Bottom Set

[boldie]

Can someone pls explain to me the need for the push. Aren't you chasing out the hands you're ahead of here. Can't you call (i would check-raise the river i thought he would definitely bet. His in raise makes me think he could be at it here and will bet river) or bet the river.

yeah...I might not have pushed here. i would take the guy for 2 pair and probably have done all my cash in but I hardly ever push with a set on the turn

[totalise]

Can someone pls explain to me the need for the push. Aren't you chasing out the hands you're ahead of here. Can't you call (i would check-raise the river i thought he would definitely bet. His in raise makes me think he could be at it here and will bet river) or bet the river.

not really, because the hands you are ahead of are hands that you dont want to let see a cheap river, be it a draw where they overtake you, or a made hand that sees a scare card on the river and suddenly doesn't want to stick his stack in. When someone min-raises the turn its generally an indication that they are a) happy to get all their money in the middle now, and with a set at this level you are going to be content to oblige... or b) a rediculous bluff that is tryin to steal cheaply by representing enormous strength that shuts down on the river if they are called on the turn.

[SupaMonkey]

Fair enough, i agree. I suppose you are scared of  (you have 66% equity),  (66% equity) and  (70% equity) (i think these are the only hands he could realistically have). I don't play cash, but in tourneys the min raise and bluff if it is checked to you on the next street move is quite common.

I make it $30 in the pot with $34.60 left to bet.

.66 * $34.60 = $22.84 (the amount you win if you get the rest of his chips on the river and assuming that if you push now he will fold these hands)
.34 * $64.60 = $21.96 (the amount you lose if he outdraws you)

I guess you have to push though because you can't be sure that he is going to bluff (and you are going to get your stack in) on the river. Hence, the top figure will be lower.

ps. have i done those calculations right/ do you agree with my reasoning, i have made a fair number of assumptions.

[kinboshi]

I would push in a heartbeat.  You've hit what you hoped to hit, and you can't second guess if he's holding 88 or not.  Most of the time he'd be holding Ax, ideally AQ.

You hit the set to infrequently to worry about an over set.  When it happens, take the hit and move on. 

Well that's what I do - I'm probably wrong...

[snoopy1239]

Smells like Pocket Eights to me, but you can't fold. Set over set is just one of those things, plus it's too easy for him to have an Ace, especially A-8.

Having said that however, I can understand why someone might consider folding. Queens, Aces and A-Q are very unlikely due to the lack of a pre-flop raise, I can't see him calling pre-flop with Q-8 or Q-3, he'd play a flush draw differently and a bluff would come in the form of a bigger re-raise.

[snoopy1239]

Ok, unlucky, but I am not fan of limping with 33 from such a early position.  If re-raised are you going to fold?

You are counting to get a set which you are 8/1 underdog.  Limping from such an early position you can get yourself into all sorts of trouble, also you are inviting others to limp with all sort of holdings. This has not relation perhaps to this particular situation but overall you are out of position with easily dominated hand on the low limit tble where anything can happen.

I disagree with this. You need to take into account implied odds. It's a +ve move as long as you release if you miss the flop.

[snoopy1239]

I don't dispute that set mining is not profitable, but from E.P I am not so keen on that myself with 22-44 pairs, unless i get a feel of the table.  But  my opinion here is not as valid, as i only started to play cash games few weeks ago, and mainly short handed, so different rules apply there, 33 for me there is a raising hand.

I don't see why you want to raise with 3-3 in early position. Unless you hit a set, which you yourself said was ulikely, you are just setting yourself up for a difficult deicision, one that even if you do get right will only win you what's in the pot at the Flop, unless, of course, you fancy taking a second out of position pop on the Turn.

The key to pocket pairs is seeing a multi-way flop and hitting a set. Even better, calling a raise and having an overpair pay you off if you hit. Those implied odds alone make it worth calling.