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Poker Hand Analysis
Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
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Topic: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30 (Read 5858 times)
ACE2M
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Posts: 7832
Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
on:
June 27, 2006, 11:59:02 AM »
blinds at 600/1200, i have 13,500 and am in the BB with K5 os.
UTG limps with a 22,000 stack, he has outplyed me a bit recently in the blinds with a re steal and a re raise on the flop. I have also recently done half my stack moving in with A7 suited to defend my BB but the button raiser had AA.
All fold to the SB who makes up the blinds and i check.
Flop comes K 10 7 no flush draw.
I bet 3k leaving 9k behind.
UTG limper moves in instantly and SB folds.
Call or fold?
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thetank
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Posts: 19278
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #1 on:
June 27, 2006, 12:04:00 PM »
Curse then pass.
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Bazzaboy
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Posts: 3668
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #2 on:
June 27, 2006, 12:12:07 PM »
fold
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ACE2M
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Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #3 on:
June 27, 2006, 12:21:34 PM »
Why? What do you put him on?
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SupaMonkey
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #4 on:
June 27, 2006, 12:43:18 PM »
Can someone explain the reason for passing here. If ACE2M has been reraised twice and each time he has folded, doesn't that mean that his oppo could just be at it here?
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Raindogs
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Posts: 183
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #5 on:
June 27, 2006, 02:37:35 PM »
If he is a conventional TAG player the only UTG limping hands I would put him on are KJ, KQ (possibly), or 77. I would expect a raise with 10 10. He could have 89 or QJ for the open ended straight.
Given that the number of hands with a K that he would limp in with are quite small (if he is reasonably tight) it is possible that he does not have the K but has either a set of 7's or an open ended straight draw. If he has the draw he may have put you on a weak K and thinks he can push you off it based on your previous folds.
I can't see UTG pulling this move without a K in his hand or possibly 77. His all-in will leave him short stacked close to the money and I can't see him donking off half his stack on a bluff at this stage when he has only put 1200 into the pot. He may be trying to bully you based on your previous folds but he must be wary that you are going to play back at him, and you have led out with a decent sized bet representing the K. For me the decision to call or fold depends on whether he is loose enough to limp UTG with K rag or agressive enough to push with an open ended straight draw.
erm..
No. I am not going out with K rag. I fold.
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boldie
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Posts: 22392
Don't make me mad
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #6 on:
June 27, 2006, 02:47:40 PM »
K rag wouldn't please me...I'd go out...especially seeing that you only need a few more players to dropout for prizemoney and in this situation k 5 is not good enough to justify getting knocked out with. but then I@m a tight player
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SupaMonkey
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Allin!
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #7 on:
June 27, 2006, 02:53:32 PM »
Raindog,
So what you are saying is that they way to play this is to check fold or to check raise all in depending on your read of the player and given your table image, you should only be leading into this guy when you want him to come over the top, i.e. when you have him by the goolies.
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Royal Flush
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Posts: 22690
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #8 on:
June 27, 2006, 02:58:48 PM »
the key here is how many chips the SB has, the UTG player has gone all in so with a player to act behind you would think that he must have something!
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ACE2M
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Posts: 7832
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #9 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:11:04 PM »
Quote from: Raindogs on June 27, 2006, 02:37:35 PM
If he is a conventional TAG player the only UTG limping hands I would put him on are KJ, KQ (possibly), or 77. I would expect a raise with 10 10. He could have 89 or QJ for the open ended straight.
Given that the number of hands with a K that he would limp in with are quite small (if he is reasonably tight) it is possible that he does not have the K but has either a set of 7's or an open ended straight draw. If he has the draw he may have put you on a weak K and thinks he can push you off it based on your previous folds.
I can't see UTG pulling this move without a K in his hand or possibly 77. His all-in will leave him short stacked close to the money and I can't see him donking off half his stack on a bluff at this stage when he has only put 1200 into the pot. He may be trying to bully you based on your previous folds but he must be wary that you are going to play back at him, and you have led out with a decent sized bet representing the K. For me the decision to call or fold depends on whether he is loose enough to limp UTG with K rag or agressive enough to push with an open ended straight draw.
erm..
No. I am not going out with K rag. I fold.
Hands he may have limped,
77 definately possible but surely a milking bet would be more appropriate,
10 10 i think he would raise pre flop,
QJ i don't think he would play QJ UTG,
AK definate raise pre flop,
KQ possible if suited,
I don't think he would play any other Hand with a K in it.
He may have AA with the limp, strong possibility but i still feel he raises around the bubble with AA
KK definate raise pre flop.
AQ definate raise pre flop,
AJ very possible given i think he is fairly decent player and knows the danger of AJ.
Hands i am fairly confident he doesn't have therfore are -
10,10
QJ
AK
AQ
KK
Leaving -
77
AA
KQ suited
AJ
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matt674
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10250
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #10 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:13:59 PM »
Quote from: ACE2M on June 27, 2006, 03:11:04 PM
Quote from: Raindogs on June 27, 2006, 02:37:35 PM
If he is a conventional TAG player the only UTG limping hands I would put him on are KJ, KQ (possibly), or 77. I would expect a raise with 10 10. He could have 89 or QJ for the open ended straight.
Given that the number of hands with a K that he would limp in with are quite small (if he is reasonably tight) it is possible that he does not have the K but has either a set of 7's or an open ended straight draw. If he has the draw he may have put you on a weak K and thinks he can push you off it based on your previous folds.
I can't see UTG pulling this move without a K in his hand or possibly 77. His all-in will leave him short stacked close to the money and I can't see him donking off half his stack on a bluff at this stage when he has only put 1200 into the pot. He may be trying to bully you based on your previous folds but he must be wary that you are going to play back at him, and you have led out with a decent sized bet representing the K. For me the decision to call or fold depends on whether he is loose enough to limp UTG with K rag or agressive enough to push with an open ended straight draw.
erm..
No. I am not going out with K rag. I fold.
Hands he may have limped,
77 definately possible but surely a milking bet would be more appropriate,
10 10 i think he would raise pre flop,
QJ i don't think he would play QJ UTG,
AK definate raise pre flop,
KQ possible if suited,
I don't think he would play any other Hand with a K in it.
He may have AA with the limp, strong possibility but i still feel he raises around the bubble with AA
KK definate raise pre flop.
AQ definate raise pre flop,
AJ very possible given i think he is fairly decent player and knows the danger of AJ.
Hands i am fairly confident he doesn't have therfore are -
10,10
QJ
AK
AQ
KK
Leaving -
77
AA
KQ suited
AJ
did you figure all this out in the 15 seconds before the computer beeped telling you you only have 15 seconds to act or after?
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ACE2M
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 7832
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #11 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:16:35 PM »
Quote from: matt674 on June 27, 2006, 03:13:59 PM
Quote from: ACE2M on June 27, 2006, 03:11:04 PM
Quote from: Raindogs on June 27, 2006, 02:37:35 PM
If he is a conventional TAG player the only UTG limping hands I would put him on are KJ, KQ (possibly), or 77. I would expect a raise with 10 10. He could have 89 or QJ for the open ended straight.
Given that the number of hands with a K that he would limp in with are quite small (if he is reasonably tight) it is possible that he does not have the K but has either a set of 7's or an open ended straight draw. If he has the draw he may have put you on a weak K and thinks he can push you off it based on your previous folds.
I can't see UTG pulling this move without a K in his hand or possibly 77. His all-in will leave him short stacked close to the money and I can't see him donking off half his stack on a bluff at this stage when he has only put 1200 into the pot. He may be trying to bully you based on your previous folds but he must be wary that you are going to play back at him, and you have led out with a decent sized bet representing the K. For me the decision to call or fold depends on whether he is loose enough to limp UTG with K rag or agressive enough to push with an open ended straight draw.
erm..
No. I am not going out with K rag. I fold.
Hands he may have limped,
77 definately possible but surely a milking bet would be more appropriate,
10 10 i think he would raise pre flop,
QJ i don't think he would play QJ UTG,
AK definate raise pre flop,
KQ possible if suited,
I don't think he would play any other Hand with a K in it.
He may have AA with the limp, strong possibility but i still feel he raises around the bubble with AA
KK definate raise pre flop.
AQ definate raise pre flop,
AJ very possible given i think he is fairly decent player and knows the danger of AJ.
Hands i am fairly confident he doesn't have therfore are -
10,10
QJ
AK
AQ
KK
Leaving -
77
AA
KQ suited
AJ
did you figure all this out in the 15 seconds before the computer beeped telling you you only have 15 seconds to act or after?
in the time i had i decided he had AA or AJ and his perception of me as a folder gave me the thought he may be pulling a stroke. I made my decision literaly as the time bar reached nothing.
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matt674
Hero Member
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Posts: 10250
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #12 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:23:44 PM »
and after all this deliberation he turns over 8-9 suited for an up and down straight draw and hits his 6 on the river?
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Graham C
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Posts: 20663
Moo
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #13 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:38:19 PM »
or has 10 7 soooted
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clayftknight
Full Member
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Posts: 173
Re: Down to 35 players and money starts at 30
«
Reply #14 on:
June 27, 2006, 03:50:10 PM »
This is an easy call for me, every single time.
I do not get why you would fold at all, and even more so why you would bet and then fold!
If he has you beat so what, you flop 2pair you play it.
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