesnt look great) and im looking forward to relaxing watching cheltenham in the afternoon

still feel shite despite the winner just glad i awoke in time and saw the market had done the race last night without checking the prices and had kashgar in at about 4-1 when i saw its price i looked again and the selection was the only one i could see improving past it.

will the selection win another race in its life? i wouldnt bet on it it got all the allowances hadnt been knocking its head against impossible tasks like the others and was trying something new.

When i feel better i will talk about what i look for in lower class races as a rule.


Running Total = £ 1742.12


thanks

as thought nothing today

thanks

Thats The New One won every Race except this years Cheltenham Bumper.

a couple of bets in the impossible last at ascot tommorow


LOVING SPIRIT £10 WIN 25-1 GENERAL

SMARTY SOCKS 14-1 GENERAL £10 WIN

smarty socks is consistent has been running back into form has the plum draw to try and make all and is fairly handicapped and wont mind the sludge

loving spirit unexposed interesting jockey booking should handle heavy and should also find this a lot easier


almost certainly some from wolver to come when they price them up

ffs

sorry its late

PEARL WAR 6.20 WOLVER 12-1 GENERAL £20 WIN

drops in grade bred for the all weather top stable in form good jockey booking awful race

thourghts on 'red cape' in the next at wolves? (8.20)

couldnt HOLDDDDDD

nothing today still feel pretty shit

well if the selection in the ascot race had got anywere near the rail it would have won easily but it didnt

the wolver bet travelled ok then stopped is either rubbish or has a physical problem probably both

running total = £1702.12

no all weather tommorow but some interesting staying races might be some bets

Weeeeeeeeeee

took it right out of my mouth

4.30 windsor hidden justice £25 win 10-1 (some 11-1 but not a lot so down as 10-1)

not a great race this

reasoning:

think it needs 1m 4f and soft, this is the weakest race it's ever run in, not much better than a class 6.  only had one run against non 3-year-olds and was unsuited by the pace but ran its best race, seemed to resent the headgear last twice thats gone and crowley is a good booking for the trainer


there were a few other possibles but the non runners have put paid to there prices

In this race Horse I see that the Hugh Taylor fella from ATR has once again put up Captain Cardigan, whom  was pulled out a race last week after there was a bit of a gamble on another.  Any significance in that? 

thinking 'front page news' in the next at windsor, any thourghts?

significance is that hugh taylor is a very very good judge

however the price has long gone the horse looks a big danger good trainer change conditions should be ideal e.t.c

This isn't my thread and I know your post wasn't aimed at me but I would be weary of backing much today unless there was proof they are going to like to get their toe into the bottomless ground.  

Broughtons Charm looked like it might appreciate that type of going when it won at Wolves.  But I wouldn't be sure enough to rec it as a bet.  

no idea dont really look at 2year old nurseries gd lk if u have played

He definitely has a loyal following, when anything he backs gets too short though I like to try and get after it in the place markets.  Its a system that has worked okay.  I think.  Certainly less volatile than laying the win portion because that can get you in a hole. 

yes massive following

his thinking and outlook is the right one he looks for things that arent factored into the market already

good luck im off out back late tonight hopefully return to a winner

guess someone might have had the forecast :(

beat the price by a mile again went 1-2 in running wasnt as gutsy as the winner

well done to hugh on a massive double today

massive sigh, really unlucky there mate

just watched it again

wasnt crowleys strongest ride and pretty annoyed with it actually

as said the other day there the small things that make the difference


daily summary

backed a horse at 10-1 started 6-1 nearly would/ should have won / if my auntie was my uncle e.t.c

running total = £1677.12


tommorow lingfield looks ok but nothing concrete at this stage

cheers

Did you notice HP that it looked to have jinked a little in the final furlong?  Just as it looked to be going by. 

yes fair to say not the toughest

2.00 lingfield £15 eway COMEDY HOUSE 13-2

sorry its late more later probably

reasoning

it's well handicapped, clearly didn't stay last time after coming to win.  likes surface, unexposed compared to most of these, good jockey, good draw, should go forward.  fave's the only danger but thats drawn wide and will need a lot of luck from there

very well backed and never put into race

strange ride very strange race

We saw some money from one of our more shrewd punters this morning for Gigli.  Wasn't too impressed with first run myself, I thought it was one that might improve when upped in distance and going handicapping.   

I quite liked Tuscan Fun myself and backed that to place. 

5.30 lingfield

have spent more time than anything on this race last night and today

i hoovered over taking 20-1 daniel thomas last night which is 8-1 fact is though he is still not brilliantly handicapped is 10 now and probably cant win a handicap.

the main horse of interest to me is ELLIE IN THE PINK  i like the trainer change the horse has awful form figures this season but they have been in much better races on mainly soft turf and hasnt had races there (often earning the comment never in race held up last late headway) When Phelan books ian mongan i take notice when he is getting to no a horse he tends to book his apprentice so i am hoping the horse is ready. Two doubts the trip may be to far and is very weak in the market so far today, however its win at lingfield this timeish last year of 5lbs lower was easy enough and even if not today i think this horse will win this winter.

The favourite HARRY BUCKLE was my other fancy is nearing the right price now is consistent this trip looks ideal, good draw and track seems to be favouring the speed at 5-1 is worth backing for a small profit in the race.

£25 WIN ELLIE IN THE PINK 20-1 GENERAL

£10 WIN HARRY BUCKLE 5-1


thats the lot for today

comedy house got a strange ride in a race full of them

ellie in the pink is either gone or not off yet probably bit of both

harry buckle ran fine just found one to good

running total = £1612.12

8.50 kempton isnt a bad class 4 contest and i fancy two at big prices against the field

lets be fair the favourite Take cover hasnt done anything wrong 4-4 is quite some record even in low grade events. The fact this horse keeps having long breaks between runs worries me a bit though as something must be fragile certainly has the ability to win this

SHIFTING STAR has been an admirable handicapper for john bridger, basically always tries its best doesnt drop a lot in the weights because like many from the stable has maintained a good run of form for a long time now. For me I an Mongan coming back on for a 7lb claimer could be the key the horse responds well to mongan as it needs a hardish ride should be staying on well from a good draw..

LUJEANIE is a similar type of horse consistent has run well all year, you couldnt really say the horse is well handicapped but this is an easier race than its had for a while. The stable had two winners last week for this apprentice and the course and distance and again draw is fine


£10 win s star 20-1 general
£10 win Lujeanie 25-1 general

thanks all

early look at tommorow decent looking card at my beloved southwell

2.00 is a class 6 mile event

the exposed ones that run here all winter could win but trying to predict some of those is nigh on impossible. I like MUBTADI at 9-1 first time in this bottom grade has been running in much better races all season trainer appears to have turned the corner and more importantly dr fong the sire has a more than decent record here. I suspect the horse is more than a bit quirky but sometimes the time to catch these types are first run here hopefully will be ridden more aggressively than of late. CHRONIC FLAME is also by a good southwell sire is unexposed good trainer (rare to send one here) and is worthy of a saver at 5-1


£30 win MUBTADI 9-1 BET365 £10 WIN CHRONIC FLAME 5-1 BET365

probably at least one  more bet there tommorow to come

on a rare night off from poker im gonna spend some solid time on the southwell card, and go through some videos (may aswell get some usage from the RP subs) hope you dont mind me sharing my thoughts.

Looking forward to this, should make some interesting reading.  Might even fire a few in myself as I quite enjoy Southwell. 

the 1.30 looks like there will be a lot of pace on early bold marc (2) thrust control (4) rizcar (1)  auto mac (3) all like to lead or be close to the pace and the race may fall into one of the only progressive runners in the field in the shape of No Diminion. He will probably be held up in midfield and try and cruise up to the lead later than he did last time when he won 1/2l after idling with the pair drawing 7 clear. However, theres no way in my mind 7/2 can represent value and although i thought that auto mac needed headgear on its latest run at newcastle, which is has today in the form of first time cheek pieces, i think there might be too much pace on and set the race up for something off the pace. Im basically taking a flyer on General tufto who has won 8 times over C+D the last 6 coming off higher marks than this.
The gelding looks to have been running over the wrong distance recently on turf, and its seen his AW mark drop 5lbs. Back over beloved 8f at southwell and with the race panning out as id hoped i think e/w at 20/1 is a very fair price. The worry obviously is that there are a few progressive types (georgio's dragon, and no dominion) and obviously GT is exposed, but at 20s i could see him running a race.

 e/w general tufto  1.30 southwell. 20/1 at 365 at the time of typing.


after suddenly realising how much effort this form malarkey is ive decided on an early night lol.

 :D

Nice write up, if you had have kept going you could have saved me some time lol. 

That said, i couldn't have your selection just now until it had shown me it was back in love with the game, it seems out of sorts and perhaps bringing it back to Southwell might just do the trick. 

For me, the selection would have been Eastern Hills if it were near the tissue price of 12/1 but 4/1 its a definite swerve, considering it has made the frame once in its last 10 attempts.  You could argue he was unlucky to be swamped for a place last time out at Wolves.  As normal he was up with the early pace but never quite got home against a few finishing powerfully.  Like you say though there is likely to be some early pace from some of the inside stalls so Eastern Hills might get a nice sit from 7 and be able to kick on, but could also be vulnerable to a hold up type.  I though No Dominion looked a comfortable enough winner 3 weeks back over C&D, had to overcome a very wide draw that say and is slightly better off today.  So the penalty may not be enough to stop him following up.  Again though at the price it's hard to recommend a bet. 

There are literally negatives over the majority of the field.  In all honesty it's probably not a betting race for me and I would be interested to see if Horseplayer sticks anything up in this race as it seems to have all the hallmarks of a race he would select something in which is not mentioned in the betting.

If I was forced into picking one, I would likely bet Master of Song.  It seems to like the surface, its versatile in trip and might be happy to get a nice position off a fairly strong pace. 

Good write ups guys, lets hope The General can re-find some form, he has a decent claimer on his back for once.

Tufto owned and trained by two mates of mine.

I am out shooting today, don't have one of those fancy i-phones so can't update you with their thoughts.

But nothing has been mentioned at the moment.

Good Luck

 

the problem with the 1.30 is full of so much pace that quite often the jockeys/connections see this and change tactic,

however at southwell it is generally the case you want to be up with the pace the race is full of horses who run better here than anywere else if i had to id take a flyer on something like the general but i wouldnt be confident at all..


mubtadi is now the favourite which looks encouraging

This is a posting from terry norman (ex jockey agent) who has recently taken over the race planning for the yard

"Thoughts on Mubtadi at Southwell

Mubtadi  2.00 Southwell

It appears looking at the form that he has been disappointing but there has been mitigating circumstances. He doesn’t like soft ground ( I wasn’t doing the planning then) and when he ran at Redcar a downpour in the morning resulted in the ground changing to good.

But the main reason for the run at Redcar was that he was ill the next day. The upside is that the handicapper dropped him another 4lbs. Thus meaning not only does he run off his lowest mark ever of 65 but also is able to run in a 0-65 for the first time.

The surface will hold no terrors – his sire Dr Fong has impressive strike rate at Southwell – and there will be a change of tactics. The horse has been ridden differently at home (from the front) and that will be the plan unless El Dececy or Elusive Warrior go off too fast.

Ismail  doesn’t presently have that many older horses in the yard to run – we have just 7 to run over the winter with more arriving in January – so the criteria is that each race has to be carefully planned. A 33% strike rate in September has been beaten by 50% per cent rate in October is testimony.

It’s not a strong race and the horse has been working much better with the likes of Light Burst (rated 80) in recent weeks. The drop in grade will help a horse that has had problems but still has a touch of class for this company.
"

Great thread, not sure if I have posted here.

But a few questions (feel free not to answer if too personal) as I enjoy a good bet on the horses a couple afternoons a week.

1) What would be your average spend on a meeting/day?

2) What kind of backer are you? I like to smash in the odds on favourites 5-6 times a day and still not see any massive return.

3) How much time do you spend studying? I look at this and I can't remember horses names and how they ran previously and probably go on reading Racing Post on app or in shop post.

4) Do you see profit?

Yes not every year 4 out of 5 years doing it full time , as somebody more famous than me once said "its a hard way to make an easy living" or something like that. As i posted on another thread recently i made more money in my full time job but i hated every second of it.

no problem

action man you mentioned about the racing post videos

not sure if you or anybody else is aware but sportinglife.com now have videos for all tracks available for free

not a big fan of the racingpost myself cancelled my sub recently.

I subscribe to flatstats which is a stats based website and a good base to work from (not the be all and end all). I use a database a friend has developed which is a lighter version of raceform interactive (very good product but pricey and brings even a new pc to halt)

I also have lots of horses in nag me alerts`

There are two of interest for me at Southwell today, mostly because I had my fingers burnt pretty badly by them on previous runs.  

ALWILDA - 2:30 - I posted this as a selection on the Tips For Tikay thread as one of my first recommended bets.  I was impressed by it's debut performance at Kempton, it done best of Sir Mark's lot when the stable wasn't firing in the winners.  It then races at Ayr and flopped badly asa favourite.  I was at Ayr that day and to my eye it looked like it never liked the surface, pre-race the horse sweated up quite a bit but unfortunately by that point my bets were on.  If it translates polytrack run over to the fibre then I think it should be good enough to beat the others.  Worryingly though it doesn't seem as if much has come out of that first race, only the 2nd placed horse has gone on to win. The price as also started to drift which would worry me, I like to see support for Prescott horses.  I can see Fallon trying to get a lead on Roman Order and this setting the race up for either Alwilda or Dude Alert - who put in a decentish performance on debut.  

5:10 - JOHN COFFEY - I liked everything about this horse when it ran an encouraging race at Redcar back in August it seemes as if the penny was starting to drop.  Next time up though it badly disappointed as favourite,but I think it done too much too early that day and just weakened out the race.  It ran a better race at Wolverhampton last time when heavily backed.  But again we can't survive on getting on 8/1 shots that go off at 3's.   This horse does look like the type that Dandy will squeeze some further improvement out of and he will get a win, will that be today?  The race is full of exposed types and a few seem to do well at this course.  The big negative for me is the jockey, I know its an apprentice race but this girl gives me the fear.

Loving this thread more every post, i can't contribute anything other than gee eels thou..

gl all :)

wow 13/8 no dominion

close....

Looks like a nice winter horse.  Be lucky to get any sort of price.

hands and heels all the way as well

had that in my tissue at about 4-1

the late money here suggests tregonnings is pretty strongly fancied

2-00 - A field that consists mostly of exposed runners and course plodders.  I can't see many that are likely to improve on anything they have done previously.  The exceptions would likely be Chronic Flame or Maz.  Chronic Flame has to be respected coming from a top yard who have a fairly decent record when they venture to this track.  But the early drift concerned me, there has been some support for it since it drifted.  The big plus for me is the sire, it has proven to have offspring that do well on this type of surface.  For a horse that has likely improvement in it and coming from a sire that has shown to do well this makes this one a bet for me.  Maz is also the type that will go well here I think, has progressed well on the Polytrack, doesn't have too many miles on the clock and comes from a stable that knows the time of day.  It has also seen some support with the books and exchange.  

Maz beaten in first furlong.

Ever heard of use 'racing research' ratings? thoughts?

Gl with thread

mmm not particularly happy with that

lied to far back imo but hardly looked a winner waiting to happen in the last two furlongs

no

thoughts would be using "ratings" (i presume speed ratings?) are ok as a base but wont work on there own

not speed ratings, more of a form rating, pretty well regarded but agree anyting like that cant be used in isolation...

two more at southwell

4.40

RAYVIN BLACK £15 WIN 12-1 GENERAL

POSITIVES = Sire used to do ok here for whatever reason is 10-34 last 2 years massive improvement and not just by one horse maybe an anomaly but 8 different horses probably not this coincides with roughly when the track was relaid

Sire reacts well to first time headgear

Tompkins the trainer is in decent enough form

NEGATIVES = has zero form really in tougher races

tompkins hasnt had a winner here for ages but used to do really well here

5.10 POSEIDON GREY £15 WIN 12-1 GENERAL

POSITIVES=

sire again does well here and has improved last few season

trainer in very good form after a quiet spell

has been running ok after finally starting to settle in its races

NEGATIVES=

looks a bit limited really but this is a poor race


Both speculative but worth chancing in tough races

ahhh well on to the next one!

someone backed it

14-1 into 13-2

you cant eat value e.t.c

last one for tonight

its a bit of a long shot but there are reasons why it could run better than 25-1

BEST IN SHOW WOLVERHAMPTON 9.10 £20 WIN 25-1 GENERAL


POSITIVES =

Main one is the last run which appears to have been missed in the comments in the formbook. If you have time or as boring as me watch the run 1.5 furlongs out it is travelling best and probably looking most likely to win the race , this was the second run back from a long lay off and also only its second run after leaving the abysmal john hills outfit.

Horses leaving john hills nearly always improve eventually. The drop in trip looks fine based on last time the apprentice is a decent jockey

NEGATIVES =

Trainer not in good form


You cant have everything but even with the doubts this looks more of a 12-1/14=1 shot to me

On at 54/1 on machine.  Gogogo.

I did actually like Avon Supreme myself. 

bad bad day

tommorow looks a quiet one though as always will post if anything crops up with fresher eyes later

running total = £ 1502.12

couple of bad days but still a decent enough start

The three at southwell today all started shorter and in one case a lot shorter shame nobody told the horses :)

had a look at the turf as two decent meetings today


3.50 doncaster TIGER CLIFF 6-1 VCBET £35 WIN

progressive, unexposed breeding suggests softer ground the better great trainer tbh i am surprised it isnt favourite



5.10 newbury ARCH EVENT 7-1 GENERAL (BETFRED 8-1 BUT THEY DONT COUNT) £20 WIN

quietly progressive stayer for a resurgent yard this season ground ideal trip should suit based on running style most of the rivals either look gone or wont like the ground

2nd and a 3rd so far

tiger cliff ran well and was slightly unlucky to bump into one

arch event went 6 wide throughout and considering the horrible ride did well to get 3rd


more to come tonight

TOUGHNESS DANON 6.40 WOLVERHAMPTON 9-2 £25 WIN

a bit of a dog but ran best race ever in tongue tie two back got a very strange ride last time and gets tongue tie back on tonight get the feeling tonight is the night for this one if there ever will be

one of those days so far on another day at least 2 could have won

8.10 HARD ROAD 4-1 £30 win general

quietly progressive horse from a good stable did well to win last time considering the pace was non existent and i am amazed it isnt at least joint favourite here

a very small profit for the day after that nice winner won well looks potentially a decentish horse

the last has a bet in it but im still waiting for the market to settle i put up goal before but sub 2-1 is silly in here, thread favourite thane of cawdor has gone down in trip which isnt ideal but the form behind hard road last time now looks better and it could get an easyish lead here

9.10 wolverhampton THANE OF CAWDOR £20 WIN 7-1

sounds like a betting shop punter but if anybody has any idea what mickey fenton was doing there please let me no

7-1 into 4-1 slowly away never nearer hands and heels of a slow slow pace

the formbook said there was no pace on at all

sorry about that rant

anyway big day tommorow lots of good action lets hope for the rub of the green

cheers will update in morning

will update totals tonight just these two for today as off out now

Pretty keen on Marshgate Lane today . Has found the flow of the race against him the last twice, but the way he made a massive move last time on a track that was heavily favouring speed suggests he is still very well handicapped. Likes soft ground, this track suits hold up horses, trip and grade look ideal. 8/1 is too big.

At Newbury, Blue Surf probably raced on the slower part of the track last time. Think he's on a fair mark still and Excellent Art's runners have a fantastic record on soft ground.



£35 WIN MARSHGATE LANE 8-1 BLUESQ 2.00 DONCASTER

£20 WIN BLUE SURF 13-2 GENERAL NEWBURY 3.45

thanks all

gl :)

nice to get a winner

just one tonight

KITTENS 9.15 WOLVERHAMPTON £40 WIN 5-1 GENERAL

conditions look ideal, well drawn, in form, good speed-figure last time one worry is the trainer who i dont like anyway is 0-26 recently however most have been complete rags and before that he was doing fine.

arguably this horse could have won its last three is closely related to 3 horses who won at wolverhampton so if anything the surface will help not hinder

a good day :)

Horsey is on FIRE!

mildly warm sir fire is a bit strong :)

but thanks

much better day

blue surf only just won but won well the sire has now developed a massive rep for soft ground performances and the horse probably has more to give if needed (novemeber handicap anyone?) settled at 7-1 as it drifted late

the goldophin thing made a decent middle move then stopped like it was injured

kittens doesnt make it easy (touched 100-1 in running) and never looked to get involved until the last half a furlong helped to be chasing a horse that wears basically a whole sheep on its head :) horse is quietly progressive and might one day win a race easily at this level

tommorow is a day away from the computer im knackered and still feeling ill and there is no flat racing :)

thanks all

running total = £ 1857.12

nothing to do with anything but just seen this clip again

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WmzbEW1oSWc


harchibald like me very quirky :)

and a comedy clip for a saturday night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVMY-VX7NyA

Quite often so far i have mentioned trainer form as one of the more key elements to my bets

This unfourtantley isnt as simple as saying Trainer a is 6=22 the last two weeks and is thus in form. Very unlikely but if trainer a has had 18 horses start sub evens then he isnt really in form.

A much better way of gauging trainer form is by using a a/e calculation (against expectation) If a trainer has had 50 runners without a win but the market has deemed the majority 20-1+ bigger shots is he really out of form? Well yes he is but not against expectation or by not a great deal anyway.

Perhaps the most important factor is if the media are all constantly stating "trainer a is in red hot form" it is probably to late as this will be factored in. In the mostly lower grades that i back in if you can spot a new or smaller trainer whose 50-1 rags are managing to finish in or close to the money you can assume they are in form or at least not out of it and have a vague idea what they are doing and are probably capable of training a winner if the horse is good enough.

I try and avoid trainers who constantly underachieve against a/e season after season. This illustrates one of either two things (or both) The trainer isn't very good or just as likely the trainer or his workforce are constantly driving down the price of his runners due to such statements as "working well at home"

An example of this is somebody like Jeremy Noseda who without doubt can train a horse. However his runners constantly are overbet according to the stats i use and more often than start shorter than his record suggests they do. The yard is notoriously leaky for information as my old man told me a few years ago now "if the stable lad really knew this horse was a 85 rated animal why is he still getting up at 5am every day to shovel shit?"


 

nothing today

there is going to be at least 3 bets in total tommorow i think

pretty sure the prices will hold up but im putting one up now

7.10 WOLVERHAMPTON SHESTHEMAN  7-1 £30 WIN

i think it'll go forward and be ridden more aggressively over this distance, they dropped it in last time over this trip because it was in stall 12 better draw tommorow night is definitely at least fairly handicapped this race looks a lot weaker than its last two expect it to be near fav come the off

I like a rag in the race to but cant see it being backed so will wait for hopefully 33-1 tommorow

2.50 CATTERICK  £25 WIN SPHINX 11-2 LADDIES OR BET VICTOR

right not often a 14 year old is a good bet but if you can ignore this tough old boys age then he is the best horse in this race. Loves the ground travelled like a dream last time in a much better race won on 3rd start back after a long break last season (3rd start after long break today) loves to win should be laughing at these younger rivals and hopefully wont need to come of the bridle

6.10 already have the main bet but i have added THUNDERSTRUCK 28-1 general £10 win

trainer in much better form has won on all weather before at big prices may get an easyish lead looks overpriced

13-2 on betfair

yep

i am not quoting exchange prices as generally speaking in the races i bet in the liquidity is shocking until the off

fairer if i quote a price "most" can get on at

Assume a 14yr old drifting wouldnt worry you anyway? As explained in Moneyball it fits the bill of something thats going to be undervalued based on perceived physical flaws

Ah OK. Thanks.

correct

its one of those races the fact it is 14 years old is almost irelevant

the last run was better than anything else any other horse did in this race

the horse has had 41 flat starts which isnt anymore than the average 6 or 7 year old at this level

poor old boy :(

hope he is ok

mmm well backed into clear favourite nice position then found a load of trouble and presumably got struck into or something


last one for tonight a bit speculative

8.10 wolverhampton KAYLEE 16-1 GENERAL £20 WIN

the fav i respect but looks a little short now, the selection is still unexposed ran over to far last time hated the soft ground and brighton the time before that and showed some promise the three all weather runs before that (backed into fav twice significant from a shrewd yard)

Has a lot to prove but the yard is in much better form now than when it last run on the all weather

Did it find any trouble or get bumped into, replays seemed inconclusive and Jockey looked like he didn't fancy it, strange.

almost looked like durcan "bottled" going for the inside even though he was already maybe he felt the horse had gone wrong im not sure will watch again overnight

not a good day

first two ran shockers last selection ran well still looked either green or awkward but can probably win a low grade race


running total = £ 1782.12


tommorow looks potentially a busy day lets see

Quality judge on twitter putting up Secretinthepark 7.05 Kempton @ 7/2.

Looks like it could have been let in lightly off 79, good jockey booking, in form yard and the runner up in his maiden win ran well twice subsequently before hating the ground last time.

gd lk horneris with that


12.50 NOTTINGHAM £30 WIN CAPTAIN CARDINGTON 5-1

scuppered us last time showing a great attitude like most of the stables runners the step up to 2 miles should suit on breeding and west seems to get them to stay regardless anyway (alfraamsey and hi note were both 1 mile at max horses before going to her) the fav is an obvious danger but 5-1 is at least a point to big

Sigh now 5/2

See Kauto Star has been retired today.

rare i have a bet in a ladies amateur rider event but here goes


3.35 nottingham MONTHLY MEDAL £20 WIN 6-1 GENERAL

had a note on this one from last time in the wolver race got a very strange trip and then was never nearer at the finish, has plenty of soft ground form

nice shout

Sweet

Well Done.

Great shout mate, that was a brilliant run and ride

Given a beautiful ride.

Hats off.

thank you all very kind

Well done horsey, if ya have anything for tomoz I'll join ya.. Had a couple of days off but it feels wrong ;)

great stuff Horse.

the last two at kempton have potential bets just waiting to see how market develops

So.

I backed this - first time EVER I've had a bet on this thread, even though I read it every day. Most impressive, how can I lose?

I lose.

I go & do the allotment thing.

I return to find your NEXT bet has hacked up, & everyone is on it.

Someone's having a laugh.

:)

was going to post this tonight

was a guy looked a bit like you in the bookies i watched this race in (different town to were i usually am)

according to him it was all bent and the jockey (fallon was on apparantley even though he wasnt) and he didnt try hard enough

as i left he gave me a tip for a virtual greyhound that was "unlucky" in running last time

:)

Lol, bless!

Great thread bud.

without being to rude he smelt of "natural substances"

also saw two youngsters kicking the machine in or trying to

quite an eye opener wouldn't work in one for any money these days....

If he punts Virtual Greyhounds, he probably has a leak.

very good

What was the tip and how did it do? If it failed to win, we could cash in next time.

 ;laxie;

Shush, get over to Fred, where I've done a photo-montage just for you.

Don't bet any of dogs in the Colin Wellsey kennel at Millersfied at the moment.

Kennel has got a computer virus.

Excellent!

 ;applause; Camel

no bets tonight

dithered and dithered and dithered a bit more in the next then remembered if you are dithering this much there is always tommorow

early one for tommorow

CEREMONIAL JADE 8-1 PADDY POWER (7-1 OK) 2.20 LINGFIELD

lovely veteran travelled the best of anything on return from a break at yarmouth last time and then blew up may have one last win in the tank

winner winner  ;applause;

a good day

the ladies race the horse travelled best throughout the rider didnt panic when the fav kicked on two out and won nicely in the end

running total = £1892.12

the above includes tommorows £20 bet already

thanks all

be rude not to heres kauto's best moment well for me anyway

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHl9VqR3gww

have a nice retirement you tough old thing

some really good racing at lingfield today

not much of interest though and lingfield i am going steady on due to the new surface

looks unlikely anything at kempton at this stage either

been doing a lot of work for the breeders cup in helping a friend who has written for the american publication horseplayer (good eh? :)

will post up any thoughts on the breeders on the tips for tikay thread probably tonight

You've had a nice little run lately horsey but I seem to have missed all of your lovely winners :(

I might have to start charging you a fee to keep not backing them.

I look forward to this. I love to get stuck into the Breeders Cup and am babysitting after my 4 year old little bro Saturday night so will be watching it avidly and punting away.

Although I am a keen studier of the form book in domestic races I find it hard to judge the American and Japanese horses, as a rule usually just end going fairly blindly with unbeaten unexposed outsiders.

This is now 17-1 on the exchanges. What's happened??

it is an old boy and there are plenty of unexposed against it

yard are not a particular gambling yard wouldnt worry me unduly

The word got out that I was on.

poor run from c jade drifted like a barge but that was probably due to me reading the race incorrectly

was held up out the back made some late progress how he gets at least one win in a claimer this winter that he deserves to bow out on

running total = £1892.12

two races maximum tommorow lets wait and see

have posted my breeders cup thoughts so far on tft

2.10 newmarket £25 win VARNISH 8-1 (general)

Progressive horse over middle distances blatantly didnt stay last time and the market seems to think thats that for the season.

Very consistent all career apart from one run at brighton (excuse anything there) its a tough race i have it a 6-1 shot


6.15 wolverhampton £30 win PENANG PEGASUS 12-1 william hill

Quite shocked this is a 12-1 shot in here. Horse is still unexposed got shut out at beverley last time break since is a bit of a worry but is from a good stable and is bred all ends up to be a polytrack horse

not a good day

varnish ran really really well is tough as anything went 1-2 in running but was just beaten

penang was well backed late but stalls trouble seemed to end the race before it had begun

running total = £1836.12

having re problems with internet connection last few days so will post anything for tommorow as and when

nothing today

will put up anymore breeders thoughts on tft later

possibly something tommorow the novemeber handicap at leopardstown is a cracker

waiting for the weather and to see what the ground is like first though

nothing today

looks like another blank day

will update if anything in the last at wolver

will leave the last the barney horse has put me off the fancy and i try not to play in races he might be playing in

there is a possible max bet at southwell tommorow hopefully the very early prices will reflect this later on today

3.10 southwell IRISH JUGGER 9-2 VCBET £50 WIN

reasoning late be amazed if price lasts before 7pm

price seems to have gone, 7/2 still worth a bet?

that didnt take long

in my opinion yes a 5-2 shot in my book

reasoning

horse loves southwell

horse is well handicapped again

horse has moved to probably pound for pound the best trainer in the country (big claim but backed up by recent form)

the current fav has a chance especially as the sire usually goes well here and is in good form

i would expect irish jugger to be just favourite by the off

paddy power are 9-2 if its any good to anyone else :(

im going in again with PP lol.  Been following this thread since the start and although i mainly lurk on the  forum I back quite alot of the tips in  various threads, keep up the good work horsey.

thank you sir

i always try and respond to all messages and really appreciate them all keeps the thread going

Horsey

I asked earlier in the thread, page 1.

Why do you do high priced horses to win sometimes, when there is room  and enough runners to do them each way.

I am not querying your strategy, just intrigued by your motive.

hi typhoon

i will answer this tonight in detail it is rather raw at present after backing the second and third win only in the melbourne cup this morning at 50-1 and 100-1 respectably

3.30 REDCAR MASKA PONY 7-1 GENERAL £20 win

Is a solid hurdler but has never run over a longer trip on the flat breeding says will be ideal and in the context of this race is unexposed ground is fine some solid but beatable opposition

another £40 win IRISH JUGGER 3.10 SOUTHWELL 5-1 GENERAL

once again horsey, your a genius  ;tightend; ;tightend; ;tightend;

Stumbled on this thread a few days ago.

V impressed. ty

a bit strong but thanks

not me the trainer in absolutely sparkling form

drifted like a barge as well so settled at 11-2 (very nice)

not a gambling stable just like winners not a great ride either got stuck behind a 5 furlong horse went 180 lengths wide and won easily basically pulled up

Great call Horsey

Good shout horsey and I didn't even bok it either. :)

 

Thanks for sharing today's tips.

One of your growing band of followers

Thanks horsey! Loved the drift

Do you play poker?

swear somehow i back every loser and miss all the winners

Not just me then :)

Ooh, hello!

cracking day

really pleased for mick appleby another example of his talent the horse was well handicapped as i pointed out earlier in the thread i am trying my best to not back "big" gambling yards this winter as it makes the game easier.

Quite why i was running around like a blue arsed fly last night getting on at 9-2 then is a bit beyond me :)

The other horse ran well but the winner won easily think the bet was fine though.

Tommorow looks a day of maybe a couple of small bets nothing more, i need some sleep now been up most of the night





running total = £2401.12 (settled irish jugger at 11-2)

sorry for delay typhoon

just as i read this morning i had been awake all night having stayed up watching the melbourne cup meeting in aus from 11pm until 3.45am the race was at 4am and i fell asleep

ended up watching it at about 5.30? recorded freezing cold knackered and seeing two horses i had backed at 50-1 and 100-1 second and third and horses i had backed in small exactas and tricasts fill 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th

If that doesnt get you annoyed nothing will, its moments like that wehn i sometimes think what the hell am i doing? How many people are watching this race at this time feeling as bad or worse? On reflection more than i originally though at 6am this morning.

It is very rare i let things stay with me but until about 2pm today i couldnt shake of the potential massive win and it was making me wary of backing irish jugger again in truth i had less on myself than i would have last night the dangers of punting with a tired, mixed up head are massive.

Anyway your question why win only? Simple answer is it makes me more money than each way betting has ever done (based on last 5 years) Yes losing runs can be longer, but when i find a 20-1 winner i need it to count to the maximum it can.

Sorry this is a bit muddled i am shattered and heading for a sleep very soon :)

very rarely these days mainly because whenever i do play online i feel i am massively weaker than most players. I used to play a fairish bit 6 or 7 years ago and didnt show a loss

play maybe twice a month live in a lovely small club near to me enjoy that a lot

Just wondered how you found this forum..

good question that

i saw a link posted on twitter and had a read of the thread it linked to (Cant remember which one but it was interesting) and went from there

Great stuff again Horse, loving your work.

Note to self, need to start reading before the races tho.

I think the win only at big prices is good because looking thru your bets you are finding something you like about the horses that makes the price attractive, you know that a lot of them will blow out so don't need/want the place bets and as you say when you find the winner you have twice as much on. I  do the same if I am betting on a golf event,  would rather have 6 darts at finding the winner at big prices than 3 ew bets because there are so many golfers that don't contend each week at the prices I tend to bet at that the place part doesn't interest me.

Thankyou

2.10 nottingham YOUGOGIO 20-1 BET365 PADDY POWER £15 WIN

now this is a speculator

has shown nothing in 3 runs so far

has moved from one low % trainer to another

the "angle" in here is the trainer who has the horse now has won with horses making first start for him from other yards 3 times in recent years from 8 runners all at big prices

My theory is it is probably very tough for him to get owners and he wants to make a fast start with them

of course the horse probably has no/little ability but in a race this poor i will take a chance.


BET CANCELLED WAS TO BUSY PONCING AROUND POSTING ON HERE AND THE PRICE WENT 12-1 IS ABOUT RIGHT FOR THE RISK INVOLVED

into 7s

a nice miss

was well backed again late and travelled well and stopped quickly

probably some more later

Kempton 16:55
ELLEMUJIE

10-1 general £20 win (take 14-1 sportingbet if u can)

not much time but i cant have the fav being 2-1 against these the bet looks slightly overpriced after a shocker on heavy ground last time more than happy to ignore that as hates soft ground normally runs well here

I'm on Sakhees Pearl in this. Uh oh.

i was on the FAV. Uh oh oh oh.

Barzalona wants his firkin arse kicking

ul

should have won 4 lengths

Unlucky Horsey

All boxed in with nowhere to go.

mmm possibly dont think had the pace to get the gap tbh and possibly needed one more run for prime fitness

6.25 kempton ASTROSCARLET £20 WIN 10-1 GENERAL


tough looking open race

have been waiting for this horse to run over this trip for a while every single run just looks like an out and out stayer i never get the trainer right so just a small bet and its a tough race

Barzalona finally gets it right with Lilac tree.

quite day not a good one

first selection ran well second didnt really


Running total = £2361.12

if anything will be at wolver in the evening as still not touching lingfield which is a shame as a few horses i have in my alerts are running there but im just watching the surface until at least december

nothing today

some interesting races at wolver but no prices i think are wrong by a great deal

hopefully something i like in the 7.20 will drift between now and the off

swerved a loser in the 7.20 due to price always nice

7.50 WOLVERHAMPTON

typical low grade sprint have backed two win only against the favourite who can often dog it in a finish

Gran Canaria Queen 11-2 vcbet or two others £20 win

basically consistent here ignore the run on heavy last time (and even that wasnt awful) trainer not one of my favourites but good claimer booked and is sure to make a bold bid to make most

legal Eagle 25-1 general £15 win (betfair bigger)

in no really form but the trainer is had a 25-1 winner and a 40-1 in the last six runners , its hard to see were it can win from but has some backclass and in these low grade races im looking for something the market hopefully hasnt spotted

the rogue wins :(

never mind a couple of early bird ones for tommorow

11.50 DONCASTER £20 WIN CASELA PARK 9-1 BET365

one of the more interesting horses in trainer landed the trainer and jockey lifetime bans after a not off effort at newcastle way back when since then in a small way they have been vindicated as more than once the horse has dogged it when the going gets tough

however has moved to david o meara and from what i can gather this has been the plan for a while, best form is on a straight track the handicap mark is obviously fine and i will be surprised if it is anything like this price in the morning


12.45 SANDOWN FOXBRIDGE £20 WIN 15-2 VCBET

a very rare jumps bet, long absence no concern for henderson trust it is over whatever happened at ascot and looks fairly handicapped

running total = £2326.12

Any thoughts on the November Handicap, horseplayer?

Does it always take a well-drawn horse that can stay 1m6? If so, are Songcraft and Bridle Bell value?

Not seeking a derail; just advice :)

From a starting bank of £1,000 - awesome!

hi tal

as ever it looks a very hard race havent got a massively strong view am having another look at it now will post anything i think later on

Looks like big gamble on foxbridge - gl

both bets start at 50% or lower than price backed at

both run stinkers

nothing else today fwiw tal i ike kirthill in the novemeber handicap but nothing in the price for me

Thanks, HP.

poor day beat the price twice by a mile horses didnt realise

casela park is still an absolute dodgepot of the highest order hung throughout

the henderson horse ran like he had forgot to put the drugs he uses (ahem) in the right way round

no all weather until wednesday :(










running total = £2286.12

i posted after irish juggers absolute hack up the other day that m appleby was the best pound for pound trainer in the country at present

i got one or two pm's disagreeing which is fine

today he has won the november handicap with a horse bought for 600 pounds and rated 55

first run for the stable came 9th in one of the worst class 6 handicaps you will ever see at warwick

is now going to be at least 50lbs higher

Chuffed to bits for the lad, his family used to come from where i live, Wombwell. His Dad runs a bar in Ibiza.

yes the reason i have taken to him is he has plenty of massive priced winners and plenty that drift and have won or run well in low grade races

spent a fair amount of time on southwells wednesday card today/tonight

now going to my old mans tommorow night

will hopefully be back before wednesday afternoon but prices may have gone

family comes first though :)

maybe something at kempton later but southwell a right off due to lack of time (thanks southern rail your utter idiots)

couple of early ones for tommorow

2.50 SOUTHWELL £20 WIN INVESTMENT WORLD 12-1 BETFRED/TOTESPORT

has course form with a good stable ran a really good race on debut for tim vaughan over 2 miles pulled like stink throughout and still ran ok until last 2 furlongs trip course mark all look fine looks slightly overpriced in an open race

6.25 KEMPTON £30 WIN JUNKET 20-1 GENERAL

amazed by this price dont think the horse is thrown in far from it but has been in better races the last twice and definitely shaped as if still in form at the very least unexposed on all weather good form here draw not good is my negative

HP. What are your thoughts on Big Bay in same race as Junket?

It has a tremendous record at Kempton when JCH puts a decent jockey on over 8f and I had been waiting for these conditions. Won off. 85 over C&D and races off 67 tomorrow. Decent draw, and whilst Durcan my not be my fav, he is strong enough for the job.

looked at the horse for a long time mate as is one of my favourite animals

i am worried however that last two starts has looked a lot quirkier than previously

Chap I play pool with just said "I've got a tip for ya" then showed me "King George 26.12 CUE CARD 9-1"

Nearly fell off my chair laughing. Not a bad horse but even I know 9-1 is not a 'plough in' price ante post against Grands Crus and Long Run.

Junket is now bp 6/1, gl Horsey

Is that just blondes if it's an evening meeting? :)

braindead from havlin

no idea if horse could have would have won

slowly away

rushed up 4 out to use most if its energy

they had walked up top anyway

annoying

any views on Relentless Harry in the 7.55 HP? I was told by someone that it had been held up in its last few races and it could be good to win today. 

two in the tricky last

KAKAPUKA 14-1 GENERAL £20 WIN

drops back to a class 5 loves kempton hated the cheekpieces the last twice and was probably running over to far first time hood has a better chance of having a positive effect than any other headgear (so far) not that it needs anything like the run back in july in a london mile qualifier basically wins this, trainer had a jump winner today

TENBRIDGE 40-1 GENERAL £15 WIN

consistent 3 year old stable i feel is possibly going to hit form soon hopefully just needed run last time after a longish break

unexposed trainer in form current price looks about right to me

running total = £2201.12

4 bets 3 ran shockers junket most frustating even with the non runners beat the price easily

Not a tip for today, but one going off soon that I like the look of (AT SHORT PRICE 13/8), called La Calinda at Newcastle in the 2.35.

Looks a lot better over the distance than nearest horse, who doesn't seem no good over longer distance. Looks a two horse race for me, but going with above, think it has a lot more in hand regarding distance.

lol??

its never run over 2m4

I know, but isn't going well at 2m - impressively better at 2m6. Second fav a bit standard with regards to 2m, but not more impressive over 2m4 & not out to 9/4.

edit - What a rubbish race

Several incoming PM's have asked me why horsey is not around right now.

I sent a PM to horsey 5 or 6 days ago, on behalf of the regulars here, asking if all was well, as it is so unlike him not to be around.

He replied yesterday.

In brief, his Mum has been very unwell for some time, & was receiving care, but she has taken a turn very much for the worse, & horsey has now relocated to be with his Mum 24/7 & look after her as best as he is able.

He has a clear priority here, but as an aside, he makes a living from betting, & that has to go on the back-burner for the foreseeable future now.

His note thanked me for our interest, & asked me to pass on his best to everyone.   

Thoughts afre with you mate. Hope all is well soon.

+1

Hope everything works out as well as it can.  Thoughts are with you.

Wishing you the very best.

+1

All the best Horse!

Family comes first at times like this, hope everything works out in the end.

Hope things turn out for the best, take care.

feel very humbled by the messages of support

thanks to tikay for putting my message on here

i have only been on this forum for a short period of time but have loved every minute.

I hope to come back as and when but certainly cant commit to a thread like this or the excellent quiz thread for the foreseeable future.

Sooner than later i will have to return to gambling as i need to generate some income somehow but i have not yet fathomed how i can do this whilst still having my new commitment.



Many many thanks to all

All the best to you and your mum horsey, we'll be thinking of you.

Hope everything turns out ok horsey, all the best.

Best wishes

Best wishes indeed.

Chin up Bud.

All the best Stu.

Best wishes, Mama Horseplayer and all your stable.

Best wishes to you HP

Hope things turn out well for you both mate.

All the very best to you and mum

Best wishes to you and yours

Geo

Best wishes to you all HP

My thoughts are with you and your family.

Will you be kick starting this thread Horsie

hi typhoon

not for a long while if at all

i would like to but i can not commit the time to study the form at present certainly not in enough detail for somebody to follow

i am still having the odd bet as i need to pay the bills so to speak

Thanks.

All the best sir