Wow congrats Pat!

No reads yeah? Checking seems a bit weak. think like half lot or so would be good. If he is total unknown then QJ, QT, maybe even 85, JT. Like betting should show a profit IMO

Doesnt mean its the best line. xback might have a higher ev than betting.
If QJ/QT/JT might xr flop, might bet turn, might xc river, 88/55/j9 are v likely to take this exact line pre + flop + turn + river.
Nut spot for bluffing river and making villain hero fold, so I think its too thin.

imo.

dont like turn play given a) 3way vs your utg range hes not gna float that wide and b) u said u expected him to bluff a fair amount when we check so why not keeping his bluffing freq? i c/c turn and would prolly c/c this river unless he makes it obv sizing/live read that we have better.

as played, think his b/c'ing range is r polarized ott. so not much value from KQ, QJ. think he would fold AQ more often than call it in this spot. cant believe im abt to say that but i c/f. dont see what he could turn into a bluff. dont think he would value bet worse except for 98s, 79s thts about 2 combos.

lost a few bb's because of some French jinx i heard...

well youre in a tough spot because at 25-35bb effective stack sizes the momentum goes to the open raiser. main reasons are a) you cant really3b/fold as we risk a big chunk of our stack and b) we dont have good IO's to flat IP QTs, spr's are low if we want to make moves postflop we're instantly committed ect. so no leverage for us but plenty for him.
so usually we have to play very tight in such situations.

vs this guy whos seems a) splashy and b) not folding to aggression, just widen your value range. ATs becomes an easy 3b/call etc. and if hes that splashy were obviously flatting QQ+ pre ^^.

3b shoving 30bbs vs a 100% opening range is obv +ev but i think its too risky, plus theres always a chance a guy behinds wakes up with a hand and in such a case 30bbs are reallllly a big shove. better to wait and get paid off. you cannot always flop nothing ^^. plus, 30bbs is not that of a shallow stack (unless structure is really fast) so just be patient, play tight, talk to him and keep him as loose as he is .

I remember an online session back in the day - I was just coming to the end of my grind for the night, and only had one table left. I was UTG so this was going to be my last hand of the session.

I got dealt AA. And at the same time my baby started crying in the middle of the night. I moved the bet slider all the way to the right, went all-in for ~300bbs, then went settle to him before he woke the rest of the family up.

Didn't bother returning to see what happened, I just assumed everyone would have folded. But when I looked on HEM the next day it turned out the BB - a reg BTW - had called me with 77 and I'd won a 600bb pot.

He was outfoxed by a crying baby

genius.

OTR you have all the boats aside from T3 and prolly 88 in your range (you can actually have 88 prolly mind) so if he is reading the game well he shouldn't be bluffing here because it's perfectly reasonable you'll have a hand to call with, by the same logic, he shouldn't be value-betting a great deal worse because you can have a better hand.

given villains description/line up, this type of reasoning shouldnt be applied. well be taking really suboptimal lines for any game <200nl level imo and i assume this live game ~ 50nl at best.

i am definitely check/shoving the river. let villain bluff his busto draws (and there is a lot of them : hearts, kj, kq) and he could bet/calls hands he might just call a lead (QJ, Tx). dont think we loose too much value by him checking back 9x and 8x.

what are stack sizes btw? does he have you covered?
anyway theres no room for b/f'ing i think: theres too many busted draws, he could be value raising worse like QJ (v rarely overplay ingTx) and the range that has us beat is pretty narrow like 10ish combos - mite even be narrower if villain raises top2 and sets on the flop.

also, in such a game i am not opening 55- from EP. i limp/call them.

preflop is fine.
i 3b jam the flop w/o stats. if guy is aggro i like letting him bluff and take same b/c line.

as played i think i c/shove the river: think he bets the hands hes gna call a bet with (except for 9x) and he rarely cback turn a better hand than us (i wouldnt be surprise to see JJ/QQ or a AT hand in this spot).

changed my mind. id b/c we have some IOs.
i fold vs river shoves unimproved.

meeeh fold.

flop spr's would be about 2ish otf so dont like calling. speshly vs 2 good players + not abs position even with such a pretty hand.
raise/fold is not really possible unless you cib + he thenbluff jams close to never.
raise/call and jamming are the most meeeeh options. if we make it 350 he jams wed need 30% i guess James could be bluffing sooometimes.
jamming needs to work around half of the time.
but those 2 are thin plays anyway if ever +ev.
i like folding best.

fold > jam > raise/call > raise/fold > call.

Imagine we jam flop:
we call x = % of the time we need to win the hand
x*(170+360) + (1-x)*(10%*3200-90%*360) > 0
works out : x>0.7%.
(this seems ridic low mb did sth wrong.)
so not going anywhere in the jackpot scenario. think jamming is more fun and protection seems to be relevant in this spot.

if no jackpot id call flop vs this sizing and turn sould read mode on for blank turns. would prolly find a fold most of the time tho.

its a value bet i like betting >800.
i dont think we induce a lot of bluffs if we bet small. also, this is a spot where well prolly turn some hands into a bluff and his river checking range should be fairly elastic.
prolly find a fold if he c/jams.

wrt flop play: depends on your flop agenda. think both are fine i prefer calling vs him tho.