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Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Live 50/1 spot: Getting the max/line check
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on: June 20, 2012, 09:16:37 PM
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Zerofive
Perhaps your original suggestion of jamming would be one of the least profitable lines given the OP. You have been offered SP odds to chase your flush to the river from rbc_mike and it would appear to a noob that you took that line, as 5X otb then to limp a 3bet w/ position looks like a preflop standard from a 4+ thinker with AcXc/XcXc . However, No rlly decent player would believe you have AcXc/XcXc here and that your jambluffing the river often enough to keep you honest which makes you right, you look stone nutted. Because you are giving credit to rbc_mike as a good player with a similair style to you, and he you, he must adopt elements of game theory within his playing style and expect you to do the same. Which means you need to find yourself value bet sized bluffing this situation with AcXc/XcXc at the river after he checks to you at least occasionally to keep him guessing, as he would be calling the correct % of times for a nullEV. so I would take a standard £40-£60 river bet which doesn't looked nutted here, but does look like a valuebet sized bluff with AcXc/XcXc. your getting paid off by rbc_mike when he holds AX TT JJ QQ. Where as if you make it £60-£100 I don't feel he's calling with Ax. Long term it appears to me that not looking greedy here keeps you AK hidden to a decent £ showdown.
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