Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

If the Betfair price is within a few ticks of the price taken, we don't need to look at results, these bets are massively +ev (some more massive than others obv)

Let's not be results orientated.

That would be going back to ice cream punting.

I shall take that as confirmation that I am no longer an ice-cream.

Mr A J Kendall, Retired Ice Cream

Here to take over the helm of the good ship Magnum

even though we know its a great offer proven by doobs, elders and spiders etc

no harm in looking at the results as a whole so far to see how fred is doing with it as it stands as it does take up a large part of the action lately and how the free bets part is going

its not a criticism of fred , being results orientated or a stick to bash up doobs calculator just interesting i think

You can just take the free money if you are king nit.

Bet the horse and then lay it on Betfair for a tiny loss and cheer it to come second.

Assuming a £2 loss on each bet, you'll need one out of 12 to come second to show a profit.

Which is < 1% chance I suggest.

[Ironside]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

[VDogg]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

Dont you pay commission on betfair?which is why the price seems a little better.
without the backup of money back or freebet isn't this the ice cream betting camel referred to, just backing enormous favourites?

[TheDazzler]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

Fred is on Wenger Mancini's men to finish in the top three, so this would be compromising the bet.

Value is value?

Exactly correct. Value is value.
If a bet is value it doesn't matter what bets you had preceding it. This very simple principle has been explained umpteen times on this thread.
Excellent spot Ant.

With regards to this Tottenham are 2.05 vs Liverpool. More value than the Arsenal bet?

Do you not bet with Betway Tikay?

Are we doing these bets? Both look good value to me.

[The Camel]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

In a word no.

Doobs will correct me if I'm wrong, but they aren't tips as such.

They are just mathematically +ev wagers, which are only +ev if you are getting your money back if they come second.

[TightEnd]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

Dont you pay commission on betfair?which is why the price seems a little better.
without the backup of money back or freebet isn't this the ice cream betting camel referred to, just backing enormous favourites?

Exactly

Need the free bet part to create the EV

edit: TheCamel beat me to it

[JoeBeevers]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

Fred is on Wenger Mancini's men to finish in the top three, so this would be compromising the bet.

Value is value?

Or press the position and take 4/5 Arsenal with B365? I think 4/5 is value too.

[JoeBeevers]

Rep of Ireland Asian Handicap 0 (draw no bet), at evens against Sweden at home on Friday night.

Ireland have only lost twice in their last 26 qualifying games from the start of the 2010 world cup qualifiers under Trappatoni, with a squad that doesn't scream much of brilliance, but together as a force in qualifying they are a solid unit. And I think from the 2012 embarrassment in the finals we have actually improved our starting line up, namely now including Coleman and he has proved to be a great asset, with McClean and McCarthy of Everton, offering something too on the wing and down the middle.

I think where my confidence lies here in this bet is that I can't see Ireland losing with the defensive nature Trappatoni lines his teams up and I think we are likely to win, because we were well deserved for the draw at their ground in March with this team:
 
   01 Forde
    02 Coleman
    04 O'Shea
    14 Wilson
    15 Clark
    08 McCarthy
    11 McClean (Keogh - 83' )
    21 Green
    09 Long (Sammon - 87' )
    10 Keane (Hoolahan - 76' )
    13 Walters

We were great at hitting the wings and getting a lot of crosses in with Coleman and McClean having great games but it has to be said the chances were minimal to say the least for both teams, it ended 0-0 and if we were a little bit more clever with the best chance we had we could have taken all three points. With the added home advantage, I see the value in the bet because I think Ireland are being under-represented. I think it is wrong Sweden are on par with Ireland at 17/10 ish for the outrights, and it has to be said Ireland should be much bigger favourites here.

The way the league is poised at the moment sees Germany as runaway leaders, and Austria, Ireland and Sweden all on the same points and Ireland in the race for second place, we need to play Austria again too with Sweden needing to play Austria one more time also, so it is a game of chess here. But we play Austria away for our crunch game with them, so the emphasis here is definitely on us going for the win against Sweden, which is exciting as when we counter more, Ireland are always dangerous, after soaking up lots of pressure and placing so many men behind the ball.

Evens seems a decent bet here for a draw no bet, but I can only see the best odds shown for Ireland 0 in the handicaps (same thing). The huge necessity on Ireland needing at least a draw for us to have any chance of qualification here should see this bet being safe enough. We were unlucky not to beat Austria at home with them equalising in the last minute for a 2-2 draw.

Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/draw-no-bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/republic-of-ireland-v-sweden/asian-handicap

Can you guys help me with this one?

Ant put a lot of work into it, thanks Palace Bloke, & I don't want to ignore it. I was busy elsewhere yesterdsay, so can't quite see what was decided - think we were a shade negative?

Helpful Hint to Ant - when sticking these up, try & avoid referring to one Team as "we". I have a sort of default mental block which puts a discount to the value of punting on "homer" bets, if you get my drift. As in, say, if you were to suggest a bet on Palace, I would largely discount it. Not always correctly, of course, but it's like a football managers eyes - they only sees what they want to see, & don't see it as objectively as piure neutrals.

Well its Palace and Ireland I have an affinity to, so may as well continue to use we for those!

I can't see Sweden winning. As Tighty and others pointed out the draw is value as Ireland play so negatively, but I think they need the win to have any chance of qualification. So draw no bet of evens or the double chance Ireland/draw for 1/2. I wouldn't recommend the draw myself only because of the onus on Ireland probably needing all three points here.

BMU now 11/10 (nb evens) on this which makes it more attractive.

[Ironside]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

In a word no.

Doobs will correct me if I'm wrong, but they aren't tips as such.

They are just mathematically +ev wagers, which are only +ev if you are getting your money back if they come second.

so if i am getting 7/4 on a 5/4 (minus 5%) am i not getting value?

[Ironside]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

Dont you pay commission on betfair?which is why the price seems a little better.
without the backup of money back or freebet isn't this the ice cream betting camel referred to, just backing enormous favourites?

Exactly

Need the free bet part to create the EV

edit: TheCamel beat me to it

i thought the value in the free bet was small even when backing a long shot so getting the bigger price gives me very similiar value

[DungBeetle]

NFL question - do the teams change their strips each year?   They always seem to look the same to me, but perhaps I don't notice subtle differences.

[DungBeetle]

And if they don't change their shirts, surely this is a massive revenue stream they are missing?  Same question for basketball/baseball.

[TightEnd]

venue came in i had backed it on betfair at 2.38 along with the horse in the 14:00 (i forget its name)

slight profit fot me only backing them if i can get a much better price than doobs is listing them at too make up for the fact i dont get money back

Dont you pay commission on betfair?which is why the price seems a little better.
without the backup of money back or freebet isn't this the ice cream betting camel referred to, just backing enormous favourites?

Exactly

Need the free bet part to create the EV

edit: TheCamel beat me to it

i thought the value in the free bet was small even when backing a long shot so getting the bigger price gives me very similiar value

coirrect me if I am wrong though but Doobs isn't tipping the horse, he's tipping the EV. Pretty sure blanket betting faves in a UK Horse racing year loses 7% or so

[TightEnd]

And if they don't change their shirts, surely this is a massive revenue stream they are missing?  Same question for basketball/baseball.

NFL and baseball

Subtle changes most years, throwback uniforms were also a huge revenue spinner

Merch for NFL teams is massive, particularly because fans want the name and number of the star player on their jerseys. We know that star players are drafted every year, cue a new set of jerseys to be bought

Manning 18 in the last 2 years at the Broncos has been a huge earner

[tikay]

Tis with Betway so you may not be getting on Tikay but it is for the rest of you who are. Seems they are way ool with offering 8/5 on Tottenham for the Tournament match betting against Arsenal for the season. Next best price is evens with Bet365.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/season-match-bets/arsenal-v-tottenham/tournament-match-betting

Fred is on Wenger Mancini's men to finish in the top three, so this would be compromising the bet.

Value is value?

Exactly correct. Value is value.
If a bet is value it doesn't matter what bets you had preceding it. This very simple principle has been explained umpteen times on this thread.
Excellent spot Ant.

With regards to this Tottenham are 2.05 vs Liverpool. More value than the Arsenal bet?

Do you not bet with Betway Tikay?

Are we doing these bets? Both look good value to me.

Am a bit behind with stuff, but yes, we probably will.

I have no idea why, but I was averse to opening a Betway Account, as I'm a bit suspicious of Gaming Companies I am not familiar with.

So I researched them this morning, (see link below) & my mental block has been removed. Or at least, that particular one has.

Bear with me please.



http://www.thebetwaygroup.com/