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Poker Hand Analysis
Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
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Topic: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards (Read 5239 times)
Pugwashed
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 285
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #15 on:
December 19, 2012, 04:57:54 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 04:07:54 PM
Patrick/Tom
I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn
Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+
the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)
From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape
My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload
It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river. I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts
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outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #16 on:
December 19, 2012, 05:35:25 PM »
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 04:57:54 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 04:07:54 PM
Patrick/Tom
I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn
Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+
the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)
From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape
My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload
It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river.
I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough
to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts
statements like that are totally menaingless without information
If Im villain in this hand and I have Askx im 100% barrelling thru, because the hero is going to fold most of his pre flop peel range and I believe he would have raised the flop with a set. He cant have any nut flush draws and if he has a made flush god bless him
We also checked river - so what are we representing? What are we hoping villain checks back?
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Pugwashed
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 285
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #17 on:
December 19, 2012, 07:11:24 PM »
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 04:57:54 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 04:07:54 PM
Patrick/Tom
I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn
Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+
the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)
From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape
My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload
It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river.
I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough
to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts
statements like that are totally menaingless without information
If Im villain in this hand and I have Askx im 100% barrelling thru, because the hero is going to fold most of his pre flop peel range and I believe he would have raised the flop with a set. He cant have any nut flush draws and if he has a made flush god bless him
We also checked river - so what are we representing? What are we hoping villain checks back?
That statement was simply based on my experience of randoms at 50nl (where I've mostly been playing lately and have very good results).
We shouldn't really have a set on the flop (flatting the 3b with 22/55/66 doesn't seem great). It's hard to say exactly what flushes we should have here as we should have a very narrow range for flatting a largeish 3b oop but suited broadways and 88-QQ type hands are probably perceived to be in there a decent amount. So when we check the river we basically rep some flushes, some 1 pair hands and JJ. (This probably means that we shouldn't be calling turn too often with 1 pair assuming we are folding the river with it given we shouldn't have too many flushes as it would give him a pretty profitable river bluff but I don't think that matters against fish here and if we are gonna pick some 1 pair hands to do it with TsTx is one of the best we can use)
The fact that maybe villain should be bluffing with the As or that you are does in no way mean that he is. Randoms at 50nl don't tend to hand read well or understand their own ranges and are not thinking about how future streets should affect their decisions. A lot of them are probably pretty happy just to bluff the turn when it looks like a scary card and they have some equity but just give up when you call and they brick (it's hard to know exactly what goes through their heads). Again, my only basis for that is some experience playing 50nl and that without any information that feels best as a default.
As for "What are we hoping villain checks back?"; ideally something we beat
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outragous76
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 13315
Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #18 on:
December 19, 2012, 07:49:03 PM »
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 07:11:24 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 04:57:54 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 04:07:54 PM
Patrick/Tom
I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn
Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+
the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)
From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape
My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload
It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river.
I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough
to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts
statements like that are totally menaingless without information
If Im villain in this hand and I have Askx im 100% barrelling thru, because the hero is going to fold most of his pre flop peel range and I believe he would have raised the flop with a set. He cant have any nut flush draws and if he has a made flush god bless him
We also checked river - so what are we representing? What are we hoping villain checks back?
That statement was simply based on my experience of randoms at 50nl (where I've mostly been playing lately and have very good results).
We shouldn't really have a set on the flop (flatting the 3b with 22/55/66 doesn't seem great). It's hard to say exactly what flushes we should have here as we should have a very narrow range for flatting a largeish 3b oop but suited broadways and 88-QQ type hands are probably perceived to be in there a decent amount. So when we check the river we basically rep some flushes, some 1 pair hands and JJ. (This probably means that we shouldn't be calling turn too often with 1 pair assuming we are folding the river with it given we shouldn't have too many flushes as it would give him a pretty profitable river bluff but I don't think that matters against fish here and if we are gonna pick some 1 pair hands to do it with TsTx is one of the best we can use)
The fact that maybe villain should be bluffing with the As or that you are does in no way mean that he is.
Randoms at 50nl don't tend to hand read well or understand their own ranges and are not thinking about how future streets
should affect their decisions. A lot of them are probably pretty happy just to bluff the turn when it looks like a scary card and they have some equity but just give up when you call and they brick (it's hard to know exactly what goes through their heads). Again, my only basis for that is some experience playing 50nl and that without any information that feels best as a default.
As for "What are we hoping villain checks back?"; ideally something we beat
coulnt agree more - but it goes like this
Pre - woo hoo Ace King with a raise ahead
FLop - oh well gotta c-bet
turn - whoo - hoo he keeps checking and we got As
river - oh bugger - oh well we've come this far and hes checked - i mean what can he call with - Jam
Given your logic of playing 50nl and the statements you make, its a trivial turn fold on that board - becasue you are just hoping his top of range holdings dont contain a spade!
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muckthenuts
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1672
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #19 on:
December 20, 2012, 12:08:23 AM »
His value range seems like its poss quite thin at first glance, but without any read on his ability and no blockers to anything probably just fold river. Don't think calling is really terrible though and hand seems fine up to that point.
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Bully87
Just a 50NL Fish
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 385
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #20 on:
December 20, 2012, 01:42:36 AM »
Folding river, most people aren't 3b pre then barrelling air. Probably too generalistic but I'm a
nit
.
Probably fold turn if possible. Just smacks of value town to me.
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Pugwashed
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 285
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #21 on:
December 20, 2012, 07:27:24 AM »
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 07:49:03 PM
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 07:11:24 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 05:35:25 PM
Quote from: Pugwashed on December 19, 2012, 04:57:54 PM
Quote from: outragous76 on December 19, 2012, 04:07:54 PM
Patrick/Tom
I am not advocatinig getting it in btw - i personally fold turn
Pads - I do obv consider his whole range - but it appears unspoken in the thread that we are assuming his value range is the top of his range ie QQ+
the point I am making is he can easily choose to barrel with As as he already has the lead, he has a tonne of equity and is never getting it in bad (esp if he thinks we raise flop with sets)
From our point of view with TT - even if he has his semi bluffing range - we are never in fantastic shape
My point is - if we do call turn, we might as well let him bluff off the river and if he has QQ+ then we reload
It's possible you're right that we can call river once we get there but folding turn is better than call/call. I don't think it is but I could be wrong. The problem is for that to be right you're making the assumption that when he bluffs the turn he very frequently bluffs river.
I just don't think randoms at 50nl do this often enough
to make us that concerned about call turn, fold river being a huge mistake. Also looking at our range, if we are gonna call turn, fold river with any part of our range that gets to the turn then TsTx is pretty much the nut hand to be doing that with and there are plenty of ways we can still win the hand with TT here even if we plan on folding river (see Alex's post above) and we can have flushes and sets which protects the weaker parts of our range. As for him barreling of his AsX hands here, how many AsX hands do you expect him to have? He's more likely to use suited aces as 3bet bluffs than random offsuit aces so lots of his As hands are already the nuts
statements like that are totally menaingless without information
If Im villain in this hand and I have Askx im 100% barrelling thru, because the hero is going to fold most of his pre flop peel range and I believe he would have raised the flop with a set. He cant have any nut flush draws and if he has a made flush god bless him
We also checked river - so what are we representing? What are we hoping villain checks back?
That statement was simply based on my experience of randoms at 50nl (where I've mostly been playing lately and have very good results).
We shouldn't really have a set on the flop (flatting the 3b with 22/55/66 doesn't seem great). It's hard to say exactly what flushes we should have here as we should have a very narrow range for flatting a largeish 3b oop but suited broadways and 88-QQ type hands are probably perceived to be in there a decent amount. So when we check the river we basically rep some flushes, some 1 pair hands and JJ. (This probably means that we shouldn't be calling turn too often with 1 pair assuming we are folding the river with it given we shouldn't have too many flushes as it would give him a pretty profitable river bluff but I don't think that matters against fish here and if we are gonna pick some 1 pair hands to do it with TsTx is one of the best we can use)
The fact that maybe villain should be bluffing with the As or that you are does in no way mean that he is.
Randoms at 50nl don't tend to hand read well or understand their own ranges and are not thinking about how future streets
should affect their decisions. A lot of them are probably pretty happy just to bluff the turn when it looks like a scary card and they have some equity but just give up when you call and they brick (it's hard to know exactly what goes through their heads). Again, my only basis for that is some experience playing 50nl and that without any information that feels best as a default.
As for "What are we hoping villain checks back?"; ideally something we beat
coulnt agree more - but it goes like this
Pre - woo hoo Ace King with a raise ahead
FLop - oh well gotta c-bet
turn - whoo - hoo he keeps checking and we got As
river - oh bugger - oh well we've come this far and hes checked - i mean what can he call with - Jam
Given your logic of playing 50nl and the statements you make, its a trivial turn fold on that board - becasue you are just hoping his top of range holdings dont contain a spade!
Essentially all this comes down to is a different impression we have of the level on which an average random at 50nl is thinking on. Neither of us really has any information to back this up, just making best guesses based on experience.
I'm not sure what leads from what I've said to making this a trivial turn fold. In fact I'm pretty sure if you we're trying to come up with a line based on my reads / best guesses you would come to the opposite conclusion (that its a pretty trivial turn call as I expect him to bluff the turn fairly frequently but the river infrequently). It's probably close given that a lot of his bluffs have decent equity vs us but I still think calling turn is probably a bit better than folding (but it's possible I'm wrong). I haven't done any maths / calculations to back this up or anything (and can't as I don't have access to my computer right now), I'm just doing some informed guessing.
Feel free to do some calculations and try to find the ranges that a turn call becomes break even against because otherwise this could just go round in circles forever and I'm not gonna say any more on it.
«
Last Edit: December 20, 2012, 09:00:54 AM by Pugwashed
»
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Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #22 on:
December 20, 2012, 06:45:20 PM »
You're not making a big mistake to simply fold preflop vs an unknown.
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rfgqqabc
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 5371
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #23 on:
December 21, 2012, 01:37:08 PM »
Quote from: Honeybadger on December 20, 2012, 06:45:20 PM
You're not making a big mistake to simply fold preflop vs an unknown.
Do you mean fold > call or its close to breakeven? Cool thread
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #24 on:
December 21, 2012, 02:01:47 PM »
I mean that there is not much in it either way. But probably folding is slightly better than calling. If we had opened UTG then folding is clearly correct without history/reads.
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pleno1
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 18912
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #25 on:
December 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM »
fold pre flop is standard here
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Quote from: TightEnd on December 16, 2013, 12:59:59 AM
Worst playcalling I have ever seen. Bunch of fucking jokers . Run the bloody ball. 18 rushes all game? You have to be kidding me. Fuck off lol
Deadman
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 194
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #26 on:
December 21, 2012, 06:40:52 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on December 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM
fold pre flop is standard here
Don't play 6 max cash online but really fold pre?
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Honeybadger
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1920
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #27 on:
December 21, 2012, 06:53:58 PM »
Quote from: Deadman on December 21, 2012, 06:40:52 PM
Quote from: pleno1 on December 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM
fold pre flop is standard here
Don't play 6 max cash online but really fold pre?
Yep, although it is fairly close so if you have
any
read at all you may have enough justification to deviate (e.g. if you have a read that villain is one and done with his cbets in 3bet pots and so will let you get to SD). But as a standard it is a fold. If you had opened UTG and been 3bet by MP then it is a completely trivial fold readless.
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rfgqqabc
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 5371
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #28 on:
December 21, 2012, 07:21:19 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on December 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM
fold pre flop is standard here
Is it really standard? Like, if i could poll every single 100nl reg on stars would they agree with standard? I understand what your saying about ev of decision etc, but saying standard isn't the same.
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[21:05:17] Andrew W: you wasted a non spelling mistakepost?
[21:11:08] Patrick Leonard: oll
TL900
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2418
Re: Ghey Spot - one for the 6max wizards
«
Reply #29 on:
December 21, 2012, 07:38:40 PM »
Quote from: pleno1 on December 21, 2012, 02:13:14 PM
fold pre flop is standard here
do you have a peeling range here?
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@MtSpewmore
Quote from: jgcblack
I wouldn't normally try so hard, but didn't have another opportunity I could wait for. I wasn't ready to surrender what I WANTED SO MUCH, that easily, I couldn't guarantee a call with me staying stoic and relying on a flinch "top pair" calling reflex.
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