blonde poker forum

Guy's new to the table, don't have HEM running atm so no stats. Think I'm seen as overly aggro/ool in spots.

Thoughts on pre/post please.  Felt a bit lost. Folding pre with my image feels so dirty, but don't think it's good enough to 4b/c against an unknown:

PokerStars Hand #90992690078:  Hold'em No Limit (€0.25/€0.50 EUR) - 2012/12/19 14:44:44 WET [2012/12/19 9:44:44 ET]
Table 'Signe IV' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Meniluap (€55.32 in chips)
Seat 2: vivalefish (€65.05 in chips)
Seat 3: starrkkk (€60.09 in chips)
Seat 4: SoSick73 (€58.05 in chips)
Seat 5: tib0rk0vaX (€137.27 in chips)
Seat 6: GaterLeCoin (€50.75 in chips)
tib0rk0vaX: posts small blind €0.25
GaterLeCoin: posts big blind €0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to vivalefish [Tc Ts]
Meniluap: folds
vivalefish: raises €1 to €1.50
starrkkk: raises €3.50 to €5
SoSick73: folds
tib0rk0vaX: folds
GaterLeCoin: folds
vivalefish: calls €3.50
*** FLOP *** [2d 5s 6s]
vivalefish: checks
starrkkk: bets €7
vivalefish: calls €7
*** TURN *** [2d 5s 6s] [Js]
vivalefish: checks
starrkkk: bets €15
vivalefish: calls €15
*** RIVER *** [2d 5s 6s Js] [7c]
vivalefish: checks
starrkkk: bets €33.09 and is all-in

Hero?

seems wp vs a random if you folded river

Looking at his sizings on flop/turn I would be astounded had he not emptied the clip on a brick river. Does this therefore mean that if you are calling turn you should be calling river? I mean if part of the reason for calling turn is picking up the flush draw....I would think if he bombs a spade river you are probs beat....so if there is a point to pass it's perhaps the turn?

Would suggest if you're happy enough calling off on the end here then 4b/c Vs villain becomes feasible? This isn't to say that you should be doing either mind.

I'm going to chuck my hat into the ring and say that as played pre, fold turn. As played post, fold now.

true, but sometimes we river a flush and it goes check check and we win

** aware I'm a fish but this seems a good spot to ask... **

But if there are three spades out there, one in our hand and we assume none in his hand (for now).... that means spades account for 9 of the remaining 44 cards, making us a 3.89/1 poke to make a flush on the end.

The pot size is 39.75 when he bets the turn and we are being asked to call 15, for which we would have to be < 2.65/1 for this to be profitable?

This is of course if we are drawing solely to a flush...

I assume the logic is that sometimes once we call turn the river goes ck/ck and we are good with an unimproved pair of tens and that this is sufficiently common to justify the turn call?

** end fishiness **

I think it's reasonable to fold the turn btw, but yeh the logic is that there's a few different permutations we can win, not just one, so working out our pot odds isn't as simple.

the river can brick and he gives up with his bluffs/semi bluffs
the river can come a spade and he gives up with his bluffs OR checks back nonspade overpairs
the river can come a TEN and we can c/call allin and win a big pot. or just win what's already in the middle.
we could even hero call the spade river and win sometimes.

he can easily double barrel here holding As

for me fold turn or call call

Ok cool.

I'm pretty sure that I would play the hand exactly the same (can't see myself ever actually passing turn much as I think it's worth considering!) and then fold river, but good to hear/discuss justifications and consider alternatives for doing so rather than solely gut feel/autopilot :)

Cheers for the replies so far.

My thinking was that against a random on .fr, I think he's polarised to pretty much only value hands otr if he shoves, but can double barrel air on the turn. Was going to call spade rivers, though I think if I'm winning it almost always goes c/c otr. Thoughts?

Fish bet flop and turn and give up river pretty often in this spot so I think call turn, fold river is probably good here

calling 33 into 54 and we have 2nd pr - not folding river if i call turn

from reading your posts in PHA your not much of a believer are you?

Heh guy sure e can but we need I think of an overall range and include value combos as well as barreling combos an understand our equity va his overall range rather than just oh he could bluff here if he has as

lol

im lol'ing as its kinda true - but it can never be horrific calling it off here - especially in cash games

Patrick/Tom

I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn

Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+

the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)

From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape

My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload

It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river. I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts

statements like that are totally menaingless without information

If Im villain in this hand and I have Askx im 100% barrelling thru, because the hero is going to fold most of his pre flop peel range and I believe he would have raised the flop with a set. He cant have any nut flush draws and if he has a made flush god bless him

We also checked river - so what are we representing? What are we hoping villain checks back?

That statement was simply based on my experience of randoms at 50nl (where I've mostly been playing lately and have very good results).

We shouldn't really have a set on the flop (flatting the 3b with 22/55/66 doesn't seem great). It's hard to say exactly what flushes we should have here as we should have a very narrow range for flatting a largeish 3b oop but suited broadways and 88-QQ type hands are probably perceived to be in there a decent amount. So when we check the river we basically rep some flushes, some 1 pair hands and JJ. (This probably means that we shouldn't be calling turn too often with 1 pair assuming we are folding the river with it given we shouldn't have too many flushes as it would give him a pretty profitable river bluff but I don't think that matters against fish here and if we are gonna pick some 1 pair hands to do it with TsTx is one of the best we can use)

The fact that maybe villain should be bluffing with the As or that you are does in no way mean that he is. Randoms at 50nl don't tend to hand read well or understand their own ranges and are not thinking about how future streets should affect their decisions. A lot of them are probably pretty happy just to bluff the turn when it looks like a scary card and they have some equity but just give up when you call and they brick (it's hard to know exactly what goes through their heads). Again, my only basis for that is some experience playing 50nl and that without any information that feels best as a default.

As for "What are we hoping villain checks back?"; ideally something we beat

coulnt agree more - but it goes like this

Pre - woo hoo Ace King with a raise ahead
FLop - oh well gotta c-bet
turn - whoo - hoo he keeps checking and we got As
river - oh bugger - oh well we've come this far and hes checked - i mean what can he call with - Jam

Given your logic of playing 50nl and the statements you make, its a trivial turn fold on that board - becasue you are just hoping his top of range holdings dont contain a spade!

His value range seems like its poss quite thin at first glance, but without any read on his ability and no blockers to anything probably just fold river. Don't think calling is really terrible though and hand seems fine up to that point.

Folding river, most people aren't 3b pre then barrelling air. Probably too generalistic but I'm a nit.
Probably fold turn if possible. Just smacks of value town to me.

Essentially all this comes down to is a different impression we have of the level on which an average random at 50nl is thinking on. Neither of us really has any information to back this up, just making best guesses based on experience.

I'm not sure what leads from what I've said to making this a trivial turn fold. In fact I'm pretty sure if you we're trying to come up with a line based on my reads / best guesses you would come to the opposite conclusion (that its a pretty trivial turn call as I expect him to bluff the turn fairly frequently but the river infrequently). It's probably close given that a lot of his bluffs have decent equity vs us but I still think calling turn is probably a bit better than folding (but it's possible I'm wrong). I haven't done any maths / calculations to back this up or anything (and can't as I don't have access to my computer right now), I'm just doing some informed guessing.

Feel free to do some calculations and try to find the ranges that a turn call becomes break even against because otherwise this could just go round in circles forever and I'm not gonna say any more on it.

You're not making a big mistake to simply fold preflop vs an unknown.

Do you mean fold > call or its close to breakeven? Cool thread

I mean that there is not much in it either way. But probably folding is slightly better than calling. If we had opened UTG then folding is clearly correct without history/reads.

fold pre flop is standard here :)

Don't play 6 max cash online but really fold pre?

Yep, although it is fairly close so if you have any read at all you may have enough justification to deviate (e.g. if you have a read that villain is one and done with his cbets in 3bet pots and so will let you get to SD). But as a standard it is a fold. If you had opened UTG and been 3bet by MP then it is a completely trivial fold readless.

Is it really standard? Like, if i could poll every single 100nl reg on stars would they agree with standard? I understand what your saying about ev of decision etc, but saying standard isn't the same.

do you have a peeling range here?

if you have to raise fold TT to a 3bet, game select moar?

@ Titty
Not really... in fact the opposite could be said. If opponents are not 3betting you widely enough for you to need to continue with TT then you are in a good game.

@ TL900
You don't need to have a peeling range OOP at 50NL with around 100bb stacks. 4bet or fold is enough. At some point you need to do the difficult job of balancing two ranges - a 4betting range and a flatting range. But this is not necessary here.

What do you mean by this Stu?

I mean that at 50NL most regs have far too narrow 3betting ranges, especially vs EP opens. Basically they don't bluff enough. This is a good thing because it means we are not put in any tough spots with our mid strength hands. We rarely face heat with them, and thus when we do we can happily fold them. And in fact by so doing we are crushing our opponents through folding (punishing them for their overly tight 3betting ranges by denying them action).

When players start to have well-balanced polarised 3betting ranges vs our EP raises they put us in tough spots with hands like TT or AQ.

r/f TT is pretty fking exploitative.

Yes it is exploitative. We are exploiting our opponent's poorly constructed 3betting ranges by denying them action since their ranges are too light in bluffs.

I suspect you meant exploitable though, right? Well yes any exploitative strategy can also be exploited.

oh shit i missed a negative in your first post which reversed what you were saying in my head so was a bit confused!

ya I get that we can be exploited. the whole premise of r/f TT here means we are the one doing the exploiting!

Ok cool... I just thought you were saying the standard "omg, we are super exploitable if we fold TT here" etc etc. and you'd got your words confused. Should have given you more credit ;)

the standard, ie the correct decision to fold. alot of 100nl regulars will not fold though, but if they all played perfectly they all wouldnt play 100nl.

standard to me just means standard play.

like in a $3 if somebody posts a hand and we say standard its the standard line not what the most common line is.

yeah, qq, jj, aqs, ako

4betting ak is also probably ok, although calling is superior. qq/jj both standard calls rather than 4bets.

this is for 100nl games vs standard 100nl regs fwiw

opposite.

DUCY?

sok took me about 3 attempts to spell the fker! rofl

Completely agree with point 1.

Think you must have wrote point 2 incorrectly.

SO? its 100nl?

im actually tleted that ehret aer no spellngi mstiakse

ok i understand now.

It is actually 50NL. This makes a pretty big difference.

i disagree again, 50/100nl plays very similar.

have actually watched a big bunch of it recently and played some as I'm on a staking project with some aspiring 50-200nl players :)

Ok fair enough, I'll take your word for that.

What I meant by my point 2 is that someone working their way up the stakes can get away with not having a flatting range when out of position at 50NL and can be 4bet or fold. It is giving up very, very little (and in fact will actually be optimal in many circumstances anyway) and they can add a flatting range OOP into their play later on.

Yeah I completely disagree but that's cool ofc.

One of the biggest mistakes they do is getting jj/qq in so we would literally be folding way too much.  If you are going to suggest jus 4b/calling jj/qq as std then that will simply be -ev in too many spots.

This is without even taking into consideration personal development and lot being bashed up when you do decide to move up.

Yeh, you're probably right actually Patrick. First time you've ever easily convinced me of something lol!

In a CO/BTN dynamic it is perfectly reasonable to play 4bet or fold when starting out, since we can get JJ+ and AK in for clear value, and often TT and AQ in for (sometimes very) thin value. But you are right... when opening in EP you do need to have a flatting range vs 3bets OOP even at 50NL.

Obviously the one thing we both agree on though is that in the actual hand TT is a (close) fold.

Really great discussion in this thread, thanks for all the contributions!

I should be posting a fair few hands over the next couple of weeks, hopefully can explore more spots that at first seem 'standard' but are actually more complex.

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    56.026%     55.82%    00.20%         344110008      1253802.00   { JJ+, AQs+, A5s-A2s, AKo }
Hand 1:    43.974%     43.77%    00.20%         269811828      1253802.00   { TT }

Thats a 4.5% 3bet range, Which i would say is about average for a 50nl reg in these positions. With these ranges he also has a 70-30 value-bluffing 3bet range which is close to optimal (optimal being 60-40 iir).

Plus we are OOP and I have given him way more bluffs then I think is actually reasonable for most 50nl regs.

Then factor in if he only ever barrells turn/river as a bluff with As/Ks he will simply have too many value combos

If I give him every AQo combo with As/Qs aswell we will just about break even on a call.

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.579%     31.58%    00.00%                12            0.00   { TcTs }
Hand 1:    68.421%     68.42%    00.00%                26            0.00   { JJ+, AsKs, AsQs, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }

Another point to make, if we widen his 3bet range, it only leads to him having a bunch of AJ combos in there too, so things get considerably worse

So to summarise.

50nl not 3betting light pre often enough

Not barrelling off often enough and even if he does with the widest range possible imo we still are close to break even at best

Always remember, folding is 0ev.