blonde poker forum

£20 single rebuy game at Notts. With an eye on the £300 double chance at walsall Saturday I decide rather than playing to cash like I normally do, I’m playing for the win, usually about £1k. In the 75 min rebuy period I’ve only had one genuine hand. KK in a 4 way pot with an all in and no side pot. Board has three aces on by the river and I can’t make a bet because I can only get called by a better hand. Still worth 8k though. By end of rebuy I’ve got my starting 5000 up to 20000 and take the top up to 25000. Chip leader on the table. I’m dealing so in the break I change my kidney dish for a chip rack because I’m determined to stay busy and I want to know where i am at all times. It’s going great and I’m over 30k when I have my first accident. There’s a player who’s limped UTG or early position several times with big hands like Q,Q, AK and AQ and then check called it all the way. Blinds 400/800 he limps UTG. I raise to 2800 with A,A and it passes round to him. He calls.
Flop K,x,x all clubs. He checks I bet 5k he calls.
Turn 7s he checks I bet 15k, sure that he hasn’t got a made flush.
He calls with  Ac Ks and rivers the flush.
I know he’s not passing with that flop but I’m 92% preflop, 55% on the flop and 75% on the turn.
Bugger, back to work.
I make a few moves and a top notch all in call with 10,9 with 2nd pair.
Then, in the SB I have 15k ish. Blinds are 600/1200. Passes round to Bongo in the cut off who makes it 3200. He has 3500 back. I call with 8,8 planning to bet any flop with no A or K on it. BB calls too leaving her about 11k.
Flop is A,8,x so obviously I check it.
BB bets 3500
Bongo calls all in
I reraise to put me and the BB all in
My set stands up against AK and AQ
Back up to 38k
Table breaks and on my new table after two or three hands I’m in the cut off. Blinds 1000/2000
Young guy raises UTG to 10k
I have QQ and raise another 15k to put him in. button and blinds go away and he reluctantly calls with AQ. Another 90%+ favourite. (edit 70%)
Flops the A and I’m down to 13k.

Not long after that it’s 1500/3000 and I have 12000, see  Ac 3c and take my shot. Called by 8,8 and I’m done.

Poker’s brutal!!
Sometimes I wish I was crap at the game so I could quit or just play ‘for fun’. Trouble is, I feel like I’ve got a decent game but the beats are killing me. I know I’m five times the player I was two and a half years ago when I first played at the casino and ten times again than when I started playing 5 years ago but I’m cashing less. I’m cashing more OFTEN, but it’s bad beat bustouts in the early stages of finals or it’s beats knocking me out late comp. I mentioned a few weeks ago I bubbled having been dealt A,10 twice as my highest ace and not 1 pair all night. In some ways I feel better about not cashing but going so deep with no cards than finalling with the deck having hit me in the face (i wish). Tonight I got hit with two rotten beats but survived because of good play before and after. I'm just running out of coping strategies for the bad run I’m going through. If I was losing coin flips or 60/40s I could cope but it’s the 9/2 shots and the 90%+ shots that are the worst thing. Generally when I get knocked out of a comp theres a collective groan from the table because it’s a horrible beat. Still, at least I’ve learned to take a beat gracefully.

Kill me now!

Hi Adam,

Sorry to be pedantic but last time I checked QQ v AQ was a 70% shot.  :blonde:

The main problem with playing live as opposed to online, apart from having to leave the house, is receiving 25 hands per hour compared to 200 hands per hour (assume 3-tabling online).

So obviously the'long-term' takes eight times longer to reach live than it does online. Ie, one night of online play is equivalent to one week of live play.

This means that a run of bad luck (natural variance) like you are experiencing in your live play, is going to be hugely magnified playing live as opposed to online, in terms of real time. Which is why I think anyone playing poker seriously as their main source of income should concentrate the vast bulk of their play online.

I'm sure you realise all this already but it's a point that often gets overlooked.

Hope your luck turns soon..

To be honest Adam, I'd say that calling with 8-8, hitting a set, and being payed off by A-K and A-Q holdings, both of whom have hit top pair, is pretty darn lucky too. And it was a treble up to boot!

It works both ways. Don't just assume your game is decent just because you get a couple of bad beats throughout the night. Remember, the tight players are always going to run into outdraws, so perhaps you shouldn't assume that it's just bad luck. There are so many ways to improve your game.

Also, it's obvious that you're letting the bad beats, lack of cards, outdraws, etc get to you, and, from my experience, once you start to allow this to happen, the game suddenly becomes that much harder. You need to relax, accept the beats, and learn to take them in your stride. If you feel the need to slam the table, tell the whole forum about them, or whatever, then you really need to learn some restraint. It really will improve your game ten fold as when you aren't affected so much by the bad beats, you don't fear them. It's hard not to report them, but give it a try. After a while, you'll learn to hold them in and they'll just become 'part of the game'. Then you can really start playing with the freedom and comfort that is required to win these comps.

Also, I don't understand why you'd only be called by a better hand with those pocket kings.

Sounds brutal, but that's my advice. Like it or lump it stylee., but I wouldn't be offering my views and taing the time to respond if I wasn't bothered.

Not pedantic at all IMO.

If you feel like you've lost a 90% shot every time you've lost a 70% shot, you're just torturing yourself.
It'll be that much harder to win if you think you're the unluckiest guy in the world. Negative attitude brings negative results.

Ok if that wasn't pedantic I wanted to add this also.

With three aces on board and you holding KK, you have the second nuts (unless a Royal Flush is possible). You say there was 8k in the pot. I don't know how deep the stacks were at this point, but to say you can only be called by a better hand seems a bit ridiculous. I'm sure a reasonable bet by you is often going to be paid off by a smaller pocket pair than KK or if someone has paired the higher of the two other cards on the board.

Also, a better hand, ie somebody holding the case ace, isn't going to call you (they will raise, unless they are incredibly stupid), unless your bet covers them. If their remaining stack is that small then surely you aren't going to check/fold to them (I assume if you checked and they bet allin for less than the pot, then you would call?), so surely betting yourself is better for the times you will be paid off by weaker hands that would otherwise check behind you. And, in the case where you are last to act of the three remaining players and they check the river to you then surely a value bet is an absolute must, as it is extremely rare for someone to check the nuts on the river with an allin player and no sidepot?

 

with the KK hand you perhaps kind of had to be there. I raised, there was a call,  an all in under-raise, a call from BB, my call, and then then the original callers call. flop A,A,x check, I check, check (any one of them could have an A). turn a third A checked to me and I felt if I bet it and the all in guy has the ace (not unlikely as he's re-raised me) then I gain nothing, and if the other two players are going to pass unless they have the ace. they'll probably call with the case ace rather than raise with it. they'd have the nuts and I'bet out twice. certainly the guy with position is morelikely to call and hope I have another go at it on the river. then if I check the river and they move in and I'm in a mess. or even worse they do that having paired one of the other cards, not putting me on the big pair. if they are sure they have the best hand all my reads on them will be strength and it'd be next to imposible to rule out quads. there wasnt a right time to bet it. I didnt see a way i was winning more than the 8k in the pot.  i thought about value betting the river but by then I was positive niether player with chips was interested so didnt bother.

I had an odds calculator up to work out the AAvAK hand. while it was there I put the AQ v QQ hand in. it was late, I must of put it in as AAvAQ :blonde: obviously a 70/30 I know that without putting it in.

snoops, I don't bang tables when I take a beat like these. infact the final where you saw my AA beat by KK is the only time I can remember doing it and that was because I'd been in another bad spell and had hit the final for the first time in ages and really needed a decent cash. usually (including last night)  I shrug my shoulders and politely pass my chips over. your advise to try not telling the board??? bit disappointed by that. some people post about a bad run in $2 online MTTs and they would get a string of encouraging pats on the back. why would I not feel I could come to the forum for support. the 8,8 v AQ v AK is hardly lucky. I've had the best hand going in, been fairly sure where I was in the hand preflop, ie I'm pretty sure Bongo is on a big A and I have the BB on a range of hands so am paying close attention to her on the flop. it's designed to be a stop and go rather than a call to hit a set. once it's come I don't 'go' and let them bet it instead. I have enough to pass if I pick up strength from the BB and I dont like the flop

I know my game can improve all the time and I know it is doing, but I dont think its wrong for me to have some confidence in myself at the level I'm playing at. rather than just a couple of bad beats, it's the series of outdraws I'm suffering. I actually refered to you, snoopy in a conversation about this afterwards. you said to another poster before that tighter players are more likely to go out to bad beats. makes good sense. I've been working on having a more aggressive game early so I can pick up some chips and survive the beats like I did last night. after the AAvAK i got myself back to a healthy position before the QQvAQ put me back down again. there's no stage in the AAvAK hand I could have made him pass, the hand played itself. the guys call with AQ is a bad one, but not uncommon in these comps. I dont think he's put me on a hand. Im only likely to be reraiseing him there with AA,KK,QQ,AK especially as there were 3 biggish stacks between me and him. he still makes the loose call I want him to make.

nevermind, I'll pat myself on the back and get back out there Sunday I suppose.

Adam,stop beating your self up mate.it was just one of those days,not one familiar face in the final.your just going through a slow patch but im sure it will come back mate

Re: £300 at Walsall, theres a super satellite Friday (£5!!) and Saturday 2.30pm I believe (£20) so they might be easier ways of getting a seat?

thanks Simon, looking into that

That's how I saw the hand playing out, so I was loving the A. I would have left as soon as you check raised but I was waiting for you to deal yourself another huge beat  ;)

I thought you took the beats really well and got on with the game really well, I don't think you need to worry about your temperament in that respect. I also don't think it's affecting your game as you don't seem to be playing negatively fearing the outdraw - I don't think you can make some of the (good) calls you do if you were playing scared.

Maybe it's a case that in the past you were playing more "weaktight" and so:
a) Had less chance of getting outdrawn when you finally committed chips
b) Other players would avoid big pots with you as thay had you pegged as a "nuts" player

On another note what an odd table we had this week...

wasnt it? seemed like it might be a tough one to start with but by the time you arrived the stronger players seemed to have backed off or almost gone into trap mode and the weaker players were feeding the pots and not getting done.

thanks for those word mate, i am trying to shake the 'nuts player' image some have of me. i'm a tighter than average player but I hope I'm becoming more selectively aggressive at the same time. I'm really working on my people reading skills and, the more I start to trust my reads, the more pressure calls I'm making. In those two big pots against Dennis last week my instinct was to call both times. shame I bottled the second one hey?

Yes, I did think by checking the turn you would be setting yourself up for a big decision on the river as he was betting at any sign of weakness, maybe it's a shame that it brought such a horrible card.

You did the same sort of thing this week (but called) in that battle of the blinds.

Jon said he thought you made a great call and that he might have passed. I said I would have had an easy decision as I'd have been all in on the turn  :D

As to shaking the nuts player image - my point was that maybe it's working and you're now getting more action which obviously increases your chance of getting outdrawn...

in general you might be right, but niether of the beats last night were handed out by players thinking about my hand for one second.

for anyone else reading, the hand Bongo is talking about went like this.
passed round to me in SB. Lady in BB isnt great. she's been betting if she has ANY part of the flop and been calling if she has ANY draw (or sometimes no hand / no draw). I've picked up her BB the last couple of rounds so decide to try and do it after the flop for a change. I had 10,9. flop was 10 high so I bet 2000. blinds were 400/800 so pot is 1600. she calls quickly. turn is another undercard. I agree with Bongo, I should push here.  I check and she bets 2000. I called, putting her on 2nd or 3rd pair with an Ace. she'd been checking a lot of rivers so there was a good chance that's all it'd cost me. river brought a Q. I checked and she bet 5000. I only had 4000. I knew she could make the bet without the Q but wasnt sure she could do it without the 10. I ran through some of the filth I'd seen her showdown and went back through the hand and still fancied her for 3rd pair. as it turns out she had 10,8 so I hadnt got her hand right but I had pipped her and I was back in the game. this wasn't long before the 8,8 AK AQ hand.

Have to agree with both points here. A8 flop when you have 88 vs AK and AQ is even better than flopping set over set. If that isnt lucky then what is??

Kings god only knows how you dont get some value out of it, 4 players in this pot its highly unlikely anyone has an ace so pocket pairs are probable, screaming for a value bet.

Stop worrying about the bad beats and re-examine the hands you won aswell because you will be making mistakes in them, evreyone does.

Adam, I'm not sure what you want me to say. I tried to take the time out to answer the question in the title of the thread as best as I could. If you don't like the advice then fair enough, but it must be worth considering at least. Apologies if it is blunt, but I'm just trying to help the best I can.

I don't see the point in just saying, 'Yes, you are very unlucky. There, there, it'll all be okay next time'. Players who always concern themselves with the bad luck are always going to find this game an uphill struggle. I recall around bubble time once you moving in on my big blind. I knew you had a hand, you knew I had rags, but I could tell that you wanted me to fold because you were scared of bubbling. In my opinion you should want a call as you have the superior hand, possibly dominating, and want some chips for the final. My advice still stands, stop worrying about the outdraws, ie, resist the temptation to moan about them, and free yourself from the fear of being an unlucky player. It happens, simple as, and once you get used to that fact, you'll find yourself more at ease with your game. I promise it's a lot easier to win comps when you're less tense.

 :goodpost: boss.

A fine line really, Not much point in recanting tales of all-in coups that went the wrong way when your strong dominating hand was outdrawn by a less strong hand in a situation where the chips were always going in. It can even be self destructive as above posters have mentioned.

At the same time, good posts about hands that you think might possibly have been played better are very welcome and helpful for everyone.

Does sound like you played very well and its only a matter of time before you get some decent results again though. Getting out of the self-indulgent feeling sorry for your luck mindset will definately help.

 ;goodluck; (Although there's no such thing ;) )

Im not dismissing te advise, infact I've taken some of it on board. I'm just saying, telling me I shouldn't post about it seems a little against the 'Blonde spirit' I'm posting, not to 'moan' about bad beats but to get some constructive critisism.

I don't consider myself an unlucky player. I don't believe in luck as anything other than a descriptive tool. unfortunately it's a tool Im having to use a fair bit at the moment

thinking about it, that was the game I was saying you watched me get AA bust by KK in the first round at the final. I particularly didnt want to bubble that night because I was on the verge of breaking a bad spell of about 3 months without a final. that was the first wednesday game of december. I went on to final 4 times a month december, january and february after that. also, as it was just before christmas, i was desperate for a decent cash. didnt come that night but not bubbling did my confidence the world of good.

There are two ways that a person might take snoopy's comment:

1) If you post on the boards about bad runs you're big whinger and shouldn't lay your bad beats on others to read. OR....
2) If you don't let the bad beats get to you, you won't feel the urge to worry about them (and so post about them) and this will benefit your play.

I guarantee you Snoops meant the second one (Noone on here would mean the first!). You are perhaps understandably perceiving it as the otherbecause you are on a bad run at the moment and hey, that gets to us all. I think rather he was highlighting the fact that there is a difference between being classy at the table (as you obviously are Adam!) hiding the anger of bad beats, and to not actually be phased by them at all.

At the moment I'm in a good zone of being philosophical about my bad beats. Yesterday I went out the laddies WSOP final with AK v AJ, the 100rebuy with AK v AT and the 50rebuy AA v QQ, all preflop and within an hour, but I was playing well and in the end that's all you can do. I'll just continue trying to get my money in with the best of it, and work on mixing it up a bit more.

It'll come good Adam, no worries.

That'll be £1.50p for those three Jammer  ;reallyamsorry;

Im sure Snoops did mean the latter, but to say that no-one here would say the former isn't right.

they are getting me down. I used to go home from tourneys deconstructing hands where I either got completely outplayed or just ran into a beter hand and didnt see it. for the last 6 months I've been driving home mumbling bad beat bad beat.

at the table I'm remaining positive and not to let it affect my game. off the table you have to vent. rather than just reel off bad beats, I thought I'd put it in perspective of the whole game and how the key hands fitted together.

Well, there you go then... if you're going home mumbling bad beat bad beat instead of deconstructing your hands, then you're letting the bad beats phase you... so STOP IT. It's doing you no good at all.

It's very rare that anyone plays the optimum tournament, so start assessing your game again. f*** the bad beats, you're gonna get lots more, get used to it (boy, I don't think I've ever used the f word on here b4).

I'm not going to sympathise and say, 'It'll turn, don't worry, etc, etc', cos that won't do you any good. Just trying to help m8.

full of tact today arent you?

 ;iagree; :goodpost:


 ;iagree; :goodpost:

Sounds like the posts of someone who has experienced something similar........

 rotflmfao He is a big bag of sunshine innit?

A well meaning bag of sunshine though.

Yes, no offence intended.

Someone seems to be forgetting that a large number of people that play in Notts don't play the odds, and most of them love a gamble.

and if you think Having AA cracked by KK is bad..
How about
AA vs JJ ..
Flop of K,Q,10 ...(bargain)
Turn- Jack(....)
River- Jack.

Can i just ask a question? (or 2...)
In the same comp did you outdraw anyone?
Have you outdrawn anyone in recent comps?
Basically i think there is a balance with these things but when you start to forget one side of the scales the other side weighs heavier.

No ian, i NEVER outdraw anyone. I only ever go in ahead 8)
seriously though, if one side of being a tight player is I get knocked out by outdrawsmore often it also means I hand out fat less beats. only time I ever outdraw people is when they don't bet enough with big pairs and I'm allowed to sneak in with smaller pairs and hit a set. similarly early comp if I'm allowed to see cheap flops with suited aces I may do someone with a bigger ace.

I dont recall outdrawing anyone last night, no. I also dont recall any big out draws i've inflicted recently, but then I wouldnt would I

ian goes in with that bad of a hand he cant even outdraw anyone rotflmfao. 

ian, are you going to play any of the sats at walsall for the weekend. i was going to go this afternoon but i cant get a babysitter i mean im enjoying spending time with my kids.

i might go tomorrow night though.

I was just trying to point you back to a more balanced view of these things Adam, if you recall your outdraws you might see a sense of justice overall and maybe not dwell so much on the negative side.
I am VERY philosophical when it comes to badbeats because i have inflicted some absolute corkers on some (not as bad as the ones Dan has inflicted on me mind).

I shall be there tomorrow for sure Dan and i shall be hoping and praying to have the good fortune pleasure of your company on my table mate  :D

I'm afraid I dont believe in there being any balance to it. there's no 'law of averages' and no Karma, fate, justice or fairness involved. if my last 9 pairs of aces held up, my 10th is no more less likely to win.

the last hand of poker i played with you i raised a small part of my stack and you called all in  :D i thought my AQ might be no good and i was right you turned over that well know monster  8c 4d i was still shaking when the flop came A high  rotflmfao.

i too shall hope for your company the table.( if dani versace reads this there is a drink in it for you if you can fix it ;)) dani just let me know beforehand and i wont bother to bring any rebuy money :D

Any time I suffer a bad beat I remember the two times in two days when I had set over set and rivered quads both times. ;)

Ifm - win that seat man. I can't wait to bust you. PLEASE be on my table!

Seriously it'd be fun if you were there Saturday, loads of blondes lined up, Jen & snoops, Red, Old Karabiner, Chunky Mick, etc, & it's a lovely comp. 425 are lined up, so go win that seat, all you blondes.

xx

I have already fixed it with Dani, I want ifm to my immediate right, jen to his right, then sloppy, then Red. Easy money.

But the same "law of averages" says that if you get AA three times and come up against KK on all three occasions and your tournament life is either on the line or you would be severly crippled if you lost, then nearly 50% of the time your tournament would be ending early.

Chances of AA winning vs KK = 80%

0.8x0.8x0.8=0.514

Therefore if you walk AA into KK three times you will be out of the tourney half the time - sure it looks like a terrible beat but if you analyze it properly your tournament exit is more likely to happen than you think.

Of course its unlikely that it will be AA vs KK three times but you can substitute any overpair vs underpair and if you are a tight solid player then this is more likely to happen in any tournament you play.

thats what I'm saying, no you wont.
300,000 times maybe you get close to half

Don't let monkeys near calculators.... ;)

Matt I think you've misread that one. The calculation you've done shows the chance of winning all 3 hands with the AA.

ie one hand you've an 80% chance of winning.
2 hands the chance of winning both is 64%
3 hands it's 51%
etc

The problem is staistical variance - a sample of 3, the variance is huge, 300,000 you should be pretty close to 240,000 - the original 80%

If you reread my post i say "if your tournament life is on the line or if you would be severly crippled if you lost". By that i mean that you have to win all 3 times to stay in the tournament.

I made the following quote on a thread titled "torni" on the internet poker section about 5 months back

"The simple fact of the matter is that being all in is a risky proposition, and risk is what you want to avoid in tournaments until you absolutely have to face it. This is why racing early in a tournament is just plain foolish, and yet bad players do it constantly.

Whenever you are all in and not holding the absolute nuts with no cards to come, there is a chance you can get eliminated. Add up those small chances to get eliminated over the course of the tourney and it proves that it is very likely you will be eliminated somwhere."

wuh? The point is expectation. If I play AA v KK enough I know at somepoint I'm going to lose, and it won't be that infrequent. So when it does happen, its annoying, but not unexpected. I certainly don't need 300,000 runs at it.

Look what happens, well it just happens. There is no point even considering it. So obviously the 'law of averages' is nonsense, and probability theory is merely about getting a rein on expectation for the future so one can put things into perspective.

Considering 'Luck' is simply a case of incorrectly marrying the two viewpoints.

I think this is a cracking point and what most players (including myself) get completely wrong.

The pain is gonna come. Statistically that loss against the odds is going to happen. The trick is to have enough chips that you're not knocked out. If your a predictable, tight, straight down the line 'I'm only gonna play when I'm ahead' type of player, how often are you going to have that many chips to absorb it? This is what I'm personally trying to address in my game at the moment and maybe its worth considering too Adam.

AH - now I get it. I'll go away quietly now, chastened. :blonde:

LOL, no need squire - your first quote that you shouldnt let monkeys near calculators is actually a very valid one. It also stretches further to all items of an electronic nature as well!!  :D

course it happens, and we know roughly how many times AA wil beat KK over all, but what I'm saying is if you're in that situation two or three times in a night what happened the previous times has no direct baring on what happens next time. If I get AA 3 times in a night and the all hold up against under pairs that doesn't make me 'lucky' they are singular events and as the cards have no memory, I remain 80% when the chips go in. The law of averages as most people talk about it and the application of actual statistic arent the same thing. if AA comes up against KK 5 times the 'law' says it'll be 4-1 to the aces. thats obviously not true. (sound of people with too much time on their hands reaching for cards)

Anyway as I said, I'm not complaining about the beats, I just wanted to put down in writing a particularly trying series of hands and games.

it just proves the fact that if you give enough monkey's enough calculators.... er... something to do with shakespeare... er... and maybe spelling 'boobies' upside down in numbers and finding it hysterical. Er... not sure where I'm going with this....

I think the ending is "thanks to the Internet we know it's not true"

If you put a thousand monkeys in a room with a thousand type writers for a thousand years, at some point most of them will write an article about the "Poker Boom" and all about it being down to Chris Moneymaker, the WPT and James McManus's Positevely Fifth Street.

thanks alot for your support tikay.

not a mention of go win that seat dan just ifm.

thanks boss ;tk;

Hmm....

As much as I'm sure Adam is grateful for the constructive critisism I would guess all of us have been in his shoes at one point and needed to just get it off our chests. I agree with what everyone has said - completely.

How about some encouragement too though eh?

From what I can tell he was pretty unlucky. If he keeps putting his chips into play in spots like these he wont go far wrong in the long run.

No, the 10th is no more less likely to win...you're right there...the same way if you flip a coin and it's heads, it's still equally likely to be heads or tails next coin toss.
However... in the long-run your aces, will hold up against kings... whatever the odds are (84 out of 100 times?...or more appropriately 84 million/billion/excessive unit  out of every 100 million/billion/excessive unit)...hense the law of averages.

exactly, but if a poker player gets dealt aces 5 times in a night and they win the first four times, then on the fifth time he gets them cracked and says "ah well, they won the last four times, I can't expect them to win a fifth" he's wrong. he can still expect them to win that time. because you cant apply it to any single occurance it's not realy a law as such.

also AAvKK and AAv66 are as near as damn it the same % however I KK will beat AA a lot more than 66 will because the money will go all in less often with 6,6 so AA v a lower pair is virtually impossible to work out because it implys the money goes in preflop and it very often wont

Unfortunately Dan after the last sat you won a seat in you need to play another 8,999,456 before you will win another.............
Tikay........bring it on son

Son? Is he having a laugh?  ;tk;

Jammer hits the nail on the head.

It's operating with small stacks - as I used to all the time (hence all those damn bubbles!) - that causes the prob, any accident is fatal, whereas a deep-stack player can withstand the odd beat here & there, & can in fact make "iffy" calls, as it will not bust him if he loses the hand.

I am trying to rectify that "leak" in my game, hence I have started busting out a lot earlier than was previously the case, but it is the right course I think. It's not working for me Live yet, as I don't play as much Live as I would like to, but I will persist. But it's deffo working for me in online MTT's, where I am having a super run, mainly, I think, because I have recognized the "short-stack" problem.

Weird game this - most peeps are unable to take on board new ideas, they have "their" game, & blindly stick with it, through thick & thin.

But I look at The Camels, & Thewys & J P Kellys, always caked up early in comps, & I think HOW? They get, over time, the same cards as me, the same number of beats as me (& everyone else - we all get the same), but they keep making big Finals. So, it's out with the old, in with the new.

And as to folks making so-called "bad" calls against me - I LOVE IT. OK, they hit now & then, but over time I am guaranteed to come out on top,. So keep those bad calls coming please, I love 'em. Luckily, I'm a "glass half-full" man, so I don';t give a monkeys if someone puts a beat on me - I only get upset if I make a bad play.

And before some Muppet says it, yes, if I can learn new tricks at MY age.....

PS - Sorry Dan! Trying to Post & play at same time, I miissed that one. OK, BE ON MY TABLE. Gotta go, 6 left in the Laddies $250 Freeze, 5 get paid......

Behave.....

Similar to those lines from Tikay (son......of the oldest man on earth) my game changed quite a bit when a wise soul said to me:-

"you have to put yourself in a position to outdraw people"

Now, i think there are many ways to interpret that sentence but i think it helped me immensely in gathering chips (or busting fairly early).
The wise soul?
Flushy

Thewy  - who gets by - lives by that mantra. Dad.

Flushy - wise = oxymoron. Or just moron?

Seems like Tikay and IFM touched on it before i caould get to it but the basic point is in tournaments if you only get your money in when you are ahead you are almost certainley a losing player. Strange as it sounds, perfect for cash games yes, but in a comp if you are not outdrawing anyone you are playing far too tight.

Now obviously i dont mean just a blind panic all in with 23 lets get lucky. I mean if we are playing a comp well and are getting some cards we should be able to build a stack that is beyond average, this gets us into a position where we can become a lot more creative with out pre flop hand selection. Now occasionaly we will be played back on, either pre or post flop, and we will be getting a correct price to call against our oppo's range. This of course means occasionaly we will be making really bad calls. (my most recent one being in Brighton where i had 70k when the average was about 15-20k, i raised with 7d 5d and then got a short stack move in behind, given i was getting 2.5-1 i called. Turns out he had TT!! Never mind i hit the Q7J57 board pretty well, does that mean i played badly? No i dont think so i was playing my stack hard with a good table image and got unlucky to be in that position, but hey i got out of it! I adapted my play after with the table thinking i was a loon and i managed to get AK to call all in on a T hi board thinking i was at it again, however i had AA.....

There is also the regular occurance where with a big stack you might be seeing a lot of flops after medium stacks have raised. You may then asses against your opponets range that you can go over the top of his continuation bet and win the pot, occasionly you will be wrong and then sometimes you will outdraw. None of these plays are muppety/bad/lucky its all about the wider picture.

If i played for a whole day and didnt outdraw someone i would be disapointed with how i have played.....

Right thats it HU game old man!

Yes, I have, and this is why I was trying to help. Just being blunt because I thought that was the best policy to get my point across, didn't mean to sound overly critical, offensive, or argumentative.

... but I'm sure Adam knew that anyway.

If we all commiserate with his outdraws and say 'hard luck, there, there,' he won't get anywhere. I used to do this, way too much... and mainly in the chatboxes, and it just made me more and more angry... and made me lose my focus on the game.

Poker's a tough game when you're always cursing your luck.

I've been thinking about 'form' since I started this thread.
I first played at the casino Jan 04 and made a 3 way count for £1670
I finalled 3 out of my first 4 attempts
something like 7 from my first 10
by the end of 2004 it settled down to 10 from 30
then between Jan 2005 and November 2005 I couldn'y hit the final table if I threw a chair at it. I scraped into a couple of 10th/9th spots but other than that nothing.
then after the game me and snoops talked about earlier in the thread where I scraped into the final and got AA bust first round I went on to final 14 times between Dec 1st and mid march.
since then I've had a series of terrible beats, the first of which was an AAvQQ that lost me a pot which would have seen me final with 40% of the chips in play. since then I've been back to scraping the odd £100 cash but not making the business end of any tourneys.

So what's happening?
well my best results and biggest cashes all came when I was a far worse player but wasnt relying on the cashes to pay the weekly grocery shop. I'm probably playing a lot more pots because I was a total rock when I started playing there. I'm getting good at getting my pots very big when I have very big hands. I'm picking up a lot of small / medium pots on semi bluffs or total steal and being generally busier but when I have AAvAK or QQvAQ or AAvKK I'm getting the pots nice and big. that means that when the variance swings back my way I'll be getting myself chipped up.
I'm trying very hard to play 'proper' poker around bubble time but that'll improve when I have a decent cash and get a little breathing space.
I think the main thing I can control is frame of mind. If I can stay positive and not let it get me down (as suggested by my blunt friends here) I'm sure I'll turn this bad run into a spring board for a run of results. even in bad runs like this I'm either finalling short or at least getting to semi so a few better breaks from the deck and I should get myself back on track

Adam i still think you are missing the point, you APPEAR to have a losing outlook on the game.....



While you normally play to cash you will NOT be a winning player. Change that and let the cards worry about themselves

I think you're missing the point of my situation. in the first year I was keeping my winnings as a bankroll and was working. through all this there's been a house move, two jobs lost (one through illness/stress and one through redundancy) a business set up and a second child arrive. All that wiped my bankroll out twice over. I have to play to cash because there are pressing money issues every week. I'm aware of the need to get ahead so I dont have to worry about this weeks bills during this weeks game. By the sentence you've quoted, you can see I'm working on that but I'm a shining example of why it's important to be properly bankrolled. Thats not something I can put right with the click of my fingers and cashing remains the priority in every tourney. I only need a couple of my finals to be converted to top three finishes for the pressure to be off and for me to play the games less affraid of the bubble. Thats why the beats are so frustrating you see. If I'm getting deep in a tourney and I look like finalling with double average chips then my aces get cracked by the only other deep stack holding Queens it's double the pain because the light at the end of the tunnel is snuffed out.

I'm not letting the need to cash affect many of my decisions at the table. As Bongo reassured me, I'm still playing, not to avoid being knocked out, but playing to accumulate chips. My situation just sways me in marginal situations. the opposite to the effect Julian was discussing sponsorship had on his game on 425 the other week. when it comes to an all or nothing gamble I have to back off and Julian, or a properly bankrolled player can take the shot.

Im playing the £20 single rebuy and the £30 freeze because those are the smallest games available. a wednesday pays £1k for 1st and the sunday about £600. one top two finish gives me some breathing space and a second gives me a workable bankroll. THEN I can start really playing in the moment, without having to have an eye on the food cupboards.

Adam let me introduce you to "regression to the mean"

Well Adam i don't really know what to say here.

Your bankroll is that thin, and you rely on it to feed you and your family!

All the other advice is useless in this thread, my only advice would be to get a job for now, give yourself some stability and less stress! Then down the line when you have enough cash you can go back to playing the game.

I agree with this.

Also you are playing one if the highest variance forms of poker. Live MTT's. 30 hands an hour with 10% of the field paid. Even if you think you have a 100% ROI in these things, in a £20 single rebuy comp you are going to average £40 for eight hours 'work', and it's going to take years for your luck to average out. 

Surely you would be better off playing online single table tournaments. Easy money with a lot less variance and you can make many more investments (in terms of buyin's) in the same timescale.

a job is sometimes tempting, but the easy way out. I have the shirt making equipment, the stock and gradually increasing orders. the shirts company is designed to pay the bills. just a case of survival until then.

I do play online but I'm better live. also, without the proper bankroll to cope with the swings I struggle to keep runs going online. I have to cash out far too much.

When DTD opens, the chance to add live STTs to my earning is something to look forward to, but I'll need to get a roll together before that because I wont be able to subsidise my playing with dealing, as it'll all be self dealt.

I agree - with that on your mind you are never going to make the right calls at the right time.

I know a well known player who is always broke and although a good player, because his life depends on every game, he gives himself extra pressure and makes some absolutely terrible calls when he knows he is beat - but he starts to believe in the poker fairy, luck anything.

Fair do's i hope the shirts really take off.

How much better live are you than online? Like Rob says you can have a big edge live and still only be making £5/hr if online your edge was half that you could play 5x as many games a night and make more profit! (with less variance!)

Sounds like DTD will be just the thing for you.

I have the same problem online as a few others mentioned on another thread yesterday. I loose focus online much easier than live. My people reading skills are coming along much faster than my technical game so much of my advantage is lost online. That's not to say I dont feel my technical game isnt improving, it's just not the strongest part of my overall game. In the tourneys I'm playing live at least 50% of the field are REALLY bad. there are plenty of players who know what they're doing but they're regular faces and you get to know their games pretty well.

Online I've always concentrated on STTs but the trouble is the baby rarely gives me a straight hour to play one, and one isnt much of a session anyway. So I've been dipping my toes into cash. I've only started small $.25/$.50 initially and I'm having some decent sessions. but I'm having to cash out as I go because of the live drought I've been talking about. when I do get a long session, like this afternoon for example, I've decided to concentrate on the 180 seat STTs on stars. I made two finals yesterday but blew up with 6 left both times. not outdraws, just misreads that Im sure Id have got right live. I'm starting with the $4 ones but I'll be onto the $20 a soon as I can.