EPT Steps-Bubble..Is this a time to fold Aces?

[mondatoo]

i'm not clued up enough on cetain aspects of maths in poker,

And Longy has kindly lifted the fog of you ignorance.  Irrespective of the OPs motive for postng the hand illustrates dramatically a hugely important concept in steps tournies.

Although it would seem that the op motive wasn't to moan at a bad beat, i don't see this as being irrespective since I and many others find it extremely annoying to look at the pha board just to read a couple of bad beats which is why i referred to the whinge thread since that's how this read to me.I understand maths in poker however don't have the software to work out that this is a -ev play in a steps format long term.

Maybe I and others could get some benefit out of this thread then if you or longy would like to go a bit further into the concept of playing steps and being shortstacked on the bubble,such as what is our raising range,what is our calling range to an all in but then if AA is -ev surely nothing is are we just folding with the intention of hoping the other short stack busto's.Thanks

[Longy]

Steps are actually are very good description for the laddering process of each individual level but the payout structure in each level.

In this case in a step 2 when we are 3 handed everyone has locked up another try for level 2 and the 3 players are all shooting for the same prize. There is no reward as long you finish in the top 2 whether you finish with 1 chip or 10000 chips. Therefore survival is key and therefore chip utility and not pot odds is a main concern.

So bearing in mind we are doing everything to stop ourselves finishing 3rd, when in this situation we have two all ins from players that cover us. We are going have to be damn sure that we will beat both players.


So if we do call we need this exact scenario to survive Hero > Beats both villians - 70% of the time

Or we could fold and let them tangle, where their ranges are probably a flip against each other, so button busts about 50% of the time. Or button beats sb and we still have about a 20% chance of getting in the top 2 with the chips we have left. So we finish in the top 2 about 70% of the time.

So in this very simplified model of the situation we achieve our goal 70% of the time in both scenarios, hence this is pretty close.

In reality calling sometimes doesn't bust the button and he may make a big comeback a small % of the time and on the plus side for folding that sb was actually ahead of button and busts him more than 50% of the time.

[AlexMartin]

 this is most deffo worthy of a pha thread imo. what is the answer?

[thetank]

Top thread.

[AndrewT]

I read about this convict in America who was in solitary confinement for years. This guy eventually made a whole chess set out of his own poo. Yeah, pretty funny, and probably objectional to some, but there was absolutely nothing to talk about right?

How did he make the white pieces?

[mondatoo]

[ ]I realised that both the other players were all in and not just the short stack
[X] I would rather admit that i'm a complete tool who didn't read the op properly and hadn't realised this till reading longy's post yesterday then a donk who couldn't see the benefits of folding AA in this spot
[X] I will now go and hide for a while till this thread is on page 5+ so i don't have to read it again lol
[X] I am a donk anyway
[X] I again apologise to you tinsel town,i just read the title of your thread should i fold aces and went to the end of the hand and only noticed you that you had lost to the 9 5
[X] Hope this made you laugh at my utter stupidity and just ignore any future posts i make on pha blonde i talk shit

That is all    

[X] I contemplated just deleting all this and leaving it to me just looking like an idiot
[X] I am an idiot
[X] Fuk it just press enter enjoy all  

[RioRodent]

I read about this convict in America who was in solitary confinement for years. This guy eventually made a whole chess set out of his own poo. Yeah, pretty funny, and probably objectional to some, but there was absolutely nothing to talk about right?

How did he make the white pieces?

Six weeks eating nothing but Vitalin Complete Dry Dog Food.

[RED-DOG]

  to everyone who contributed to this thread.

[MANTIS01]

I read about this convict in America who was in solitary confinement for years. This guy eventually made a whole chess set out of his own poo. Yeah, pretty funny, and probably objectional to some, but there was absolutely nothing to talk about right?

How did he make the white pieces?

I believe all the pieces were brown. While I suppose this may cause some practical problems when playing I would imagine that because the guy was a murderous fiend, locked in solitary, and had a chess set made of poo, potential opponents were hard to come by. However, I still think he should have experimented with dietry change just so the pieces looked purty.

[AlexMartin]

I read about this convict in America who was in solitary confinement for years. This guy eventually made a whole chess set out of his own poo. Yeah, pretty funny, and probably objectional to some, but there was absolutely nothing to talk about right?

How did he make the white pieces?

I believe all the pieces were brown. While I suppose this may cause some practical problems when playing I would imagine that because the guy was a murderous fiend, locked in solitary, and had a chess set made of poo, potential opponents were hard to come by. However, I still think he should have experimented with dietry change just so the pieces looked purty.

lol

[gatso]

[X] I will now go and hide for a while till this thread is on page 5+ so i don't have to read it again lol

[X] I am in the process of getting together a group of blondes who will take it in turns to bump this thread every time it's in danger of leaving the front page

[mondatoo]

[X] I will now go and hide for a while till this thread is on page 5+ so i don't have to read it again lol

[X] I am in the process of getting together a group of blondes who will take it in turns to bump this thread every time it's in danger of leaving the front page

 

[EvilPie]

Awaits "zomg i can't pass aces, fk the maths" posts.

I meseed about with ranges as well if you disagree with them it still comes out -ve.

Am I right in assuming that if ICM says that you should fold aces here then the ranges are completely irrelevant? We're ahead of every range except AA+.

If this is the case then on a steps bubble with 2 all ins when you are the short stack you should always fold.

Did you mess with the AA player stack size to see how short you need to be before it becomes +EV? That would be interesting to know.

[Longy]

Awaits "zomg i can't pass aces, fk the maths" posts.

I meseed about with ranges as well if you disagree with them it still comes out -ve.

Am I right in assuming that if ICM says that you should fold aces here then the ranges are completely irrelevant? We're ahead of every range except AA+.

If this is the case then on a steps bubble with 2 all ins when you are the short stack you should always fold.

Did you mess with the AA player stack size to see how short you need to be before it becomes +EV? That would be interesting to know.

Ranges are pretty much irrelevant, in fact the tighter ranges include ax hands which we have even more dominated than two random cards, so the wider their range the worse it is for us. Though the sb's range vs the button's range makes a difference as when we fold we want sb's equity in the hand to be good.

No this doesn't mean we should always fold with two all in's in front of us, stack sizes matter and if the stacks were shallower than they are here, it becomes a call.