Trusting your gut, mugs game or best way to play.

[Newmanseye]

I prefer to play using my "gut" for judgement, You know the way where your gut tells you your jacks are gonna get out drawn so you limp/muck knowing you were gonna go broke otherwise, I know I enjoy poker more playing this way.

I want to know who else plays this way, Who else trusts their card instincts when playing online, and who thinks its a load of bolloks?

[bolt pp]

Devilfish was on PNL i think the other night and the Bird asked him how he'd play a particular hand from a particular position to which he replied: " YOU'VE MADE THE WRONG BOOKING FOR THIS PROGRAM, THERES SO MANY THINGS I'D HAVE TO ENCORPERATE INTO MY DESCISION THAT YOU HAVENT MENTIONED; MY TABLE IMAGE, HOW I PERCIEVE THE PERSON WITH WHOM I'M IN THE POT, OTHER PEOPLES POSITON" he wound up saying: "I CANT GIVE YOU AN ANSWER" because it all depends how he feels at the time, feeling about things you cant memorialise!

I dont know if thew bird was able to carry on in light of the fact that poker doesn't revolve around Harrington and -+ev but thats the devilfish contention regarding analysing any given hand.

Guaranteed right!!! "HOLLA" in absence of nemesis who aint posted in a while cos theres too many idiots about.

[Stone]

I would agree with your gut statement, I have changed how I play  and  when I have position on someone who I think has  in a tourney. I always used to aggressively re-raise pre-flop and we get it all in only to see my lovely pair get cracked. I was re-reading Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Adv Players (not sure I really qualify), he is very clear to stay away from 50-50's if you can, at least try to see a flop and make another judgement after he has fired again.

The issue I guess is having the confidence that there will be a better spot, I would rather go out getting priced into a war over blind stealing from the button or cut-off, at least thats a positive move.

[thetank]

Why limp muck, why not just muck?

[Newmanseye]

Why limp muck, why not just muck?

I find it impossible to muck a pair when its an unraised pot, Even though my gut feeling tells me I am horsed I still have to confirm my gut, its a funy human thing, you bot's would not understand

[Sark79]

Guaranteed right!!! "HOLLA" in absence of nemesis who aint posted in a while cos theres too many idiots about.

I can't help being an idiot, it is the result of living in a house full of plants and also the poor educational system in my area 

[thetank]

There's nothing wrong with using your gut to read another players hand, take many factors into consideration that change the relative value of your hand (as Mr. Ulliot alluded to) etc etc.

All that is to be actively encouraged, it's the essence of poker.

It's your changing your relative value of your hand because your gut says that the flop will be bad that worries me. I think this is what you're talking about here.
What's the differnce between that, and punting on black at roulette because your gut tells you it's not going to be red.

Now I don't want to take the piss here, that's not my intent. You've said that you enjoy doing things this way, that's fair enough and there's no way I can knock that.

[Newmanseye]

What I mean is, you know the times when your hand wont hold, so rather than go broke just play it passively, I have gone in to hands 76% to win yet I know my opponent is going to hit his set with his smaller pair.

Have you never been playing and that "little Voice" inside tells you to play your cards / Muck your cards, only to do the opposite just to see the "little" voice was right?

I know this happens to me, I know Phil Gordon advocated this also.

Now before the piss taking starts I am not claiming to have esp, So no sending me pics of tarot cards!

[mikkyT]

This worries me.

The "little voice" in my head says things like "You're top pair top kicker is no good, your opponent has flopped middle set".

But, correct me if I am wrong here, your "little voice" says things like "my aces are no good pre-flop, this guy is going to flop a straight".... It seems to me that you ARE saying you have ESP!?

[AndrewT]

What I mean is, you know the times when your hand wont hold, so rather than go broke just play it passively,

And, of course, by playing passively you remove one of the ways the hand can win (making the other guy fold) making it more likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

There are two separate issues here.

The gut feeling 'he's got a big hand here - I should fold' can be the result of your subconscious instantaneously picking up on clues (betting patterns, tells etc) that your opponent is acting in a similar way to the way people do when they have a big hand. This is a good 'gut feeling' and should be listened to (provided you've trained it enough).

The second gut feeling is 'My Jacks will probably lose' based on, what, exactly? The fact you're predisposed to more likely remember bad beats than the times they hold up?

[Newmanseye]

The second gut feeling is 'My Jacks will probably lose' based on, what, exactly? The fact you're predisposed to more likely remember bad beats than the times they hold up?

Its just a gut feeling, there is no Math involved, its that gut feeling that tells you to make the wrong decision for your own good.

Let me put it another way, how many times have you looked down to find a complete junk hand and you raise cos your gut tells you you are going to win?

Its a 2 way street for the wrong play that works to your advantage.

Surely i am not the only person on the forum that gets gut feelings?

[Wardonkey]

We all get gut feelings that we may not be able to explain, but they are usually based on information we have recieved and not processed completely rather than random predictions of future events.

[Newmanseye]

We all get gut feelings that we may not be able to explain, but they are usually based on information we have recieved and not processed completely rather than random predictions of future events.

Good post mate.

Now where does that come from and how come its right most of the time?

[Teacake]

I think your sig tells us more about your state of mind than anything you've posted in this thread.

If you've got Jacks & you "know" your oppo has a lower pair why arent you raising him to either fold or make a bad call?

[Royal Flush]

Have you never been playing and that "little Voice" inside tells you to play your cards / Muck your cards, only to do the opposite just to see the "little" voice was right?

No.