whats a guy got to do to win a game of poker???

[ifm]

I was just trying to point you back to a more balanced view of these things Adam, if you recall your outdraws you might see a sense of justice overall and maybe not dwell so much on the negative side.
I am VERY philosophical when it comes to badbeats because i have inflicted some absolute corkers on some (not as bad as the ones Dan has inflicted on me mind).

I shall be there tomorrow for sure Dan and i shall be hoping and praying to have the good fortune pleasure of your company on my table mate 

[AdamM]

I'm afraid I dont believe in there being any balance to it. there's no 'law of averages' and no Karma, fate, justice or fairness involved. if my last 9 pairs of aces held up, my 10th is no more less likely to win.

[dan]

I was just trying to point you back to a more balanced view of these things Adam, if you recall your outdraws you might see a sense of justice overall and maybe not dwell so much on the negative side.
I am VERY philosophical when it comes to badbeats because i have inflicted some absolute corkers on some (not as bad as the ones Dan has inflicted on me mind).
I shall be there tomorrow for sure Dan and i shall be hoping and praying to have the good fortune pleasure of your company on my table mate 

the last hand of poker i played with you i raised a small part of my stack and you called all in  i thought my AQ might be no good and i was right you turned over that well know monster  i was still shaking when the flop came A high  .

i too shall hope for your company the table.( if dani versace reads this there is a drink in it for you if you can fix it ) dani just let me know beforehand and i wont bother to bring any rebuy money

[NoflopsHomer]

Any time I suffer a bad beat I remember the two times in two days when I had set over set and rivered quads both times.

[tikay]

Ifm - win that seat man. I can't wait to bust you. PLEASE be on my table!

Seriously it'd be fun if you were there Saturday, loads of blondes lined up, Jen & snoops, Red, Old Karabiner, Chunky Mick, etc, & it's a lovely comp. 425 are lined up, so go win that seat, all you blondes.

xx

[tikay]

I was just trying to point you back to a more balanced view of these things Adam, if you recall your outdraws you might see a sense of justice overall and maybe not dwell so much on the negative side.
I am VERY philosophical when it comes to badbeats because i have inflicted some absolute corkers on some (not as bad as the ones Dan has inflicted on me mind).
I shall be there tomorrow for sure Dan and i shall be hoping and praying to have the good fortune pleasure of your company on my table mate 

the last hand of poker i played with you i raised a small part of my stack and you called all in  i thought my AQ might be no good and i was right you turned over that well know monster  i was still shaking when the flop came A high  .

i too shall hope for your company the table.( if dani versace reads this there is a drink in it for you if you can fix it ) dani just let me know beforehand and i wont bother to bring any rebuy money

I have already fixed it with Dani, I want ifm to my immediate right, jen to his right, then sloppy, then Red. Easy money.

[matt674]

I'm afraid I dont believe in there being any balance to it. there's no 'law of averages' and no Karma, fate, justice or fairness involved. if my last 9 pairs of aces held up, my 10th is no more less likely to win.

But the same "law of averages" says that if you get AA three times and come up against KK on all three occasions and your tournament life is either on the line or you would be severly crippled if you lost, then nearly 50% of the time your tournament would be ending early.

Chances of AA winning vs KK = 80%

0.8x0.8x0.8=0.514

Therefore if you walk AA into KK three times you will be out of the tourney half the time - sure it looks like a terrible beat but if you analyze it properly your tournament exit is more likely to happen than you think.

Of course its unlikely that it will be AA vs KK three times but you can substitute any overpair vs underpair and if you are a tight solid player then this is more likely to happen in any tournament you play.

[AdamM]

Therefore if you walk AA into KK three times you will be out of the tourney half the time

thats what I'm saying, no you wont.
300,000 times maybe you get close to half

[Rod Paradise]

Don't let monkeys near calculators....

Matt I think you've misread that one. The calculation you've done shows the chance of winning all 3 hands with the AA.

ie one hand you've an 80% chance of winning.
2 hands the chance of winning both is 64%
3 hands it's 51%
etc

The problem is staistical variance - a sample of 3, the variance is huge, 300,000 you should be pretty close to 240,000 - the original 80%

[matt674]

Don't let monkeys near calculators....

Matt I think you've misread that one. The calculation you've done shows the chance of winning all 3 hands with the AA.

ie one hand you've an 80% chance of winning.
2 hands the chance of winning both is 64%
3 hands it's 51%
etc

If you reread my post i say "if your tournament life is on the line or if you would be severly crippled if you lost". By that i mean that you have to win all 3 times to stay in the tournament.

I made the following quote on a thread titled "torni" on the internet poker section about 5 months back

"The simple fact of the matter is that being all in is a risky proposition, and risk is what you want to avoid in tournaments until you absolutely have to face it. This is why racing early in a tournament is just plain foolish, and yet bad players do it constantly.

Whenever you are all in and not holding the absolute nuts with no cards to come, there is a chance you can get eliminated. Add up those small chances to get eliminated over the course of the tourney and it proves that it is very likely you will be eliminated somwhere."

[jammer]

Therefore if you walk AA into KK three times you will be out of the tourney half the time

thats what I'm saying, no you wont.
300,000 times maybe you get close to half

wuh? The point is expectation. If I play AA v KK enough I know at somepoint I'm going to lose, and it won't be that infrequent. So when it does happen, its annoying, but not unexpected. I certainly don't need 300,000 runs at it.

Look what happens, well it just happens. There is no point even considering it. So obviously the 'law of averages' is nonsense, and probability theory is merely about getting a rein on expectation for the future so one can put things into perspective.

Considering 'Luck' is simply a case of incorrectly marrying the two viewpoints.

[jammer]

Therefore if you walk AA into KK three times you will be out of the tourney half the time - sure it looks like a terrible beat but if you analyze it properly your tournament exit is more likely to happen than you think.

I think this is a cracking point and what most players (including myself) get completely wrong.

The pain is gonna come. Statistically that loss against the odds is going to happen. The trick is to have enough chips that you're not knocked out. If your a predictable, tight, straight down the line 'I'm only gonna play when I'm ahead' type of player, how often are you going to have that many chips to absorb it? This is what I'm personally trying to address in my game at the moment and maybe its worth considering too Adam.

[Rod Paradise]

Don't let monkeys near calculators....

Matt I think you've misread that one. The calculation you've done shows the chance of winning all 3 hands with the AA.

ie one hand you've an 80% chance of winning.
2 hands the chance of winning both is 64%
3 hands it's 51%
etc

If you reread my post i say "if your tournament life is on the line or if you would be severly crippled if you lost". By that i mean that you have to win all 3 times to stay in the tournament.

I made the following quote on a thread titled "torni" on the internet poker section about 5 months back

"The simple fact of the matter is that being all in is a risky proposition, and risk is what you want to avoid in tournaments until you absolutely have to face it. This is why racing early in a tournament is just plain foolish, and yet bad players do it constantly.

Whenever you are all in and not holding the absolute nuts with no cards to come, there is a chance you can get eliminated. Add up those small chances to get eliminated over the course of the tourney and it proves that it is very likely you will be eliminated somwhere."

AH - now I get it. I'll go away quietly now, chastened.

[matt674]

LOL, no need squire - your first quote that you shouldnt let monkeys near calculators is actually a very valid one. It also stretches further to all items of an electronic nature as well!! 

[AdamM]

course it happens, and we know roughly how many times AA wil beat KK over all, but what I'm saying is if you're in that situation two or three times in a night what happened the previous times has no direct baring on what happens next time. If I get AA 3 times in a night and the all hold up against under pairs that doesn't make me 'lucky' they are singular events and as the cards have no memory, I remain 80% when the chips go in. The law of averages as most people talk about it and the application of actual statistic arent the same thing. if AA comes up against KK 5 times the 'law' says it'll be 4-1 to the aces. thats obviously not true. (sound of people with too much time on their hands reaching for cards)

Anyway as I said, I'm not complaining about the beats, I just wanted to put down in writing a particularly trying series of hands and games.