Value Bet gets tricky

[TightEnd]

Holdem No Limit $1/$2
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 1 : hotballs has $206.25
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 2 : dt396ss has $550.21
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 3 : dessie123 has $246.60
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 4 : DonkBrunson has $273.40
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 5 : mickeysails has $212
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 6 : pkrluv has $184
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 7 : TightBlonde has $172.25
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 8 : nirvana has $706.67
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : Seat 9 : Kat B has $116.91
[Jun 10 10:36:06] : mickeysails is the dealer.
[Jun 10 10:36:07] : pkrluv posted small blind.
[Jun 10 10:36:07] : TightBlonde posted big blind.
[Jun 10 10:36:09] : hotballs posted [dead] small blind.
[Jun 10 10:36:09] : Game [81851] started with 7 players.
[Jun 10 10:36:09] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Jun 10 10:36:09] : Seat 7 : TightBlonde has
[Jun 10 10:36:12] : hotballs folded.
[Jun 10 10:36:14] : dt396ss folded.
[Jun 10 10:36:16] : dessie123 : jammy
[Jun 10 10:36:20] : dessie123 called $2
[Jun 10 10:36:22] : DonkBrunson folded.
[Jun 10 10:36:24] : mickeysails folded.
[Jun 10 10:36:26] : pkrluv called $1
[Jun 10 10:36:28] : TightBlonde checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:29] : Dealing flop.
[Jun 10 10:36:29] : Board cards [ ]
[Jun 10 10:36:31] : pkrluv checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:32] : TightBlonde checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:33] : dessie123 checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:34] : Dealing turn.
[Jun 10 10:36:34] : Board cards [ ]
[Jun 10 10:36:38] : pkrluv checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:43] : TightBlonde checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:44] : dessie123 checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:44] : Dealing river.
[Jun 10 10:36:44] : Board cards [ ]
[Jun 10 10:36:45] : pkrluv checked.
[Jun 10 10:36:52] : TightBlonde bet $8
[Jun 10 10:36:56] : dessie123 called $8 and raised $32
[Jun 10 10:36:57] : pkrluv folded.
[Jun 10 10:36:59] : TightBlonde ?


OK so I make a gutshot straight on the river, no one has shown any interest in the pot....oppo is aggressive and has been hitting cards

I think I'm value betting, looks like I've been trapped...do you agree? call or pass?

[Newportlad]

Call

He has Trip 8's

[SupaMonkey]

I hear ya tighty but is that an overbet on the river. It looks like a steal attempt to me so i think you have to call here. He may have been trapping you but he may think your at it and be restealing.

Plus, straights aren't usually blatently obvious so he may have not thought about it (then again he may have 7-9). You didn't bet the flop so he knows you don't have a king or an 8. He may be good enough to figure that his reraise looks like he's been trapping and you can only call with a very strong hand (which it is very likely you don't have).

= my 2p

Edit, i have him on 

[GlasgowBandit]

I call just to se what he has 

I think he may well have trip 8's but its possible he has made the boat. 

[totalise]

This is a real easy fold

look at the economics... pot is $6 to the river.. tighty overbets himself to 8.. then someone raises to $40? you are ahead here a small % of the time. You are risking $32 to win $54.. so your direct odds are 1.68/1.. and you are never going to showdown the winning hand here 1 out of (about) 3 times, ever (against an unknown)


Naturally, against certain opponents this call is either trivially easy, against unknowns, the same can be said about a fold

Cash games aren't beaten by trying to make hero calls against unknowns, they are beaten by taking advantage of peoples weakness' over a longated period of time... and these river bets aren't bluffs/second best hands often enough to justify the call. People call too much, they over-value second best hands, but they dont play these hands in this manner. This is a monster with a rediculous frequency.. trying to salvage some money out of a poor situation

What does he have? god knows, maybe tighty calls and he did have the winning hand, thats irrelevant.. poker is a game of risk vs reward, and when your risk exceeds your reward (ie -EV) then its a pretty direct route to losing money, and fast... and this is one of those cases

[SupaMonkey]

So what's the minimum you would call here with?

[totalise]

So what's the minimum you would call here with?

(This is the key to why I think its such an easy fold)  remember that the calling issue comes because of his bet size.. not because he has raised..if he raises less I'd call with a higher frequency because of its implicit indication. If its an out and out bluff, then he is risking $40 to win $14. which seems real unlikely (in that, it does happen, but not often).. so its almost certainly a made hand, and tightys hand doesn't do well enough to call getting less then 2/1... because he isnt winning 1 out of 3 times here. This is based on experience at these levels, not on any theoretical issues.

You see people raising here with a lot of hands that you can beat, but you dont see them raising this much very often with hands you can beat.

Any boat I think I'd call, as 55 and 66 are just so likely hands for him to have, they play a pretty big part of his range

It all adds up to risking quite a lot to win relatively little (in proportionate terms), based on how the hand has played until the river, and in my experience, you get shown 88/66/55/79 (even KK!) here MUCH more then you get shown any hand you can beat (like a random 8 or even AA/pure bluff).. and as far as I care, its just not worth it at all

[TightEnd]

I called

He Showed KK


I overbet to make it look like a steal

When he came over the top I thought a) trip bingo! b) uh oh 97 or maybe c) resteal, I called not even considering a boat to be honest. Idiot.

Time to get totalise on speed-dial


Odd way to play KK I thought, no raise preflop, no bet on the flop on a flushing board

but of course he got nicely paid, so what do I know....

[SupaMonkey]

Odd way to play KK I thought, no raise preflop, no bet on the flop on a flushing board

 

[bolt pp]

When i'm playing cash games i'm trying to keep it a simple as possible for myself.

I dont want to be put in a situation were i'm having to guess or make a decission like this on the river into an unraised pot with no action on flop or turn.(of course having hit your river in this case its inevitable).

I try and look at it from the other guys point of veiw and ask two questions in this situation.

The first is from what you've seen of the guy is he capable of making a stone cold bluff of $24 to nick the $14 thats availible?

If the answer is no then you've got look at what hand he can re-raise with.

If he's limped with suited connectors or a8 and tripped up the 8 s not only would i think that with 3 people in the pot he must bet the turn but that he cant possibly re raise the river in fear of walking into a bigger kicker or a house.

I can never make that bet on the river with trips because i'm only going to be called or re-re raised by a hand thats beating me if your $8 bet represents the actual value of your hand and if you were just having a crack at the pot your not calling.

I may have called though just to keep him honest

You know if it was the other way round tighty you never make that bet on the river without a fullhouse.

[TightEnd]

When i'm playing cash games i'm trying to keep it a simple as possible for myself.

I dont want to be put in a situation were i'm having to guess or make a decission like this on the river into an unraised pot with no action on flop or turn.(of course having hit your river in this case its inevitable).

I try and look at it from the other guys point of veiw and ask two questions in this situation.

The first is from what you've seen of the guy is he capable of making a stone cold bluff of $24 to nick the $14 thats availible?

If the answer is no then you've got look at what hand he can re-raise with.

If he's limped with suited connectors or a8 and tripped up the 8 s not only would i think that with 3 people in the pot he must bet the turn but that he cant possibly re raise the river in fear of walking into a bigger kicker or a house.

I can never make that bet on the river with trips because i'm only going to be called or re-re raised by a hand thats beating me if your $8 bet represents the actual value of your hand and if you were just having a crack at the pot your not calling.

I may have called though just to keep him honest

You know if it was the other way round tighty you never make that bet on the river without a fullhouse.

thats all useful thnaks

You know online sometimes you just don't have enough time to work it all out. I didn't here get to the depth of analysis required to make the right play.

In those situations I think it must be best to pass, not make an iffy call

[bolt pp]

If its a guy against whom you regularly play then the info you got from looking him up on this particular hand is very handy

I know what you mean about the time constraints encountered online, its for this reason that i have a stringently formulised way of playing on line that i try not to deviate from.

I'm a very slow player live.

I love playing poker, proper poker, making reads, moves, and everything else that live poker entails but online for the most part i just want to play "abc" poker.

The point i was trying to make was that you probably knew that he could only make that bet with a full house but it was just one of those that you felt you had to have a little peak!!!, maybe just to appease your own sense of curiosity.

tut tut!!! dont do it again!! 

[RonK]

the massive over bet couldnt have ment pure strength no?