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Poker Hand Analysis
AK late on
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Topic: AK late on (Read 10651 times)
ACE2M
Hero Member
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Posts: 7832
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #15 on:
October 18, 2006, 11:56:35 AM »
Quote from: boldie on October 18, 2006, 11:31:44 AM
Quote from: ACE2M on October 18, 2006, 11:28:43 AM
How much does the fact that he made the same raise from the same position with a poor result on the last circuit affect your decision?
Is it likely that he would significantly reduce his raising range when i am in the blinds considering the last circuit?
oh that definetly helps for me....however...the question you should also ask is
Is it likely he thinks YOU would significantly reduce your raising range considering last circuit. (IOW...will he be thinking you're at it because you got away with it last time).
So if i think his raising range may or may not have shrunk and his calling range has probably grown to include lower pairs and AQ there is only really 1/2 hands that i want him to call with, so a push would be wrong.
A x3 re raise commits over a 3rd of my stack to the pot, can i fold to a re re raise?
The call and evaluate (probably having a small stab at it) on the flop looks pretty inviting
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #16 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:06:53 PM »
Quote from: ACE2M on October 18, 2006, 11:56:35 AM
Quote from: boldie on October 18, 2006, 11:31:44 AM
Quote from: ACE2M on October 18, 2006, 11:28:43 AM
How much does the fact that he made the same raise from the same position with a poor result on the last circuit affect your decision?
Is it likely that he would significantly reduce his raising range when i am in the blinds considering the last circuit?
oh that definetly helps for me....however...the question you should also ask is
Is it likely he thinks YOU would significantly reduce your raising range considering last circuit. (IOW...will he be thinking you're at it because you got away with it last time).
So if i think his raising range may or may not have shrunk and his calling range has probably grown to include lower pairs and AQ there is only really 1/2 hands that i want him to call with, so a push would be wrong.
A x3 re raise commits over a 3rd of my stack to the pot, can i fold to a re re raise?
The call and evaluate (probably having a small stab at it) on the flop looks pretty inviting
point1; Not really, if you think his calling range has grown that's not necesarilly a bad thing. i wouldn't mind him calling with lower pairs ..actually I would kindoff like to see that (and AQ especially) as that would give me a fair shot at doubling up.
Any pair lower then KK is fine with me and therefore I'd push (that really is simply because I'm going for the double up and at this stage of the tourney I don't mind risking my stack to win it...if the prize structure supports making that move (IOW top heavy prize structure)
A x3 reraise would indeed commit your stack so I wouldn't like to fold after that reraise...it's also why I wouldn't reraise him by x3. and as I pointed out, less then x3 probably won't push him off...so why not move all-in if you are considering that.
the flatcall doesn't appeal to me for the reasons I mentioned before.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #17 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:17:32 PM »
I think his calling range has widened slightly here. I can't see him passing 99+ or AJ+ here. He is likely to think you're at it again. He is also likely to have raised with these sorts of hands in exactly the same manner as last round because he thinks your shove range is huge imo.
If you min reraise etc. it looks like you are saving some of your stack so you can pass to a re-shove. I would say you are inviting/inducing the reshove so you don't gain any info by the manoeuvre.
I don't like putting 1/7th of my stack in and then folding, so there is only one move for me.
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tantrum
K2o
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #18 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:24:15 PM »
the more i think the more i am inclined to flat call the raise and hope to see the flop. I really think overplaying AK is the easiest way to go broke in the tourney.
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'Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is.'
Francis Bacon
boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #19 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:27:27 PM »
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 12:24:15 PM
the more i think the more i am inclined to flat call the raise and hope to see the flop. I really think overplaying AK is the easiest way to go broke in the tourney.
lol..the more I think the more I am positive the push is the right move lol.
It is not a case of overplaying the AK to push it, I think. ANY hand below K's that the raiser has will be fine with me in this situation...unless I think he has KK or AA my chips are in as I want to win the tourney. And overplaying AK would be to call a reraise by the BB and an all in by UTG here. you are the agressor in this and therefore aren't overplaying him as you don't really mind him calling but a fold will do nicely to
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SupaMonkey
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Allin!
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #20 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:34:06 PM »
If you have 73k and the pot is 25k, your postflop play is limited to playing when you hit and folding when you miss. You are only reraising the guy another 6x his raise if you push preflop, i would prefer to take the 25k now.
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tantrum
K2o
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #21 on:
October 18, 2006, 12:49:30 PM »
Quote
It is not a case of overplaying the AK to push it, I think. ANY hand below K's that the raiser has will be fine with me in this situation...unless I think he has KK or AA my chips are in as I want to win the tourney. And overplaying AK would be to call a reraise by the BB and an all in by UTG here. you are the agressor in this and therefore aren't overplaying him as you don't really mind him calling but a fold will do nicely ty
What I really mean is that, I am not a big fan of commiting my stack with AK preflop. for me AK is just a hand like any others, and there are plenty of opportunites for me to win the tourney. I understand that you are becoming an aggressor, but If i don't commit my stack I can re-raise with any two. Maybe I am missing something but if you go all in, you want either your opponnent to fold or call. If they call you, they, unless total maniacs, will probably have better hands then you. By saying this, they should have better hand then you to call the re-raise, but to find out if they do or not have a better hand I am not willing to put my tournament life on the line (unless short stacked)
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'Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is.'
Francis Bacon
SupaMonkey
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Allin!
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #22 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:03:21 PM »
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 12:49:30 PM
If they call you, they, unless total maniacs, will probably have better hands then you.
Not if he thinks you are restealing.
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boldie
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Re: AK late on
«
Reply #23 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:20:20 PM »
Quote from: SupaMonkey on October 18, 2006, 01:03:21 PM
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 12:49:30 PM
If they call you, they, unless total maniacs, will probably have better hands then you.
Not if he thinks you are restealing.
yep
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GlasgowBandit
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Global Pacifier
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #24 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:20:54 PM »
So we all agree its either a call, push or fold???
Anybody else fancy doing something different?
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boldie
Hero Member
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Don't make me mad
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #25 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:23:25 PM »
Quote from: GlasgowBandit on October 18, 2006, 01:20:54 PM
So we all agree its either a call, push or fold???
Anybody else fancy doing something different?
Well raise is out (except push) and IMO flatcall is out.
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kvnstv
A bit of a plum
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Jesse May called, he wants his hair back.
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #26 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:36:38 PM »
Quote from: GlasgowBandit on October 18, 2006, 01:20:54 PM
So we all agree its either a call, push or fold???
Anybody else fancy doing something different?
Good post, tee hee. You can do all the ICM forecasts and analysis and it nearly always comes down to this 'shove it or fold'.
«
Last Edit: October 18, 2006, 01:44:43 PM by kvnstv
»
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tantrum
K2o
Hero Member
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Posts: 1427
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #27 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:45:37 PM »
Quote
Well raise is out (except push) and IMO flatcall is out.
So fold or push?
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'Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not; a sense of humor to console him for what he is.'
Francis Bacon
boldie
Hero Member
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Posts: 22392
Don't make me mad
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #28 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:51:00 PM »
Quote from: tantrum on October 18, 2006, 01:45:37 PM
Quote
Well raise is out (except push) and IMO flatcall is out.
So fold or push?
yes...and (if you don't see the BB drool over his cards) 95% of the time it's a push.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
ACE2M
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Posts: 7832
Re: AK late on
«
Reply #29 on:
October 18, 2006, 01:51:37 PM »
This happened last night in the first tournament i have played online for a few months, he was the only player who had me covered. I've got my finger on the all in raise button all the way but just before i did it i had a real strong feeling that it was a bad spot, i ignored my gut instinct and pushed, he called flipped aces and i exited.
I was thinking for a while about it last night trying to figure out what my subconcious had been so concerned about and i had ignored. It's definately a tricky spot and this is the umpteenth time i have regretted not listening to my instincts.
There was another really funky KK hand in the tournment but i will look it up in the hand histories when i get home and post it.
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