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Poker Hand Analysis
Theoretical cash game question
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Topic: Theoretical cash game question (Read 1725 times)
TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Theoretical cash game question
«
on:
December 05, 2006, 04:16:44 PM »
In your experience please:
Levels $2-4 to $5-10
you are playing 100x bb minimum
You raise 3-4x bb with a big pair in EP/MP
You get a LP caller and both blinds
Your image is solid, but you haven't shown many hands. People respect you
No specific info on your foes
The flop gives you top set but is all one suit
You are either check raised a substantial amount by a blind or you bet and are raised all in by LP
Should you stack off here?
In your experience what is there to distinguish people making the check raise or raise with the bare flush card or the actual flush?
Do you in the time available calculate the odds to house up? Is this a consideration for you or does it pay to assume you are being set in by the nut flush draw?
No bad beats here, I am just seeking advice.
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ACE2M
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #1 on:
December 05, 2006, 04:23:45 PM »
interesting question, i'm stacking off to the LP everytime and to the blinds most times. Someone can easily be protecting 2 pair or a smaller set as well as playing tptk with the nut flush draw or the bare nut flush draw. To many times your in front not to go all the way. I could well be wrong though.
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Sheriff Fatman
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
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Reply #2 on:
December 05, 2006, 04:29:32 PM »
Worst case scenario (made flush) would make you around a 2:1 dog. Everything else you're way ahead so I probably call every time provided I'm not convinced its a made flush and the money is so deep as to not give close to the right odds.
I'd give more credit for a made flush if I held AA as you'd expect someone pushing on a flush draw to be holding the Ace of that suit.
Sheriff
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Highstack
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #3 on:
December 05, 2006, 04:37:16 PM »
Only experience of your foes would give you a handle on their holdings so we would be unable to comment even hypothetically as each situation is different and the action which had gone before in that session or others may determine your decision.
You suggest that you know nothing of your foes, but what do they know of you? If you are Rocky McRock who is exceptionally tight and plays a very limited range, then it is easy to assess your likely holdings. If they are sure that you have an overpair they know you can't let go of or a set that they want to take on when favourite, they may be more determined to push with a made hand rather than a draw (In particular a made flush that is not the nut flush). They know that you will be calling with incorrect odds.
That said, you have 10 cards to improve and two to come.
In answer to the original question, I guess that most of us probably stack off in most situations here, especially as you say this is a cash game. Deep in a tournament, I would be more reluctant to as when you're out, you're out.
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doubleup
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #4 on:
December 05, 2006, 05:16:58 PM »
Yes it's just as likely an over/pair flushdraw does this as a made flush. In my experience made flushes tend to wait till the turn to reveal themselves.
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kinboshi
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #5 on:
December 05, 2006, 06:58:17 PM »
In it goes.
I'd also do the same with the non-nut flush as well probably...
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totalise
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #6 on:
December 06, 2006, 09:25:09 AM »
i'd stack off all the time here. Set = nutso
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Longines
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #7 on:
December 06, 2006, 12:37:20 PM »
If I know the villian and I also know that they know that I'm Mr-tighter-than-a-gnat's-chuff, then I may lay.
The other 95% of the time, I'm stacking off.
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maxward
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #8 on:
December 15, 2006, 03:57:34 PM »
Im going for broke every time! Get it in!
He has position and a potential big pair/AK against him (early raise tight player).
Situation1:
He has caught the flush and youve bet at the pot, why would he come over the top? surely hes beating almost everything but a paired board? Can an over pair call that, possibly but some may lay and he doesnt get paid. Small trips, big trips again some may fold, risk of not being paid. AK definatley folds. Therfore I dont associate this play with a caught flush, either that or its just a bad play with a made hand. With a caught flush he wants to be paid so whilst maybe hes hoping people put him on a bluff, hes more likely to slow play flop and raises the turn.
Situation2:
He had bare flush card on a draw. He knows your holding AK or big air and the only thing that your likely to fold to is bigger trips/overpair, hard to reprsent without a reraise preflop, or a made flush which he is repping. Even then I think most would question a big push on the flop, its not giving enough value to induce a call. To me the big push looks like your being pushed of a hand from someone who feels he knows your hand.
Note:
The odds of catching suited cards and flopping a flush are suitably long for you to assume hes missed. Its a cash game, its about playing the book, statistically hes more often than not going to have a bare flushg card at best, as such you have to push everytime.
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boldie
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Re: Theoretical cash game question
«
Reply #9 on:
December 15, 2006, 04:40:07 PM »
I'd stack off...I hate these boards (as is well documented) but if someone is holding the made flush you can always pair the board.
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