whats a guy got to do to win a game of poker???

[AdamM]

£20 single rebuy game at Notts. With an eye on the £300 double chance at walsall Saturday I decide rather than playing to cash like I normally do, I’m playing for the win, usually about £1k. In the 75 min rebuy period I’ve only had one genuine hand. KK in a 4 way pot with an all in and no side pot. Board has three aces on by the river and I can’t make a bet because I can only get called by a better hand. Still worth 8k though. By end of rebuy I’ve got my starting 5000 up to 20000 and take the top up to 25000. Chip leader on the table. I’m dealing so in the break I change my kidney dish for a chip rack because I’m determined to stay busy and I want to know where i am at all times. It’s going great and I’m over 30k when I have my first accident. There’s a player who’s limped UTG or early position several times with big hands like Q,Q, AK and AQ and then check called it all the way. Blinds 400/800 he limps UTG. I raise to 2800 with A,A and it passes round to him. He calls.
Flop K,x,x all clubs. He checks I bet 5k he calls.
Turn he checks I bet 15k, sure that he hasn’t got a made flush.
He calls with  and rivers the flush.
I know he’s not passing with that flop but I’m 92% preflop, 55% on the flop and 75% on the turn.
Bugger, back to work.
I make a few moves and a top notch all in call with 10,9 with 2nd pair.
Then, in the SB I have 15k ish. Blinds are 600/1200. Passes round to Bongo in the cut off who makes it 3200. He has 3500 back. I call with 8,8 planning to bet any flop with no A or K on it. BB calls too leaving her about 11k.
Flop is A,8,x so obviously I check it.
BB bets 3500
Bongo calls all in
I reraise to put me and the BB all in
My set stands up against AK and AQ
Back up to 38k
Table breaks and on my new table after two or three hands I’m in the cut off. Blinds 1000/2000
Young guy raises UTG to 10k
I have QQ and raise another 15k to put him in. button and blinds go away and he reluctantly calls with AQ. Another 90%+ favourite. (edit 70%)
Flops the A and I’m down to 13k.

Not long after that it’s 1500/3000 and I have 12000, see  and take my shot. Called by 8,8 and I’m done.

Poker’s brutal!!
Sometimes I wish I was crap at the game so I could quit or just play ‘for fun’. Trouble is, I feel like I’ve got a decent game but the beats are killing me. I know I’m five times the player I was two and a half years ago when I first played at the casino and ten times again than when I started playing 5 years ago but I’m cashing less. I’m cashing more OFTEN, but it’s bad beat bustouts in the early stages of finals or it’s beats knocking me out late comp. I mentioned a few weeks ago I bubbled having been dealt A,10 twice as my highest ace and not 1 pair all night. In some ways I feel better about not cashing but going so deep with no cards than finalling with the deck having hit me in the face (i wish). Tonight I got hit with two rotten beats but survived because of good play before and after. I'm just running out of coping strategies for the bad run I’m going through. If I was losing coin flips or 60/40s I could cope but it’s the 9/2 shots and the 90%+ shots that are the worst thing. Generally when I get knocked out of a comp theres a collective groan from the table because it’s a horrible beat. Still, at least I’ve learned to take a beat gracefully.

Kill me now!

[RobS]

I have QQ and raise another 15k to put him in. button and blinds go away and he reluctantly calls with AQ. Another 90%+ favourite.
Flops the A and I’m down to 13k.

Hi Adam,

Sorry to be pedantic but last time I checked QQ v AQ was a 70% shot. 

The main problem with playing live as opposed to online, apart from having to leave the house, is receiving 25 hands per hour compared to 200 hands per hour (assume 3-tabling online).

So obviously the'long-term' takes eight times longer to reach live than it does online. Ie, one night of online play is equivalent to one week of live play.

This means that a run of bad luck (natural variance) like you are experiencing in your live play, is going to be hugely magnified playing live as opposed to online, in terms of real time. Which is why I think anyone playing poker seriously as their main source of income should concentrate the vast bulk of their play online.

I'm sure you realise all this already but it's a point that often gets overlooked.

Hope your luck turns soon..

[snoopy1239]

To be honest Adam, I'd say that calling with 8-8, hitting a set, and being payed off by A-K and A-Q holdings, both of whom have hit top pair, is pretty darn lucky too. And it was a treble up to boot!

It works both ways. Don't just assume your game is decent just because you get a couple of bad beats throughout the night. Remember, the tight players are always going to run into outdraws, so perhaps you shouldn't assume that it's just bad luck. There are so many ways to improve your game.

Also, it's obvious that you're letting the bad beats, lack of cards, outdraws, etc get to you, and, from my experience, once you start to allow this to happen, the game suddenly becomes that much harder. You need to relax, accept the beats, and learn to take them in your stride. If you feel the need to slam the table, tell the whole forum about them, or whatever, then you really need to learn some restraint. It really will improve your game ten fold as when you aren't affected so much by the bad beats, you don't fear them. It's hard not to report them, but give it a try. After a while, you'll learn to hold them in and they'll just become 'part of the game'. Then you can really start playing with the freedom and comfort that is required to win these comps.

Also, I don't understand why you'd only be called by a better hand with those pocket kings.

Sounds brutal, but that's my advice. Like it or lump it stylee., but I wouldn't be offering my views and taing the time to respond if I wasn't bothered.

[thetank]

Sorry to be pedantic but last time I checked QQ v AQ was a 70% shot. 

Not pedantic at all IMO.

If you feel like you've lost a 90% shot every time you've lost a 70% shot, you're just torturing yourself.
It'll be that much harder to win if you think you're the unluckiest guy in the world. Negative attitude brings negative results.

[RobS]

Ok if that wasn't pedantic I wanted to add this also.

With three aces on board and you holding KK, you have the second nuts (unless a Royal Flush is possible). You say there was 8k in the pot. I don't know how deep the stacks were at this point, but to say you can only be called by a better hand seems a bit ridiculous. I'm sure a reasonable bet by you is often going to be paid off by a smaller pocket pair than KK or if someone has paired the higher of the two other cards on the board.

Also, a better hand, ie somebody holding the case ace, isn't going to call you (they will raise, unless they are incredibly stupid), unless your bet covers them. If their remaining stack is that small then surely you aren't going to check/fold to them (I assume if you checked and they bet allin for less than the pot, then you would call?), so surely betting yourself is better for the times you will be paid off by weaker hands that would otherwise check behind you. And, in the case where you are last to act of the three remaining players and they check the river to you then surely a value bet is an absolute must, as it is extremely rare for someone to check the nuts on the river with an allin player and no sidepot?

 

[AdamM]

with the KK hand you perhaps kind of had to be there. I raised, there was a call,  an all in under-raise, a call from BB, my call, and then then the original callers call. flop A,A,x check, I check, check (any one of them could have an A). turn a third A checked to me and I felt if I bet it and the all in guy has the ace (not unlikely as he's re-raised me) then I gain nothing, and if the other two players are going to pass unless they have the ace. they'll probably call with the case ace rather than raise with it. they'd have the nuts and I'bet out twice. certainly the guy with position is morelikely to call and hope I have another go at it on the river. then if I check the river and they move in and I'm in a mess. or even worse they do that having paired one of the other cards, not putting me on the big pair. if they are sure they have the best hand all my reads on them will be strength and it'd be next to imposible to rule out quads. there wasnt a right time to bet it. I didnt see a way i was winning more than the 8k in the pot.  i thought about value betting the river but by then I was positive niether player with chips was interested so didnt bother.

I had an odds calculator up to work out the AAvAK hand. while it was there I put the AQ v QQ hand in. it was late, I must of put it in as AAvAQ obviously a 70/30 I know that without putting it in.

snoops, I don't bang tables when I take a beat like these. infact the final where you saw my AA beat by KK is the only time I can remember doing it and that was because I'd been in another bad spell and had hit the final for the first time in ages and really needed a decent cash. usually (including last night)  I shrug my shoulders and politely pass my chips over. your advise to try not telling the board??? bit disappointed by that. some people post about a bad run in $2 online MTTs and they would get a string of encouraging pats on the back. why would I not feel I could come to the forum for support. the 8,8 v AQ v AK is hardly lucky. I've had the best hand going in, been fairly sure where I was in the hand preflop, ie I'm pretty sure Bongo is on a big A and I have the BB on a range of hands so am paying close attention to her on the flop. it's designed to be a stop and go rather than a call to hit a set. once it's come I don't 'go' and let them bet it instead. I have enough to pass if I pick up strength from the BB and I dont like the flop

I know my game can improve all the time and I know it is doing, but I dont think its wrong for me to have some confidence in myself at the level I'm playing at. rather than just a couple of bad beats, it's the series of outdraws I'm suffering. I actually refered to you, snoopy in a conversation about this afterwards. you said to another poster before that tighter players are more likely to go out to bad beats. makes good sense. I've been working on having a more aggressive game early so I can pick up some chips and survive the beats like I did last night. after the AAvAK i got myself back to a healthy position before the QQvAQ put me back down again. there's no stage in the AAvAK hand I could have made him pass, the hand played itself. the guys call with AQ is a bad one, but not uncommon in these comps. I dont think he's put me on a hand. Im only likely to be reraiseing him there with AA,KK,QQ,AK especially as there were 3 biggish stacks between me and him. he still makes the loose call I want him to make.

nevermind, I'll pat myself on the back and get back out there Sunday I suppose.

[littlemissC]

Adam,stop beating your self up mate.it was just one of those days,not one familiar face in the final.your just going through a slow patch but im sure it will come back mate

[redsimon]

Re: £300 at Walsall, theres a super satellite Friday (£5!!) and Saturday 2.30pm I believe (£20) so they might be easier ways of getting a seat?

[AdamM]

thanks Simon, looking into that

[Bongo]

the 8,8 v AQ v AK is hardly lucky. I've had the best hand going in, been fairly sure where I was in the hand preflop, ie I'm pretty sure Bongo is on a big A and I have the BB on a range of hands so am paying close attention to her on the flop. it's designed to be a stop and go rather than a call to hit a set. once it's come I don't 'go' and let them bet it instead. I have enough to pass if I pick up strength from the BB and I dont like the flop

That's how I saw the hand playing out, so I was loving the A. I would have left as soon as you check raised but I was waiting for you to deal yourself another huge beat 

I thought you took the beats really well and got on with the game really well, I don't think you need to worry about your temperament in that respect. I also don't think it's affecting your game as you don't seem to be playing negatively fearing the outdraw - I don't think you can make some of the (good) calls you do if you were playing scared.

Maybe it's a case that in the past you were playing more "weaktight" and so:
a) Had less chance of getting outdrawn when you finally committed chips
b) Other players would avoid big pots with you as thay had you pegged as a "nuts" player

On another note what an odd table we had this week...

[AdamM]

wasnt it? seemed like it might be a tough one to start with but by the time you arrived the stronger players seemed to have backed off or almost gone into trap mode and the weaker players were feeding the pots and not getting done.

thanks for those word mate, i am trying to shake the 'nuts player' image some have of me. i'm a tighter than average player but I hope I'm becoming more selectively aggressive at the same time. I'm really working on my people reading skills and, the more I start to trust my reads, the more pressure calls I'm making. In those two big pots against Dennis last week my instinct was to call both times. shame I bottled the second one hey?

[Bongo]

Yes, I did think by checking the turn you would be setting yourself up for a big decision on the river as he was betting at any sign of weakness, maybe it's a shame that it brought such a horrible card.

You did the same sort of thing this week (but called) in that battle of the blinds.

Jon said he thought you made a great call and that he might have passed. I said I would have had an easy decision as I'd have been all in on the turn 

As to shaking the nuts player image - my point was that maybe it's working and you're now getting more action which obviously increases your chance of getting outdrawn...

[AdamM]

in general you might be right, but niether of the beats last night were handed out by players thinking about my hand for one second.

for anyone else reading, the hand Bongo is talking about went like this.
passed round to me in SB. Lady in BB isnt great. she's been betting if she has ANY part of the flop and been calling if she has ANY draw (or sometimes no hand / no draw). I've picked up her BB the last couple of rounds so decide to try and do it after the flop for a change. I had 10,9. flop was 10 high so I bet 2000. blinds were 400/800 so pot is 1600. she calls quickly. turn is another undercard. I agree with Bongo, I should push here.  I check and she bets 2000. I called, putting her on 2nd or 3rd pair with an Ace. she'd been checking a lot of rivers so there was a good chance that's all it'd cost me. river brought a Q. I checked and she bet 5000. I only had 4000. I knew she could make the bet without the Q but wasnt sure she could do it without the 10. I ran through some of the filth I'd seen her showdown and went back through the hand and still fancied her for 3rd pair. as it turns out she had 10,8 so I hadnt got her hand right but I had pipped her and I was back in the game. this wasn't long before the 8,8 AK AQ hand.

[Royal Flush]

To be honest Adam, I'd say that calling with 8-8, hitting a set, and being payed off by A-K and A-Q holdings, both of whom have hit top pair, is pretty darn lucky too. And it was a treble up to boot!

Also, I don't understand why you'd only be called by a better hand with those pocket kings.

Have to agree with both points here. A8 flop when you have 88 vs AK and AQ is even better than flopping set over set. If that isnt lucky then what is??

Kings god only knows how you dont get some value out of it, 4 players in this pot its highly unlikely anyone has an ace so pocket pairs are probable, screaming for a value bet.

Stop worrying about the bad beats and re-examine the hands you won aswell because you will be making mistakes in them, evreyone does.

[snoopy1239]

with the KK hand you perhaps kind of had to be there. I raised, there was a call,  an all in under-raise, a call from BB, my call, and then then the original callers call. flop A,A,x check, I check, check (any one of them could have an A). turn a third A checked to me and I felt if I bet it and the all in guy has the ace (not unlikely as he's re-raised me) then I gain nothing, and if the other two players are going to pass unless they have the ace. they'll probably call with the case ace rather than raise with it. they'd have the nuts and I'bet out twice. certainly the guy with position is morelikely to call and hope I have another go at it on the river. then if I check the river and they move in and I'm in a mess. or even worse they do that having paired one of the other cards, not putting me on the big pair. if they are sure they have the best hand all my reads on them will be strength and it'd be next to imposible to rule out quads. there wasnt a right time to bet it. I didnt see a way i was winning more than the 8k in the pot.  i thought about value betting the river but by then I was positive niether player with chips was interested so didnt bother.

I had an odds calculator up to work out the AAvAK hand. while it was there I put the AQ v QQ hand in. it was late, I must of put it in as AAvAQ obviously a 70/30 I know that without putting it in.

snoops, I don't bang tables when I take a beat like these. infact the final where you saw my AA beat by KK is the only time I can remember doing it and that was because I'd been in another bad spell and had hit the final for the first time in ages and really needed a decent cash. usually (including last night)  I shrug my shoulders and politely pass my chips over. your advise to try not telling the board??? bit disappointed by that. some people post about a bad run in $2 online MTTs and they would get a string of encouraging pats on the back. why would I not feel I could come to the forum for support. the 8,8 v AQ v AK is hardly lucky. I've had the best hand going in, been fairly sure where I was in the hand preflop, ie I'm pretty sure Bongo is on a big A and I have the BB on a range of hands so am paying close attention to her on the flop. it's designed to be a stop and go rather than a call to hit a set. once it's come I don't 'go' and let them bet it instead. I have enough to pass if I pick up strength from the BB and I dont like the flop

I know my game can improve all the time and I know it is doing, but I dont think its wrong for me to have some confidence in myself at the level I'm playing at. rather than just a couple of bad beats, it's the series of outdraws I'm suffering. I actually refered to you, snoopy in a conversation about this afterwards. you said to another poster before that tighter players are more likely to go out to bad beats. makes good sense. I've been working on having a more aggressive game early so I can pick up some chips and survive the beats like I did last night. after the AAvAK i got myself back to a healthy position before the QQvAQ put me back down again. there's no stage in the AAvAK hand I could have made him pass, the hand played itself. the guys call with AQ is a bad one, but not uncommon in these comps. I dont think he's put me on a hand. Im only likely to be reraiseing him there with AA,KK,QQ,AK especially as there were 3 biggish stacks between me and him. he still makes the loose call I want him to make.

nevermind, I'll pat myself on the back and get back out there Sunday I suppose.

Adam, I'm not sure what you want me to say. I tried to take the time out to answer the question in the title of the thread as best as I could. If you don't like the advice then fair enough, but it must be worth considering at least. Apologies if it is blunt, but I'm just trying to help the best I can.

I don't see the point in just saying, 'Yes, you are very unlucky. There, there, it'll all be okay next time'. Players who always concern themselves with the bad luck are always going to find this game an uphill struggle. I recall around bubble time once you moving in on my big blind. I knew you had a hand, you knew I had rags, but I could tell that you wanted me to fold because you were scared of bubbling. In my opinion you should want a call as you have the superior hand, possibly dominating, and want some chips for the final. My advice still stands, stop worrying about the outdraws, ie, resist the temptation to moan about them, and free yourself from the fear of being an unlucky player. It happens, simple as, and once you get used to that fact, you'll find yourself more at ease with your game. I promise it's a lot easier to win comps when you're less tense.