I think he's bluffing but...

[byronkincaid]

there's so much that beats me here. Many different ways to play this. Villain is a 43/19 loose player who seems to be trying to bluff people off hands.

Who donk bets the flop? I almost never do this, is this a good time? I just expect this guy to raise the bet with anything though and I would have to fold what could easily be the best hand.

He over bets the pot on the flop and I'm fairly confident that he has nothing. I think I should probably raise now, but he has been calling with nothing so it wouldn't surprise me if he did here.

Playing it as I have should I bet the river, represent the flush and try to get to a cheapish showdown?

I hate the river card he could have been betting the whole way with A2 or some crap like that. TBH I have absolutely no idea what he has, he literally could have anything. I need to think about this but I only have 30 seconds to make a decision.

Seat 1: Schmitty ($627.75 in chips)
Seat 2: DTDPOKER ($626.91 in chips)
Seat 3: -Gotcha- ($440.77 in chips)
Seat 4: xdhaj ($885.71 in chips)
Seat 5: smilinsam ($223.06 in chips)
Seat 6: Nobody002 ($152.82 in chips)
DTDPOKER: posts small blind $2
-Gotcha-: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to -Gotcha- [ ]
xdhaj: folds
smilinsam: folds
Nobody002: folds
Schmitty: raises to $10
DTDPOKER: calls $8
-Gotcha-: calls $5
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
DTDPOKER: checks
-Gotcha-: checks
Schmitty: bets $35
DTDPOKER: folds
-Gotcha-: calls $35
----- TURN ----- [ ][]
-Gotcha-: checks
Schmitty: bets $75
-Gotcha-: calls $75
----- RIVER ----- [ ][]
-Gotcha-: checks
Schmitty: bets $125
-Gotcha-: what to do?

[Graham C]

Personally, I'd fold.   It's not the way I'd have played the hand, donk or no donk.   A bet/raise on the flop is definitely in order.  I'd have  bet the turn without a doubt, there are too many draws out there for my liking now and  I'd rather he was calling me than me calling him, especially with that ace turning up.

[byronkincaid]

OK so say he calls your bet or raise on the flop. You bet the turn, he calls.

You bet the river he raises or you check the river and he puts a big chunky bet in?

You're inflating the pot OOP with TPWK, I'm not saying you're wrong, I think your line is better than mine but there are drawbacks.

I guess I'm having trouble with controlling pot sizes against loose aggro players who will try to get me off pots.

It may just be best to get out of this pot early and wait for a better opportunity???

[Graham C]

Was he raising preflop a lot? 

Not an easy one to call and to be honest, it's out of my limit too.  Is he likely to raise if you stick a bet in or is he more likely to call?  I don't really know but if you don't bet, you don't give him an opportunity to fold.  If he raises on the river, I think I'd have to pass.  There's so many crappy hands he could easily have. 

I don't know

[byronkincaid]

if you don't bet, you don't give him an opportunity to fold.

very good point

[Graham C]

I've been playing limit recently (mainly because of crappy situations similar to this) and that's one of the things I've taken on board from  the book I'm reading.

Of course, it also gives them an opportunity to raise, but it does give them the the opportunity to fold

[doubleup]

hmmm how about betting 75 on the river?

[byronkincaid]

yeah a blocking bet works here I think.

[totalise]

folding the turn is ok here, Id lead the flop though.. I like to lead with many hands, it makes it more expensive for them to steal pots, and it lets you build pots early when you flop big hands in spots like this. I think a flop c/r is a mince move, in fact I think check raising in general is vastly over-rated and misapplied.

[temp0r]

when you're calling a raise with Q10 you really need to question what your opportunity is. what you really want is spiking 2 pair against AQ/KQ or finding a big draw against a single pair. you've hit your queen. big whoop. i'd raise the flop and fold if i'm called and bet at again.

[snoopy1239]

I'd fold the River. Chances are you're beat.

I would have played it very differently. For a start, I would have been inclined to make a chunky check raise to see exactly where I was. It's a harmless rainbow flop, so you know that if he plays back at you, you're probably done with the hand. Secondly, I'd fold on the Turn. I don't want to call bets from pre-flop raisers with hands that I'm not sure I'm ahead with, expecially when it's likely to be followed by a River bet. Therefore, if you're going to call the Turn, you're saying I'm going to call the River too. If you don't plan on calling a River bet, then you should fold on the Turn.

Top pair dodgy kicker from the blinds is a situation where people often do a load of their chips unnecesarily. Play with extreme caution is my advice and skin your cat another day.

[byronkincaid]

I folded the river, he showed his bluff, I got him back later.

[snoopy1239]

Instant call

[byronkincaid]

 

[snoopy1239]

Yep, he bluffed you, but unless you have detailed notes on your opponent, then, from the way the hand has panned out, it is very difficult to know if he is bluffing or playing a genuine hand. Therefore, you're pretty much resorting to guesswork.

In this sense, and considering the vulnerability of your hand, I would get away from these situations as early as possible and wait for better opportunities where you know you have them by the short and curlies.

I think a key point to this hand is that you're always going to struggle holding a marginal hand out of position to a pre-flop raiser, whether they're bluffing or not. Do you really want to shove all that money in to find out when you can fleece them later on? If he's willing to make these cavalier moves, then there's no reason why you won't.

For me, I prefer to invest as little as possible on these 'guessing' hands. I often get shown bluffs, but then I tend to send them packing when I take their WHOLE stack 20 minutes later.