Turn flush draw spot

[doubleup]

We just need oppo to not have a big hand himself.

You need villain to have complete air as he will call hero's push very light.

[EvilPie]

We just need oppo to not have a big hand himself.

You need villain to have complete air as he will call hero's push very light.

That's why it's a semi bluff.

Based on oppos stats and his nice stack I think that air makes up a lot of his range here.

If he's got something he can call with then we have outs.

I think he's passing a lot that beats us in this spot.

[doubleup]

Based on oppos stats and his nice stack I think that air makes up a lot of his range here.

villain is fairly tag

Postflop Analysis with a board of 

All cards    Total Combos = 161

AA - 55, AKs - A6s, AKo - A9o, KQs, KQo - KJo, QJs,
JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s,

 *  Top Pair   Combos = 57/161    Percent =35.4%
 AQs - A6s,
 AQo - A9o,

 *  Two Pair   Combos = 9/161    Percent =5.59%
 *  Trips/Set   Combos = 6/161    Percent =3.73%


He has something a lot of the time.  As I said it very much depends on what he thinks of hero and if he is bluffing what he expects hero to fold.

[dousche]

ok, so i was villain in this hand and i had A7o.

hero called the turn and checked a brick on the river.

after the hand i wondered whether id left myself too open to a bluffshove on the turn/river.

thoughts on my (villains) line?

fwiw i was playing laggier than those stats suggest (those were stats available to hero after he joined the table up to that hand) so may have shown down slightly weaker holdings than they suggest.

[AlexMartin]

shoving aint great. u rep 33.

[EvilPie]

Now it's all spun round I'm too confused to say anything.

Alex. If shoving reps 33 (which I can't see how it does) why is shoving bad?

[AlexMartin]

Now it's all spun round I'm too confused to say anything.

Alex. If shoving reps 33 (which I can't see how it does) why is shoving bad?

give urself more hands to rep which u would* play at nut strength



* assuming no levelling/history

[doubleup]

Q-high through 8-high,

Thats about 10% of villains range on this board given the info that indicates he is a tag opening from MP.

[George2Loose]

All this analysis is making my head hurt.

As some of my learned live friends would say:

What's sort of flop are looking for with 10h9h? I can't pass now can I? ALL IN!

[EvilPie]

All this analysis is making my head hurt.

As some of my learned live friends would say:

What's sort of flop are looking for with 10h9h? I can't pass now can I? ALL IN!

This is exactly what I thought but I wanted to look at least a bit clever by talking about fold equity and all that crap.

[WellChief]

Turn check-raise is very bad, think how unbalanced you will be in this spot.  Always bet-bet-bet these boards for value and with bluffs, so much easier to balance, then again raising A7os from 2nd position makes this a lot more difficult.  You don't ever want to be check/raising the turn then scratching your head wondering what to do on river, always play the turn with a plan.

[doubleup]

Q-high through 8-high,

Thats about 10% of villains range on this board given the info that indicates he is a tag opening from MP.

That doesn't mean there is only a 10% chance of him having it tho. Conditional probability innit. If the condition is that he only plays that 10% of his range in this way then the chances that he has it are 100%. If he plays that 10% and another 10% this way then the chance he has Q-high thru 8-high is 50%. And so on. Only if he plays his entire range this way are the chances only 10%. An extreme example: A bot whose only ever action is to shove and who only ever does it with AA is in the big blind, it's folded round to you in the small, you raise with A3o and he shoves. What are the chances he has AA?

I did mean to ask you tho what program that output is from in your earlier post? Looks useful.

prog is from stoxpoker "stoxcombo1"

Bit pished atm - I just think this is an occams razor hand and if the preflop caller tries to get the money in he is repping a minute % of his range, similarly bluffs are a minute % of the preflop raisers range on that flop (and that he doesn't simply give up on the turn as caller so easily has Ax).  This isnt a J53 rainbow flop button vs light 3 bettor in sb, its a genuine raise in MP from a tag on a flop that tags tattoo on their girl's left buttock, so I just don't buy a bluff from either player.   (We arent talking 5000nl with leveling history just 2 bods playing a bit of low stakes poker)