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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand of the Week: 15th October
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Topic: Hand of the Week: 15th October (Read 8122 times)
AdamG
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 838
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #15 on:
October 16, 2007, 04:31:29 AM »
i'd be reraising pre flop to isolate our 'target' and let him overplay his weak made hands when/if he makes small pair. im glad to take the pot pre flop as enough in there and wouldnt sit tight and call here as its giving value to player 3 and we would be oop all hand, if no J comes, we dno where we are.
therefore i would reraise pre flop to $700 given that opener was 70, he can only call / shove here with a small range of hands and the loosey goosey can call with anything he wants cos if he flat calls i believe we're definately ahead, if raisy daisy, im willing to go AI pre vs loosey Goosey hoping for 2 overs AK AQ or 99 1010.
but as we have smooth called and got ourselves into a predicament - i would check raise the pot as im expecting button to continuation bet when both of us check to him, try keep pot small by checkin and swell it up when he c-bets, if sb reraises i would smooth call and reasses turn.
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Alias' >>> DeeohDoubleG - PokerStars adamg001/TrustinMe - DTD Garvey001 - FullTilt <<<
totalise
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2620
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #16 on:
October 17, 2007, 12:11:21 PM »
hi All, thanks for the responses so far
As you recall, the flop was
, and the loose player surprisingly checked.
Action was on us, and what I ultimately ended up doing was betting $400, h@ll called, and the SB folded
What kinda range are we putting H@ll on at this stage? Do the dynamics of the hand change because of what we both know about the SB? if so, how?
Turn comes
for a board of
and the pot is about $1,400 and our stack size remaining is about $3,300
Whats your line from here? given the way the hand has played, both preflop and on the flop, do you think we will show more profit if we are the aggressor or if we hand that over the h@ll?
Action, hero checked, and h@ll bet $800
Whats the plan for the rest of the hand?
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doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7126
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #17 on:
October 17, 2007, 01:17:47 PM »
I think he has some sort of made hand as he called your flop bet when the sb could have checkraised and he didn't seem worried about that. So I think he either has an overpair or a set (slight chance he had 2pr). With the overpair, if the sb crs and you call, he can fold as he can be reasonably sure he's beaten and if you fold, he gets the money in vs the sb. With the set he obv doesnt raise the flop.
So I'm going to fold as I dont think there are many hands that I'm beating (TT, a counterfeited 98) and I'm going to put my stack at risk with a call unless I fold on the river i.e. I'm putting in $800 in the hope that he checks the river and that must be bad play vs an agg player.
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Dubai
Hero Member
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Posts: 6016
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #18 on:
October 18, 2007, 01:58:42 AM »
Call turn, call river.
His range is massive but the 2 on the turn is a huge card. You lose to quads, 9 s full or 8 s full. Your hand is pretty face up which means Frederik will probably try to turn his T9s or 87s into a huge bluff so he bets the turns in situations like this planning on making a big bet on the river to rep the v small range that has u beat. If he has the exact hands that beat you, pay him. Longterm passing postflop here simply will give him too much leeway and he will run over you.
From reading your post im assuming you're putting Holl on a tighter range because the small blind is still behind him after strangely checking and obviously you know the results but if you are using this as a main source of "He must have a set" then its miles off longrun in my experiences with him and infact its situations like these where he tends to try and make big moves later in the hand. Obviously he can still flop a set like anyone can but his range is far from being polarised here and given what small part of his range beats you compared to what huge part of his range you crush, then its simply a case of call, call imo.
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2007, 02:05:51 AM by Dubai
»
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snoopy1239
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 33034
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #19 on:
October 18, 2007, 03:02:38 AM »
I agree with Dubai, the 2 is a huge card and you're only worried about a small range of hands. If he has the full house, then so be it. 9-8, J-9s, T-T are all feasible here. He could easily have a hand like J-Ts also. To be honest, one of the reasons I raise pre-flop is to avoid a tricky situation like this - out of position against a strong player like Hall.
I'm actually going to go out on a limb and guess he has
.
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2007, 03:04:14 AM by snoopy1239
»
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totalise
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2620
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #20 on:
October 19, 2007, 03:09:18 AM »
hi all, heres the next step in the hand.
After H@ll bets $800, hero decides to call.
This touches on something important with regards to turn/river play.....
given the fact that we called the turn... are we obligated to call pretty much any river? Obviously against a player that will frequently bet turns with no hand but will only bet the river with the nuts, its different, but in this spot, is our river decision decided on the turn, or does it depend on the texture of the river card?
River comes
for a board of
, pot is $3,000 and we have about $2,500 behind, action on hero
What range of hands does hall have now, can we bet and expect to get called by worse, or by checking turn/river are we turning our hand into a bluff catcher? or are we checking and folding to a river push? and ultimately, what do you do?
Action, hero checks, and H@ll goes allin which covers you, $2500 to call, pot $5,500
Action on hero, and this relates to the previous points...
are we calling or folding?
Reveal to come on Sunday
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doubleup
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7126
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #21 on:
October 19, 2007, 02:28:34 PM »
and H@ll goes allin - who'd have thunk it.
What to do? The problem here is that only you can really answer this. You have some idea, based on your previous encounters, what H@ll puts you on and can determine from that what his range is. e.g. Is there any chance that you would slowplay a set here? If so, his hand could be a set or a bluff with 98 (he knows here that you very likely have an overpair). I doubt that he would go allin with TT although he might with QQ. How would you have played AK? If it was me, I fear that my hand range would be obvious on the turn i.e an overpair, so if I had a history of folding to aggression, I might have to call. If I had a river-calling history, I might have to fold.
As far as the river card is concerned I would have preferred a card that H@££ should be worried about if my theory about him having a made hand is correct i.e. an ace or a nine or a str8 card.
This is obv a good hand for discussion and I would appreciate you letting us know why you called the flop bet when an AI was likely on the river and indeed your overall thoughts on the hand.
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snoopy1239
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 33034
Re: Hand of the Week: 15th October
«
Reply #22 on:
October 21, 2007, 06:35:21 PM »
Please click here to see what Hall had:
http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12834
Intriguing conclusion from totalise too.
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