[Free Bet Debate]

Free Bet Debate

I just want to keep this all together, whilst it is up for debate.

So far, there have been 4 views expressed, as follows....

FOR

Simon Galloway

Tighty

AGAINST

Camel

Novelty Bet Specialist Chompy

think a seperate thread would be better

i agree. would like seperation for easier tracking

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

Dont you pay commission on betfair?which is why the price seems a little better.
without the backup of money back or freebet isn't this the ice cream betting camel referred to, just backing enormous favourites?

[That would be going back to ice cream punting.]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

Agreed
interesting reading it would make.
ooo went all Yoda then

[Yes]

Hills, Ladbrokes doing the same again at Haydock.  I know we had a bad day yesterday, but we shouldn't let that stop us.

In the circumstances the 4.05 is apt.

4.05 £25 win Intansigent 9/4 Hills or Laddies.
3.35 Venue 6/5 Hills
3.00 Rogue Wave 6/4 Hills
2.00 Snow Sky 4/6 Hills

Forgive me as i do not fully understand.

Do we take into account the times the favourites don't come 1st or 2nd and we lose £25 ?
Yes
Also what are the free bets used for ? any bet or horses only. Obviously there is no guarantee the free bet will win any money.
Anything, and obviously there are no guarantees.  You are going to get some long losing runs backing 8/1 chances
Has it been worked out if this system actually make money?
Well there aren't any guarantees, sods law often come into play on TfT

I did do some maths back in the day  http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1794039#msg1794039.
 

So in a way this is like betting with training wheels.
little risk
minor reward
with an outside chance of a score?

[That would be going back to ice cream punting.]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

[so according to that table we have bet £525 with a return of £77.50 with only 2 free bets left.]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26

i started the free bets tab at the end of June

Since then we have had 22 free bets

Winner 1

Money Back 1

Lose 14

To Run 4

To Place 2

This is quite a small sample size, of mostly free bets when horses have finished second and the free bet goes on at 8-1+ prices. You only need a couple of winners from these to balance the numbers up

An earlier free bet that won was Swann Ashes wickets for £132 for example


One thing that is occasionally a struggle is the time limit on the free bets, often 7 days, and finding something suitable

so according to that table we have bet £525 with a return of £77.50 with only 2 free bets left.
i assume the swann bet was prior ?

You need to include the returns of the initial bets which earned the Free Bets. .

ah ok.
obv on the face of it they don't look like a good idea,but i bow to the maths wizz that is Doobs.
bit beyond me tbh.
im trying though
thats what my mother used to say

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

confirmed cornetto

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=26

i started the free bets tab at the end of June

Since then we have had 22 free bets

Winner 1

Money Back 1

Lose 14

To Run 4

To Place 2

This is quite a small sample size, of mostly free bets when horses have finished second and the free bet goes on at 8-1+ prices. You only need a couple of winners from these to balance the numbers up

An earlier free bet that won was Swann Ashes wickets for £132 for example


One thing that is occasionally a struggle is the time limit on the free bets, often 7 days, and finding something suitable

so according to that table we have bet £525 with a return of £77.50 with only 2 free bets left.

i assume the swann bet was prior ?

Ah thanks guys.
just hard for the uninitiated to get their head around.
#learningallthetime

Hills, Ladbrokes doing the same again at Haydock.  I know we had a bad day yesterday, but we shouldn't let that stop us.

In the circumstances the 4.05 is apt.

4.05 £25 win Intansigent 9/4 Hills or Laddies.
3.35 Venue 6/5 Hills
3.00 Rogue Wave 6/4 Hills
2.00 Snow Sky 4/6 Hills

Forgive me as i do not fully understand.
Do we take into account the times the favourites don't come 1st or 2nd and we lose £25 ?
Also what are the free bets used for ? any bet or horses only. Obviously there is no guarantee the free bet will win any money.
Has it been worked out if this system actually make money?

[ON]

Wahhabi £25 in next at Goodwood.  Hills or Laddies mobile 13/8

Done, thanks Doobs.

£25 @ 13/8, Wm Hill Mobile,  (Guaranteed Price) Wahaab, 3.30 Goodwood. Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd

ON

03 Sep 13 / 15:21

Stake

3:30 Goodwood – Wahaab @ Guaranteed Price (13/8)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000593/F

dare i go for a hat trick?

oh my.

what a start,ty mr badbeat

[ON]

Been through all the maidens today. Most look very uncompetitive.

 The 3.15 at Musselburgh has a decent enough favourite in Gaspard. It was 6/4 but now it's closer to evens. I actually think it should be shorter and I wouldn't put anybody doing my each-way bet from also betting the jolly.

 I've put an immediate line through 1,3,8 and 9 which leaves us four other runners.

 Hanalei Bay is up in trip to 7f after running 6f last time. It looked like it may not have stayed 7f at Thirsk two runs ago and now they have the blinkers on for the first time, which I hate. Horrible stable, line through it.

 Mowhoob is a possible. Didn't stay 1m last time and now down to a better trip. Failed to win in 13 starts and less scope than the shorter price ones. Wouldn't be a terrible each-way at 12/1.

 Favourite Treat is a first time out Johnstone. No market support but it cost a lot and the stable won the race last year. Probably won't win, not a great each-way bet.

 That leaves us with Mishaal. Just the sort of thing I want for a job like this. Has place form over 7f, didn't really run well on the all-weather last time but on previous form it's very solid. Hard to see it being worse than 4th ever, most likely finish 2nd or 3rd with a good winning chence. Free going, be up there from the start and hopefully HB blows out early and maybe FT is not a big trier and we're left to fight with the favourite for a win.

 £100 each-way at 11/2 with VC or Sportingbet. Would happily take 5/1 (I already have) and would actually take 9/2 without being too upset.

Thanks Neil.

Caught me at a bad time, & I've only just seen it. Oddly, the price remains available, & so.......

Gulp......

£100 EW @ 11/2, (one fifth, 1,2,3) BetVictor, MISHAAL, 3.15 Musselburgh


ON

 15:15MISHAAL (EW)(Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 11/2 Stake: 200.00Possible Return:  860.00

on as well

good luck us

Welcome to Fred Mr Dogg. Not related to Snoop, I assume?

Long-time lurker? How did you hear about us?

Not being nosey, but we like a bit of intimacy here, get to know each other.

Steer cleer of anything Chompy puts up though, right?

Thank you Tikay.

funny you should mention mr Snoop, but alas no this Dogg runs alone.

yes long time lurker,purely a rec just tipping the toe so to speak.

i have heard of the lord chompy but i should be ok as reality tv is not my bag,mainly horses and footie,might gather my girdle and put something up one day but you guys seem to know your stuff might just scoot along with you if thats ok.

[ON]

Small beer, but Martian 6/4 Hills 2.20 at Goodwood £25 on the mobile.  

Sorry, bit rushed. Note we have 7/4 (Guaranteed) not 6/4.

£25 @ 7/4, MARTIAN, Wm Hill Mobile, Money Back as Free Bet if 2nd

ON


03 Sep 13 / 14:17

Stake

2:20 Goodwood – Martian @ Guaranteed Price (7/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000591/F

WINNER!

Well done Doobs.

Hacked up, very nice.

Now for the BIG one.......

thanks doobs A+

[ON]

Been through all the maidens today. Most look very uncompetitive.

 The 3.15 at Musselburgh has a decent enough favourite in Gaspard. It was 6/4 but now it's closer to evens. I actually think it should be shorter and I wouldn't put anybody doing my each-way bet from also betting the jolly.

 I've put an immediate line through 1,3,8 and 9 which leaves us four other runners.

 Hanalei Bay is up in trip to 7f after running 6f last time. It looked like it may not have stayed 7f at Thirsk two runs ago and now they have the blinkers on for the first time, which I hate. Horrible stable, line through it.

 Mowhoob is a possible. Didn't stay 1m last time and now down to a better trip. Failed to win in 13 starts and less scope than the shorter price ones. Wouldn't be a terrible each-way at 12/1.

 Favourite Treat is a first time out Johnstone. No market support but it cost a lot and the stable won the race last year. Probably won't win, not a great each-way bet.

 That leaves us with Mishaal. Just the sort of thing I want for a job like this. Has place form over 7f, didn't really run well on the all-weather last time but on previous form it's very solid. Hard to see it being worse than 4th ever, most likely finish 2nd or 3rd with a good winning chence. Free going, be up there from the start and hopefully HB blows out early and maybe FT is not a big trier and we're left to fight with the favourite for a win.

 £100 each-way at 11/2 with VC or Sportingbet. Would happily take 5/1 (I already have) and would actually take 9/2 without being too upset.

Thanks Neil.

Caught me at a bad time, & I've only just seen it. Oddly, the price remains available, & so.......

Gulp......

£100 EW @ 11/2, (one fifth, 1,2,3) BetVictor, MISHAAL, 3.15 Musselburgh


ON

 15:15MISHAAL (EW)(Horse Racing Outright)Odds: 11/2 Stake: 200.00Possible Return:  860.00

on as well

good luck us