El Blondie's Exit Hand (WSOP $2000 NLHE)

[Junior Senior]

I've just read about Dave's exit on the Blonde Home Page. 

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/3035


Now i am not criticising play here at all, I happen to think Dave is an excellent player.  I am just trying to start a debate.  Although Dave has made a great read and a ballsy (correct, once the cards are flipped) call.  I want to know, given the situation (blinds, chip stacks, the tourney)......Who else calls here? I personally would fold up quicker than a cheap deck chair in a stiff breeze.

thoughts........................

[TightEnd]

what a call! one I could never have made.....


hard luck DC.

[ripple11]

 A great read and a great call by Dave, very unlucky,......but like Junior and Tighty I would have folded.

 I wouldn't know where I was with such a massive overbet , and given the tourney situation , I would let him have it......but hey, thats why I might scrape in the money, and Dave might win it !!

[marcro]

I would also have folded and will be interested to hear DC's thinking for going all in at this stage when he in most cases at best he will be a 60% favourite.

[matt674]

Does DC also say in his piece though that he could see that his opponent appeared uneasy while he was contemplating his actions.

Yes, its easy for us to say that we would fold in this situation - and in most cases i would too but then if i see something that would change my opinion for that specific situation then i may not always take my usual course of action.

As DC was the only one who saw how Max was acting and therefore it's a lot harder for anyone else to come to the same conclusion as we dont have all the facts to hand.

[marcro]

Does DC also say in his piece though that he could see that his opponent appeared uneasy while he was contemplating his actions.

Yes, its easy for us to say that we would fold in this situation - and in most cases i would too but then if i see something that would change my opinion for that specific situation then i may not always take my usual course of action.

As DC was the only one who saw how Max was acting and therefore it's a lot harder for anyone else to come to the same conclusion as we dont have all the facts to hand.

True - I guess he is prepared to take this gamble in order to position himself to win the tourney.  I witnessed a similar play from Julian Thew last year in Amsterdam - we were approaching the money and he raised from the button and the big blind went all in and had Julian covered.  Julian did not think very long and called with KJ which beat the BB's Q4.  An amazing play which sent the BB into a bit of a fit, lol.  I can still hear the words "KJ, KJ......how can you call with KJ?"

[matt674]

True - I guess he is prepared to take this gamble in order to position himself to win the tourney.  I witnessed a similar play from Julian Thew last year in Amsterdam - we were approaching the money and he raised from the button and the big blind went all in and had Julian covered.  Julian did not think very long and called with KJ which beat the BB's Q4.  An amazing play which sent the BB into a bit of a fit, lol.  I can still hear the words "KJ, KJ......how can you call with KJ?"

Exactly, they had already made the money so DC knew he was going to show a profit for the tournament regardless but he then wanted to put himself in a position to make the Final Table and get as close to the bracelet as possible.

1 Final Table will probably make more profit that 10 "also ran" cashes and even more importantly 1 bracelet means countless additional "bonus" opportunities away from the green felt tables!!

As our friend Mr. Wilson always makes the point of mentioning "PLAY TO WIN BABY!!"

If you think your opponent is "at it" then have the courage of your convictions to follow your instincts

[Milkybarkid]

The key to this hand is that he only made up the SB... so was probably hoping that Max would make some kind of move if he had been playing very aggressively.

Conventional play with A9 from the SB would be to raise the BB. So when Max moved all in after dave showed "weakness" by limping, it would be very tempting to call.

[Graham C]

Making calls like that is what can make you a WSOP bracelet holder.  I can't say I'd have called with that but then it's easy to say sitting here. 

Good call and a little unfortunate to lose out there.

[Raindogs]

Even if the guy has 2 live rags DC is a 2/1 favourite at most (I think).  If he has a small PP he is a slight dog but if his opponent has called with a small PP he may very well be showing weakness hence DC's read.  The fact that his opponent was dominated was a bonus but it would be an amazing read to put him on A rag.  This is normally where the donkey in me comes out and I make a F**K YOU call (and usually regret it afterwards).

I guess it boils down to whether you can put your opponent on an unpaired rag hand and if 2/1 is good enough to call for all of your chips.  Would a coinflip be enough to call in this spot ?

Given that DC had around 20BB left I would be interested to know what hands anyone else would call with in this spot.  How low would your stack have to be to make it a call ?  How high for a fold ?

[SupaMonkey]

To all the people who said pass, would you pass that online or down the notts gala (for example). In my regular game, i would probably call in a flash but at the WSOP i would probably talk myself out of calling (i.e. got enough chips, don't need to make this call etc.)

[ACE2M]

i think the main drive behind the call is the perception of your opponents unease at the call. I saw the milkybarkid do it in monte carlo against dustin derksen. It's why the vast majority of us will never be big winners, you need to trust yourself sometimes and make an instinct call.

[elblondie]

Wow. Hi Guys.
I didn't realise how much interest this had stirred up.

Firstly, I think A9 v A4 is more than a 60% favourite but that's sort of irrelevant.

The easy bit. We had just made the money. I would not have made this call half an hour earlier just outside the money and I probably would not have made it at a later stage where the money jumps were of greater value.

There was a little bit of history from about an hour earlier when Max had doubled me up trying to bully me on the flop. I check called him on the flop and turn for all my chips with second pair and he didnt like it. He has a big ego and he had a big stack, I was kindov expecting him to 'try and intimidate me' in some way or other. I may not have called most other opponents.

As soon as I started talking to him and counting his chips I was pretty sure he was very uneasy with the situation. He realised that I had limped with some sort of hand and I could tell he wasn't happy.
I went through the possible hands he could have like so....
AK, AQ, AJ and all major pairs....he will probably make an average raise of say 4k giving me opportunity to hang myself by re-raising up to 20k
small pairs....he may well like to see a flop and try and make a set and get paid with me dead...although I was unsure about this
I came to the conclusion that the only hands he could have that I need worry about were A10 and possible AJ, 99
I really fancied him for being unhappy with the situation...and he generally talks too much during a hand... I was sure he didn't like me thinking about a call and he didn't like me counting out 23k in chips. I think he may have though I had only 15 or so.

The other train of thought was...
23k is just below the average which was approx 30k at the time, not in trouble but not comfortable...just one coin flip AK v QQ away from an exit or somethings imlar
However 48k in chips would have put me right up in about 10th to 15th spot, made me chip leader at my table ...... and given me a real shot at $850,000
Yes that's $850,000.... less than 150 players left where i was chip leader at my table with an opportunity to win $850,000 !!!!

I could have waited for later opportunities, yes. But who knows maybe the later opportunities would not have come along. They usually don't.
I am pretty sure I would make this decison every time and have no regrets.


 

[BigTomatoes]

 well id say its a jolly good call old chap.

 its a call that seperates a player of daves class from most of us mere mortals.

 unlucky dave, im sure if you carry on to play the way you are and with reads like that you could do very well in other tourneys of the wsop. good luck.

 

[Graham C]

ditto, good luck for the rest of the wsop.  I see from your P&L account that the old omaha cash games are going well