I just think there could be better spots
you cant seriously think there are better spots than this??
Sure he can have a better flush, ofc he can. he can also have any set/two pair or 1p and
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dong anything else but stacking off given flop action leaves us open to some massive EV mistakes that you're better just stacking off. Dont see any advantage to peeling and raising turn as both ranges stand to loose equity on the turn.
Been mulling this for a while Dave and I really do think there are better spots in games like this. Alex may contradict me here but when you are deepish in these low stakes live cash games the bad players will make some pretty big errors but they are very rarely willing to stack off on flushing boards with anything less than a flush. It is almost as though they have a pathological phobia of flushes but are never, ever willing to fold a flush of their own no matter how small (unless the board is 4 to flush). If the game was £2-5+ (or even 25c-50c online) I would agree that there are enough bluffs, semi bluffs and 2 pair combos in his range to make getting it in here a very good spot but live I think it plays out differently. If he has the
I would imagine 90% of the time he calls (only real time he wants to 3bet/get it in is with AxKc) rather than 3bets so I really think his range is down to trip 5's and flushes. Remember he is an old Gibraltarian guy and as much as he was going mental last night when playing short stacked now he has 250bb and is up against someone else similarly deep when he is 3betting here he has a hand like 100% of the time. As it works out Alex was 100% correct in his read that he massively overvalues hands even though he was in front here. In these kind of games I think the ability find a fold in spots like this is key especially in games with a lot of limpers.
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