blonde poker forum

Its that time again

Pre-season training and markets are released

I would like your tips please, before the start of the season

- Division Winners
- Division top scorers
- Club top scorers
- Handicaps..teams to side with, teams to avoid

with an eye on value at prices (not just "I think United will win the Premiership")

I know we have a lot of posters who dabble here and who have made good money on these longer term markets

Charlie Austin is one I recall, Loic Remy another


Please post them...

thanks

I think Brentford e/w at 14s to win League 1 with Coral is a good bet. Finished third last year and have retained entire squad aside from third choice goalie, one loan player who has gone to Birmingham City and a couple of other loan players that were cover for thr first team. They have already signed Alan McCormack who captained another top six team - Swindon - last year;  loaned highly touted Chelsea midfielder George Saville and are to announce the signing of Will Grigg who scored 20+ goals for Walsall this year.

The owner has come out and said that he wants the club in the Championship for the time the new stadium is ready (2015/2016) and he is willing to put up the budget to make it happen. At the price, I can't see anything but a great run for your money.

Had one bet, but it's very large.

Wolves at 9/2 to win L1.

I have one bet on so far, and probably won't have many more.  Ladbrokes opened with Bradford City for promotion from league 1 at 12/1.  Think they took one bet before cutting it.

waiting until 4 games in were i expect Wolves to drift to around 6-1 maybe even 7-1 after a slow start

then i will be having a decent bet

one of best managers in division simple

blackpool to be relegated is decent atm. odds aren't great but fancy milwall to go too, lomas won't have a clue, and no sponsorship money this year too and very low attendances so will struggle under ffp.

anyone know when top g/s odds for each division are out?

Well that's interesting. Wolves, Brentford and Bradford all for League 1. And I was thinking of having a punt on Sheff Utd!
And pretty interesting you say that Horsie about Wolves having a slow start. I was thinking exactly the same thing what with ins and out.

I'm pretty sweet on Arsenal @ 12/1 e/w for the Prem.

keep em coming please

especially goalscorer stuff for teams and divisions when you see them


I have one Barnet e/w for the Conference 16/1

New ground, great new facilities that are likely to attract players and close to London a good catchment area to get cast offs from local bigger clubs that didn't especially fancy underhill

(https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/p480x480/935402_589522217738587_1812411737_n.jpg)

Were a touch unlucky to go down in that melee at the bottom of div 2 last year, retained most of the squad and budget to try and get straight back

Have mentioned it on other threads, but Watford are going to announce all their signings in one go.  It might be today, or early next week.

When that happens, the 14-1 might look very big........

Reading 11-1, same price as Bolton and Leicester.

Either Reading are underrated or the other two over.

Lots of people fancy Bolton - can't see it myself.  Workmanlike effort into the playoffs imo.

Leicester definitely overrated, going to be a tough adjustment to FFP

If Reading keep this squad, fancy them quite a lot at 11-1

Agree - seems a fine price.  Much rather them than QPR at half those odds.

Still got parachute payments from the Prem in L1 that's a ginormous edge imo

Still got some premier contracts in L1 as well though Keith which isn't a happy equation!

Feel like they REALLY need to come back up this year.  Solid managerial appointment though.

Another point to note is the parachute payments don't count towards FFP.

So for QPR, Wigan, Reading this is a big advantage compared to the championship sides who failed to get up while overspending (leicester and a few others)

We know QPR could go any way this year,likely to be a lot of upheaval..but its another reason why I like Reading (having been through the managerial change) and potentially Wigan (a bit behind Reading in that process of change)

Just regarding FFP - what happens if you ignore the rules?

Also - regarding trading between clubs with common owners, if Udinese "gift" Almen Abdi to Watford like they did with Forestieri, I assume the Football League will come up with a notional transfer fee to ensure Watford play by the rules.  That could be interesting - I remember the old days of tribunals before Bosman, and remember the players were nearly always undervalued.

You'd need to pay £4/£5 million to get Abdi, but I bet the FL bods deem his value at £1,352,850 or some nonsense.  Which is good for us of course!

Transfer embargoes, fines etc

Basically a team is left with the squad it has until such time as it reduces the wage bill to x% of turnover, via player sales, expiries of contracts etc etc

the other way to do it is to get turnover up, commerical income, sposnorship or loans converted into shares etc to get debt down

I look forward to reading Martin Samuel and his re hash of last seasons column within the month :)

At least Holloway won't be in this division to go mental!

Martin Samuels' chip buttie will drop from his hands in shock when he sees the squad announcement next week I fear. :)

i suspect he will think "italian reserves" have no place in the quality that is the championship

No transfer embargos until jan 2015 and relegated clubs have one year exemption.

So will be a few teams risking it.

We will be fooked if we have to pay gus off in full, but could sell bridcutt for £5m or Buckley (turned down £5m from Swansea in jan) so we should be fine.

Watford can rip the division up if the other teams like udinese cover their wages!

One bet I would easily suggest is LAY Chester at any odds to win the BSP.

Not a chance - staying part time and just sold their best player to Fleetwood. Only about 5-6 of the squad that won last year's title are still there and the club are finding out that being part time and community owned is not helping attract Conference Premier players as they cant afford to pay wages that Luton/Forest Green etc can.

Yet, however, the bookies have Chester at 14/1 best price to win the league - Barnet are 16/1 best price!

There are quite a few I like, but for the reasons already mentioned you have to like Wigan at 12's to be promoted.

Although my personal favourite at a half decent price is Bournemouth to be relegated @ 12's.

They have got promoted from a very poor League One last season & although Eddie Howe has done a good job there it is questionable whether or not he will do as well in the Championship where he previously failed with Burnley. The FFP does not help them either, especially being a small club, so how the market prices them up at 12's to be relegated is beyond me, perhaps the bookies are expecting them to significantly improve, but I can't see how they can do that much with the FFP n play these days.

Their current squad is not going to keep them up, improvements won't either, they need significant improvement and whether as a club they can do that is questionable, I am all over 12's.

I was going to post it in TfT, but doesn't seem ideal at the moment.

why?


Do Bournemouth spend way beyond their means, such that FFP is a problem?

We know  some of the larger clubs in the division do, but as long as Bournemouth spend within their turnover, they are ok with FFP aren't they?

Bournemouth are the same price as Leeds to go up....16/1.

Funny how people see this league.

The 12's is suggesting that Bournemouth will be comfortable mid table, they need significant investment & I can't see how they would me able to spend £xm+ with the FFP around.

League One was incredibly poor last season

does look odd

McDermott should have Leeds top six this season?

Agree about League One, from what I saw

Off to check Bournemouth ownership/funding etc. lol sigh.

Zero funds it seems. I would take mid table.

Think you are confusing promotion and outright odds Aaron...Wigan 12s best to win

I like Reading @10s EW  or 7-2 to be promoted 

Good Manager, well run club, retained most of their premier squad from last year (Robson Kanu Great Player)   Russian owners with some money plus premier league parachute payment

As much as I appreciate how difficult the championship is Im pretty sure they will be close come next year

Yeah Fraser, I meant to win outright!

Both could be said for Reading and Wigan with regards to well run club to be fair, prob looking at Wigan personally because price is bigger

True..but feel some of Wigans squad will get snapped up by the big boys , no doubt Martinez at Everton will be in for a few especially Mcmanaman

Wigan will be hurt massively by trying to compete in Europa League in my opinion.  You just can't blend that with a 46 game league campaign.  They might make playoffs, but can't see them winning the league.

Photos are starting to be leaked from Watford's Italian training camp although the only official announcement is that Acuna has signed, as well as some whizz kid from Reading who I presume is not ready for 1st team yet.

Abdi is in the photos, as it Casetti and Pudil so I assume it is safe to assume they are playing for us next year.  Haven't glimpsed anything of Vydra yet, or Ekstrand or Battochio.

Completely disagree about Bournemouth.

Got a very good squad. Took steve cook from us who is fking awesome.

Very wealthy backer too, and fpp has no punishment for this season.

They haven't got a very good squad.

Their current team as it stands is not going to stay up.

Although Reading are my first choice & tick all the boxes I quite like Watford too

Dung am I right in thinking the FA were going to shut Watfords  " Italian transfer loophole" down ?  If so when does this take affect ?  Plus what does the squad look like in your opinion for next year ?

5 -1 to be promoted looks fair

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion


Cheers

I backed Sunderland to be relegated at 6-1, 11-2 best now but i'd have taken 4's.

Di Canio really does seem like he is trying to rip everything up and start afresh, gl with that mate, especially with all the free transfers.

Sold one of the best keepers in the league, their best defender last year was a loan and they just have a general feeling of a club in a mess.

6's seemed juicy.

Im sure you are trolling.

Far better team than sheff wed anyway.

As a Walsall fan I advise you don't bet on them to go up or down this season!! 

They've lost a couple of the key players from last season but kept their best player (and captain) so the spine of the team should stay reasonably solid.  Presuming they sort a decent permanent keeper, a replacement striker and a few other reasonable players before the season starts, then a mid-lower finish looks likely. 

Great manager and good team spirit but probably the smallest budget in the entire division - 16/1 for promotion doesn't represent any value at all and whilst 4/1 for relegation is better than I was expecting, I would want 5/1 or better before considering taking it

Simeon Jackson might be going to Bournemouth as per their forum, would be a incred signing.

Hi Fraser - Udinese link is not shut down, just means we can't loan more than 4 players from them.  The players were only on loan in any case last year because the takeover was so late in the summer that there wasn't time to do anything else so it has very little impact.

So far this summer we have secured a fair number of the guys we had last year on perms (although it's not offical yet).  Not Vydra yet though, but I am told Abdi, Pudil, Casetti and Anya are very likely, and possibly Battochio and Ekstrand as well.

We have also added so far:

Acuna (Paraguayan striker with good scoring record in L2 in Spain)
Fabbrini (Support striker capped by Italy)
Angella (Italian beast of a centre back)
Faraoni (Italian U21 wing back who started for Inter's first team 14 times in 2012)

There are more to come.  I'm confident that by the start of the season Watford and Reading will have the strongest squads.  We still need a Keeper and a replacement for Chalobah.

Surprised the 14-1 is still there for Watford to win league, given that news is starting to be finalised

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/watfordfc/watfordfcnews/10519533.Udinese_trio_to_move_to_Watford__says_Pozzo/?ref=rss

That 5/1 to get promoted with BetVictor has got to be better value though? 

yes - think the 5-1 to go up is a cracking bet.

I think that, and Reading, are two bets for TfT really Mr Dung, Mr Doobs

Yep - think so.  I'll do a write up for TfT this afternoon when I've got more time.

I think the bet is worthy of TfT too.  I have taken both the 14s and 5s, but would have just taken the 5s if I saw it first. 

Sorry Doob - hope I didn't misled you - I just use the outright price to check price movements.

You didn't mislead me, both prices look good, thanks for the info.

Watford have also just signed Lewis McGugan from Forest

http://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/10521128.Watford_set_to_sign_McGugan/

Southampton to be relegated from the Premier League next season

They fit the profile for a team to go back down and @ 10-1 with sporting odds Im sure we will get a decent sweat

How much youre allowed on is another thing as they are stand out price

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

10/1 looks decent alright, I might have them in the 7/1 bracket with Swansea + West Brom. There is not a lot between the 10 teams or so in the bottom half but I think I might wait until transfers in/out are concluded so we can get a better guage of where teams are at. At the moment I might personally prefer West Brom @ 8/1.

+1 to the Southampton bet, going to throw a small amount on myself

At what price would you consider to be backing Yeovil for the drop though..? They have gone from 4/5 to EVS lately and they do seem to be the odd one out on the league. They also have the FFP to think about too

Im not really that up on the Yeovil squad but I do know that in the championship historically everybody can beat everybody on their day.

On that basis theres no way I would want to take evens about any team  in a league thats so competitive as quite often there can be big price teams both promoted and relegated.  Last year for example Wolves were at least 25 -1 to be relegated so I would be looking for some value maybe with a club in a change or turmoil etc.

Quite like your fancy of Bournemouth  @ 12s 
Erratic Ipswich @ 16s
and maybe a little touch on managerless Brighton @ 25s

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

Looking at the Premier League, as it stands, I think you can look no further than Crystal Palace to maintain that Europa League spot.

Manager less Brighton? We appointed someone a week ago. Head coach and all his flair back room staff with 15 years experience at Valencia.

Keep up.

Signed Upson now who turned us into the best defence in the league.

Why are Bournemouth 12-1 to go down?  Don't get why they are so big when Donnie are around evens?  They seemed fairly level matched last year?

I didn't realise they had appointed a new management team but then again its quite difficult to keep up with every team plus all the other sports.

What I try to do is to look at things from a betting perspective than with an emotional attachment like you do with the club you support .

There sometimes comes a point when its worth betting something purely on the price or the value it represents .

There are a lot of examples where new faces come in they can take a lot of time to settle and in the meantime results get seriously affected sometimes with bad consequences . For example the new manager  and team may not settle and like the Brighton way of life etc .

The secret to getting value and decent odds winners is by second guessing or working out these potential situations  ,getting your bets on and beating the book

Have Yeovil got a chance to be relegated at Evens ? of course they have ! but Id be much rather be seeking bigger odds and backing Bournemouth or Brighton @12s and 25s respectively  as they tick more of the value boxes.

No doubt other people will have their idea of relegation candidates but Im positive there will be nobody rushing to back a team at Evens to be relegated from what is a very competitive league

I'm not backing Yeovil to go down at Eva, but if price does bet quite bigger then I may have too.

Championship is a league where anyone can beat anyone, but Yeovil must be by some distance the smallest club to come up here. I don't see how they could possibly even spend £250k on a player, Johnson still brought up a very average team up last season from league one, it needs a total overhaul.

Might be tempted at 6/4 or bigger.

In Southampton news they've just signed that Celtic guy, actual good signing, fantastic signing really

Coventry in absolute turmoil, 6's to get relegated?!

If Gary Hooper completes his move to QPR surely he'd be a decent bet for championship top scorer.

Any thoughts on and any idea what price?

I think he'd be favourite.  Well established striker for the market leaders and likely to start most games.

Think it depends on your view of how strong QPR will be.  I think they are over-rated myself, but some people really fancy them.

I'm shocked a premiership club haven't pushed the boat out for him.

I think he is a premiership class striker.

I'd be surpirsed if he signs tbh.

Surely he'd have joined by now if he was going to, he's hoping a Premier League team will come in for him.

Bradford have made some really good signings and we have kept our team together we are 4/6 to finish in the top half I have backed us to go up top 6 so think this is easy money bet

Looks like Hooper is going to Norwich.

Norwich putting together a useful looking squad.  Hooper and the Wolf up front as good as anyone outside the top 4 I think.

I am considering pushing against the tide with Norwich

Which is weird when i consider both Wolfy and Hooper to be excellent signings

However much of there success (if you call it that) last season was on being very organised not pushing players forward and hoping to nick a goal.

The signings look to me like a whole change of style of play which will expose the back 4 a lot more.

I've drawn your lot in the sweepstake, so thought it would be rude not to grab some 12s and hopefully have it right off!

There might be a possible bet at Boyles - Premier League most assists.

Last season Mata was top with 12 - he is 11/1.

Cazorla was second with 11 but he is 20/1. Each way terms are 1/4 of the odds top 4.

Reckon it's got to be worth putting a bit on Santi e/w. What do you think?

Where are you getting those figures from?
Mata 18
Hazard 16
RVP 15
Walcott/Cazorla 13
is what I see from the FPL fantasy football site. They are just premiership assists, not including cups/Europe.
I think it's a reasonable bet as he should be better in his 2nd year and there is a few at shorter prices (or around his price) that shouldn't be.

I was looking here http://www.eplindex.com/32206/creative-players-201213-premier-league-chances-assists-clearcut-chances.html

I suppose different sites measure an assist differently?

Yeah, I'm after just searching through a whole load of sites and every one seems to be different.
I think it's a good bet as I certainly think he'll be there or thereabouts and there is no way he's a 20/1 shot. There is probably only about 10 players that could win that and he'd be at the upper end.
But if you are placing it, you might just want to ask them what stats they are calculating it from otherwise you won't know where you stand until they decide to pay you, or not pay you!

Reports an hour ago linking Carzola with a move to Athletico.....sigh.....

Santi Cazorla has denied he is set to return to Spain and insisted he is "very happy" at current club Arsenal.

Reports have linked the Gunners star with a move to Atletico Madrid, after the Spanish side were believed to be preparing a bid.

Atletico coach Diego Simeone has not denied that his side were interested in Cazorla, commenting last week that "anything is possible" when asked about the midfielder.

But the 28-year-old midfielder, who is set to join up with Arsene Wenger's squad this week, has stressed he is not about to leave London for Madrid.

He told reporters: "There has been a lot of speculation about a move to Atletico Madrid but I'm very happy at Arsenal, I have a contract there and I start training on Monday.

"Perhaps I will return to Spain one day, but right now it's very unlikely," he added.

Cazorla signed for Arsenal from cash-strapped Malaga last summer in a £15million deal and immediately made himself at home, becoming one of the Gunners top performers.



Check out all the latest News, Sport & Celeb gossip at Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/arsenals-santi-cazorla-rubbishes-reports-2095088#ixzz2aFRuI8H4
Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook

lol ridiculous story, it says Simeone hasn´t said anything about Cazorla and Cazorla has clearly stated he is happy at Arsenal. Looks like the move is a formality based on that rock solid evidence.

I never said I put any stock in it...its in the mirror ffs...lol

To me the sigh indicated you were resigned to losing Cazorla. I didn´t realise the sigh was resignation at the lack of improvement in the standard of journalism following the Leveson enquiry. Having recognised the misunderstanding, I share your sigh.

Lol, very good. It was more a sigh that its a sell tale, rather than a buy tale.

Boyles have confirmed that they use stats supplied from the Press Association for their markets.

Apologies, this is going to be quite long and full of stats.

When I first saw your proposed bet I thought it sounded great but the more I look in depth at it, the more I understand why they are pricing it as they do.
I'm not saying the bet is bad, just that it's an interesting market and it's a lot tighter than a top goalscorer market.
If you take these stats as being about right,

http://www.myfootballfacts.com/Premier_League_Combined_2012-13.html

the leaders are Mata + Hazard both with 13 each but there are 9 players very closely bunched with at least 9 assists.

Chelsea have 2, Mata and Hazard with 13 each.
Arsenal have 3, Cazorla (12), Walcott (11) and Podolski (10).
United have 2, RVP (10) and Rooney (11).
Liverpool have 1, Gerrard (9) but Coutinho got 5 in less than half a season, signing in January.
City only have 1, Silva (9) but Tevez got 8. City scored a comparitively low team total of goals though, which is sure to rise.
After that we have some interesting ones, Shaun Maloney and Jean Beausejour of relegated Wigan both got 8. Duff and Ruiz of Fulham both got 7.

So anyway it seems that teams tend to share out their assists quite evenly among their top 2 or 3 assisters.
So what we ideally need for this bet is a team that is going to score a shed load of goals and that hopefully doesn't have too many guys assisting. We want a guy that hogs all the set pieces as well as being a great final third passer.
Last year team goal totals
United 86
Chelsea 75
Arsenal 72
Pool 71
City 66
Spurs 66

Spurs are up there with the top team goal totals but their assisters are too spread with Bale/Lennon (7), Dempsey (6), Defoe/Sigurðsson (5).
So I think our winner is going to come from the top 5 teams but which team is going to increase their goals total? Well this is why I think I'd rather wait until the transfer merry go around finishes but I think Chelsea may finish around the same (75).

Chelsea scored 72, 72 and 64 in Mourinhos 1st spell at the club. I think we can expect something of the same, possibly slightly higher. They have a potential of a Spurs type spread this year as well with Mata/Hazard/Oscar/Schurrle/De Bruyne/Lukaku and others all possibly sharing the assist load more.

City I think will certainly score more than 66 this year. And Navas is an interesting one for sure. His club record of 388 games, 34 goals and 77 assists is good but not incredible (albeit he'll be in a more competitive, goalscoring side) and his chronic homesickness is likely to be sorely tested during a year in Manchester. I think they may suffer from too many assisters but Silva would be the major danger to my mind.

If Pool lose Suarez then their goal total will surely fall and Gerrard had a good assist total last year but he played virtually every league minute and that's unlikely to re-occur. Coutinho is an interesting one though, I see him as Pools main assister this year.

United is an interesting one. Last years 86 goals is hard to better so I don't see more goals. Their transfer business is possibly going to be key.
If they sign Fabregas, he's an assist monster and he would shake up the whole market. I don't think it's likely but who knows? Kagawa is priced the same as Cazorla which is strange as he only got 3 last year. If they sign Baines, he may hurt RVP by taking some set pieces away.

Arsenal were the only club with 3 players in double figures for assists last year. That's not ideal.
On the plus side for Cazorla, he's likely to be better in his 2nd year at the club. I think I read somewhere that he made more passes in the final third than any player in Europe last year and this is a key stat. And this for a team that struggled into 4th.
If Arsenal sign Suarez, I think it's an ideal transfer for Cazorla. He's a greedy goalscorer who doesn't assist much and this is what we want. More goals for the club but less sharing.   

Cliff notes: I like the bet but I'd like to wait. If Arsenal sign Suarez, I love the bet.
Also on a sidenote, I like Arsenal @ 11/1 e/w for the league. Similarly if they sign Suarez, I love that bet (I'm on @ 12/1).

Great write up, thanks!

I’m usually loathe to bet on or tip my own team, but the handicap market for League Two appears to be underestimating us, or overestimating how far ahead other teams will be, or both.

SkyBet have Wimbledon +26 at 20/1.

WillHill have us +27 at 18/1.

Both e/w terms are ¼ odds for top 4.

Last season we were awful and only just survived. However, after replacing Terry Brown with Neal Ardley, our second half of the season saw us with near play-off form.

We finished on 53 points, 30 behind the champions and 23 behind 4th place.

Both have Burton +16. We finished 17 points behind them last season.

I’m not being stupidly optimistic about our chances this season but I think we’ll definitely be higher than last year. We have a good young manager who is implementing professional change at the club, which has been too non-league in the league so far. We have brought in experienced players as well as some exciting younger ones.

I think it will be tight with the handicaps given but I think they are too big. What do you reckon?

Posted this earlier, but Coventry are 4's to be relegated? How is this? They are set to be deducted upto 30 points too?

The 30 points wouldn't be included in the bet obv

Tremendous piece of analysis by Bazza there. No wonder he is a winning punter.

Are you sure? If they're relegated the bet's a winner, whatever the points deduction.

I am confused now, they do not have a points deduction at present, but it will happen as soon as things are sorted, whether or not it's 10,15 or 20 is anyones guess.

Not saying you are wrong but where are the sources for further points deductions

they were deducted 10 points in 2012-13 for going into administration

Is it certain they face more?

links and proof please

There is potential for a massive price in the Premier League worst discipline market

Now i just need the compilers to a, offer the market (other than vc) and b, add said player in and c, make him a big price!

Coventry City liquidated this morning

Sad day, feel for their fans

From what I hear they are currently in admin and as soon as they come out they will face a deduction & this is from what their fans say. I think it's a similar case to Pomey last season where as soon as everything has cleared that is when the deductions will hit, but I do not know how many points it will be, some have said 30, but I can't see it personally, think it will be 10. But what is more interesting is that they are down to the bare bones squad wise, apparently numerous youth players in the squad regular and where is the money coming from throughout the season when they have only sold 210 season at Sixfields?

isher has said no chance SISU will agree to the ammendments ACL want for them to sign the CVA tomorrow.

Won't be good news for the fans tomorrow, except the club coming out of admin without an agreed CVA which will incur anything from 15 to 30 point deduction. - from a coventry fan

PS - Apparently been bad news on Coventry as I type this....

PPS - I am no good wit geography, especially Midlands stuff, but was there better options for Coventry rather than Northampton? Birmingham, Leicester, Wolves, Nottingham?

Northampton is 30 miles away

While Leicester and Birmingham are closer, you've got to get the right deal with the home club for rent of stadium etc

Northampton want them, much cheaper

anyway, looks like it its moot now

Cov now 2/1 best for relegation.

Yep

the chatter is the FL can transfer the share to a new co, deduct them 15 points and rubber stamp the move to Northampton (but I am not sure we really know yet)

so 4/1 was clearly on the right lines

The whole move to Northampton can not work, I just don't understand it & feel so sorry for their fans

Coventry forum is still talking as if this is just a points penalty, but surely liquidation is shut down and cease trading?  i.e. they won't be turning up for tomorrow's fixture or any others?

Dare I say it, I still think 2's is a price considering what is going on.

Administrator Paul Appleton is finally expecting an outcome today to the four-month administration of Coventry City Ltd. Will ACL sign CVA agreement for club to exit administration? If not, liquidation could mean 15-point league penalty with season starting tomorrow.

If the Club cannot fulfix it's fixtures & is in liquidation, it will not be relegated, it will just disappear. Different thing entirely, imo.

Yes absolutely.  Will just mean void but one less team to be relegated?

Nope, they can still exsist as a football team.

Correct. It would NOT be Relegation.

Seems it is the parent company liquidated, but the company holding all the players contracts still exists.  So maybe they can continue with a 30 point penalty or something like that.

They should be out of business in the sense of the word really, but it seems they will continue with a points deduction which was going to be -15, but at this point in time looks like it could be -30

Only 25 years since this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_FA_Cup_Final

Pretty sad really.

What must the chap below be thinking today?


(http://i1147.photobucket.com/albums/o541/tikay2/NEW%20ALBUM/JH11_zps02668132.jpg) (http://s1147.photobucket.com/user/tikay2/media/NEW%20ALBUM/JH11_zps02668132.jpg.html)


If there were such a thing as a Fooball Hall of Fame, he'd be in it. He has pioneered so many things in football, & I doubt 5% of football fans realise that.

He was actually involved in this incident (below), in a way, too.

Name the incident, the course, & the winning, horse, jockey & trainer of the race?



(http://i1147.photobucket.com/albums/o541/tikay2/NEW%20ALBUM/SLS_zps8b696ad4.jpg) (http://s1147.photobucket.com/user/tikay2/media/NEW%20ALBUM/SLS_zps8b696ad4.jpg.html)

Absolutely no idea.

Looks like Greville Starkey on board?

That may well be Greville, but I don't know for sure.

A clue to the incident is this man, who rode the winner that day. He has a very famous son.

Anyway, we better stop the derail, or the football lads will get cross.

(http://i1147.photobucket.com/albums/o541/tikay2/NEW%20ALBUM/WW1_zpsbcc175e7.jpg) (http://s1147.photobucket.com/user/tikay2/media/NEW%20ALBUM/WW1_zpsbcc175e7.jpg.html)

Does that mean Walsall could still get promoted/relegated for last year?

GO AWAY, you are BANNED from the Betting Boards.

If there's a single entity involved in the this then liquidation would signal the end of the club's existence.  It's effectively the point at which all activity ceases and the remaining assets are sold off for whatever can be raised (it's a final process at the end of a receivership, or sometime an administration, to ultimately wipe the entity from the records.

The background to this looks to be that the proposed CVA, which would have been an agreed exit route from administration, failed to get the required votes, so this is now the last option available to the administrator (who can't continue to keep the company in administration indefinitely, as it's a court-appointed process and is only granted if there's a foreseeable alternative to liquidation which would give a better return for creditors).

For fans of the team, it's a much scarier term to see used than administration.  If, as someone has suggested, it's a holding company that's being liquidated, then it might not be so fatal a blow.  Certainly the info I've read so far doesn't indicate that they won't be fulfilling fixtures from tomorrow which is what I'd expect from reading about their liquidation.

Nope, still no clue.

I've backed

Championship -Wigan
League one -wolves
League two-fleetwood
Conference - Luton (to finally do it for me)

Think Wigan and wolves are especially well priced think could has made some food signings with holt and others and they have kept hold of most of there players like mcmanaman,McCarthy and Maloney

Some great value in goalscorer markets

Jelavic at 150/1 e/w
James constable at Oxford at 33/1
Lee Hughes at port vale 33/1

Can't have Wolves at the price at all. No fav has won League 1 for 18 years. In that time Leeds, Norwich, Southampton, Man City, Sheffield Utd, Nottingham Forest etc have all been in the league and all not won it. They may well win it but at less than 5s I wouldn't want to be backing them.

In the 70's did the stable boys strike and then storm the course at Newmarket?
Is it that?

No idea why, or why Jimmy Hill or Frankie's dad were involved.

Good old Lester . . . .  Charge!

 http://observer.theguardian.com/osm/story/0,,482474,00.html

You will have to explain the Jimmy Hill link though.

Winner.

It was the stable lads strike in 1975, which disrupted the start of the 2,000 Guineas, eventually won by Bolkonski, at 33/1, from Grundy.

He was owned by Carlo d'Alessio. Carlo originally had the horse trained in Italy by Sergio Cumani. Sergio's son was Luca Cumani, who was, at the time, Assistant Trainer to a then young Henry Cecil. So the horse came across to be trained by Henry.

The jockey up top was Gianfranco Dettori, father of Frankie, who was just 5 or 6 at the time. You can see from the photo, Frankie is the perfect spit of his Dad.

Tom Dickie, Cecil's Head Lad, forsook his bonus for Bolkonski winning as he never returned to work for him, the bad blood was very bitter.

The Stable Lads were dreadfully underpaid, & badly organised, so Jimmy Hill got involved, organised their Union, and remains, to this day, a Trustee of the Stable Lads Association.

Jimmy hill is also credited with the original notion of all seater football stadia in the UK, and for pestering the football authorities to introduce three points for a win. Famously, of course, he was responsible for the Maximum Wage in football being lifted. Shortly after, Johnny Haynes (Fulham) was the first £100 per week footballer.

PS - yup, I have too much time on my hands. I also happen to be reading the Henry Cecil Bio at present.

If you backed Cov City to be relegated and they "disappear" instead do your bets get voided or settled as losers?

Still unsure if that is Greville Starkey.

At around that time he was the Cecil stable jockey, but Cecil sacked him and Starkey took the gig with Guy Harwood, which was very successful for all parties.

Cecil,  meanwhile, started using Piggott, before signing Joe Mercer, who had been replaced by Willie Carson as the stable jockey at West Ilsey for Major Hern.

I will stop now. Promise.

You should start a diary....oh wait :)

Compared to Wolves best price of 4/9 for a Top 6 finish, the odds on Peterborugh (Evs) and Bristol City (11/8) look big to me.

The only issue for me is whether it's worth tying up funds for a full season on prices that short, but I like the bets in principle.

Also like the 5/1 on Port Vale as top promoted side in League 1.

Tom Pope and Lee Hughes will bang in goals for fun and I don't see any of Bradford, Rotherham or Gillingham doing anything better than mid-table finishes this season so something like 10th place for Vale could well be enough.

Coventry City deducted 10 points after transfer of share in Football League to Otium Entertainment Group

This gives the go ahead for the move to Northampton

wrote this on Monday for elsewhere

In League One, Port Vale who were promoted from League Two last season largely on the back of Tom Pope’s goals and a miserly defence should be much more competitive than their 50-1 odds imply. Managed by Micky Adams the defence from last season is retained and the recruitment of Gavin Tomlin from Southend, scorer of 16 goals last year gives Pope the strike partner he needs. Last season’s second top scorer was much travelled Jennison Myrie-Williams and Tomlin’s arrival should take some pressure off Pope. Goalscorers, tight defence, experienced manager is a combination that makes unheralded Port Vale an attractive option on handicaps.

League One

Port Vale +25 points Handicap 20-1 Sky Bet

oh and while I am at it

League Two

Burton Albion 25/1 ew SkyBet and/or  Burton Albion + 17 18/1 SkyBet

In League Two, Burton Albion.

Burton Albion missed out in the League Two play-offs last year under talented manager Gary Rowett. This success led to the departure of  Calvin Zola and Jacques Maghoma joining Aberdeen and Sheffield Wednesday respectively, but manager Gary Rowett and his assistant Kevin Summerfield have recruited well bringing in Rene Howe and Adam Reed, players who have proven more than capable of performing at this level already. Howe chose Burton over a move to Hibs in the Scottish Premier League, which is interesting. I expect Burton to at least match last year’s top seven finish. In Howe and Billy Kee they will have goals for sure, prompted by Robbie Weir and the squad now has a strnegth in depth not seen before at Burton.

Behind the big guns in the league Portsmouth and Fleetwood, 25-1 is a very attractive each way price for a team, and a manager, going places



this was in an article for season long value bets and not just tipping QPR, Wolves, Fleetwood etc

Tighty, what do you think about Wimbledon +27 at 18/1 or +26 at 20/1?

Not too close to it

30 points off winning a handicap last year. safe to assume the club is becoming a bit more professional, experienced at this level especially if not dragged into a releagation battle too soon

Would be a small buyer but don't see it as a stunning handicap

I couldn't find any standout value on the handicap market as I ended up with 5 teams clumped together at around the 90-92 point mar, with another clump of team hovering around them in the high 80s.  Port Vale were one of them.

Based on gut feel to this previously, I though that Tranmere +25 was going to look like value too but I think the divisional point spread this season will look more like the few seasons before last year where the top 2-3 teams have had 85+ point tallies, which bring the pre-season favourites into the same ball-park.

Donny won the league last season with 84 points, but the 5 seasons preceding this have had winners with 101, 95, 95, 96 and 92 points.  The profile of teams this season suggests something similar to me this year.

Looks a good bet

Yeah, I said with the handicaps in place I think it'll be tight, but given that do you think the prices are a bit big? e/w looks good to me.