The dollar...?

[Karabiner]

I think that if the $ were to break through the magic $2/£1 barrier it could well go into freefalll.

But it seems to me that every time it gets to around £1.95 it makes a bit of a recovery.

My guess is that barring any world calamaties, it will stay between $1.90/$1.95 in the short(six month)term.

[ItsMrAlex2u]

There is no way in the world that the USD will go into freefall, that just aint gonna happen as it would have massive implications on the whole world economy. The US and UK trade links are just to massive to allow that. I have some data and commentary and work which I will publish later, but its similar to the earlier post. Long term USD will strengthen again, but it might take a while. If you have USD now and dont need them, now would not be the time to exchange them back to GBP. At some point this year we should be back in the low to mid 1.80's again. Short term (i.e. the next month or so) dont expect too much to happen in either direction.
The flip side is (as I said a month or so ago), if you have spare GBP and are planning on going to the wsop this year, then buy your USD now would be my advice - just not at a thieving bank/thomas cook or similar with their 25cent spread on the price. Daylight robbery !!
Open a currency account at your bank and exchange there. (more like dusk robbery then). Just make sure from the bank that you can withdraw cash in currency from their tills first though, otherwise you wont be able to do anythnig with it once you have bought it !!

Not worth the hassle of account opening for exchanges of a few hundred quid, but for a few thousand it deffo is.

[WellChief]

If we knew this we could get rich quick on the exchange markets. 

There is a certain 'Betfair forum' feel to that reply.

Do you post on there Chief?

Lol I do but hardly ever.  No need to throw a tantrum Camel.

[AndrewT]

I read somewhere (may even have been from one of the financial whizzs on here way back) that the strength of the dollar is founded on the fact that oil is traded in dollars. Therefore countries need to have dollars to buy and sell oil and, specifically, need to have reserves of dollars with which to buy their own currency in the event of a run on it by speculators in the market in order to protect the exchange rate.

However, if countries started trading oil in another currency (like euros) then the pressing need for dollars wouldn't be there, meaning countries would look to swap their dollars for euros, sending the dollar through the floor. So it is definitely in the USA's interest for all oil to be traded in dollars.

In 1999 Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) started trading oil in euros. The US invasion has put a stop to that.

Iran are planning to open an oil exchange this year which will trade oil in non-dollar currencies, primarily euros. The US want this stopped as well, which is why Iran has found itself in the 'Axis of Evil' despite the fact that its current president is nowhere near as hardline Islamic as previous leaders.

If you were to have a think about what a strong euro would mean for the pound, then you might reach conclusions about why British troops are in Iraq.

[/conspiracytheory]

[The Camel]

The reason for the question was that I'm at Atlantis for the PCA and Stars are letting you withdraw cash from your account.

This seems the only opportunity to get money from my account at exactly it's value (banks, credit cards, neteller always nick a %) and I wondeed if it was worth withdrawing money for WPT and WSOP events later in the year now.

Cheers for the responses.

[boldie]

I read somewhere (may even have been from one of the financial whizzs on here way back) that the strength of the dollar is founded on the fact that oil is traded in dollars. Therefore countries need to have dollars to buy and sell oil and, specifically, need to have reserves of dollars with which to buy their own currency in the event of a run on it by speculators in the market in order to protect the exchange rate.

However, if countries started trading oil in another currency (like euros) then the pressing need for dollars wouldn't be there, meaning countries would look to swap their dollars for euros, sending the dollar through the floor. So it is definitely in the USA's interest for all oil to be traded in dollars.

In 1999 Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) started trading oil in euros. The US invasion has put a stop to that.

Iran are planning to open an oil exchange this year which will trade oil in non-dollar currencies, primarily euros. The US want this stopped as well, which is why Iran has found itself in the 'Axis of Evil' despite the fact that its current president is nowhere near as hardline Islamic as previous leaders.

If you were to have a think about what a strong euro would mean for the pound, then you might reach conclusions about why British troops are in Iraq.

[/conspiracytheory]

yep..that's my opinion on it.

I once again (as I do everytime this is brought up) advise you to googlevideo Robert Newmans; Brief History of Oil.

It is a stand up show/ history lesson..but he also bring up the whole "which currency will we use for trading Oil" he does it in a way that is funny aswell though...and that way most people can understand why exactly it is not surprising America HAD TO (from their perspective) go to war with Iraq

[Rod Paradise]

Not the daftest conspiracy theory, add to it the American agitation (including a US sponsored coup) over Chavez in Venzuela - he's already threatened to move to the Euro.

[boldie]

Not the daftest conspiracy theory, add to it the American agitation (including a US sponsored coup) over Chavez in Venzuela - he's already threatened to move to the Euro.

yes Chavez (right before the war on Iraq) was actually president of OPEC and one of the things on the agenda for that years OPEC meeting was "THE SWITCH FROM DOLLARS TO ERUO'S". Simply put?..That could not be allowed.

This was a previous post on this forum about the subject although I thought the original thread was longer..I might be mistaken though.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=17467.msg357862#msg357862

[NEVES]

I read somewhere (may even have been from one of the financial whizzs on here way back) that the strength of the dollar is founded on the fact that oil is traded in dollars. Therefore countries need to have dollars to buy and sell oil and, specifically, need to have reserves of dollars with which to buy their own currency in the event of a run on it by speculators in the market in order to protect the exchange rate.

However, if countries started trading oil in another currency (like euros) then the pressing need for dollars wouldn't be there, meaning countries would look to swap their dollars for euros, sending the dollar through the floor. So it is definitely in the USA's interest for all oil to be traded in dollars.

In 1999 Iraq (2nd largest oil reserves in the world) started trading oil in euros. The US invasion has put a stop to that.

Iran are planning to open an oil exchange this year which will trade oil in non-dollar currencies, primarily euros. The US want this stopped as well, which is why Iran has found itself in the 'Axis of Evil' despite the fact that its current president is nowhere near as hardline Islamic as previous leaders.

If you were to have a think about what a strong euro would mean for the pound, then you might reach conclusions about why British troops are in Iraq.

[/conspiracytheory]

[AndrewT]

I have one client in particular who has in excess of $500,000 in the bank - bearing no interest (although I am working on this). So far this financial year, £11,000 has been lost due to currency exchange rate.

With a client of mine with in excess of $1mill , the dollar rate is fairly high up on their agenda!!

Looks like your client has had a good month Paul.

[Rod Paradise]

Not the daftest conspiracy theory, add to it the American agitation (including a US sponsored coup) over Chavez in Venzuela - he's already threatened to move to the Euro.

yes Chavez (right before the war on Iraq) was actually president of OPEC and one of the things on the agenda for that years OPEC meeting was "THE SWITCH FROM DOLLARS TO ERUO'S". Simply put?..That could not be allowed.

This was a previous post on this forum about the subject although I thought the original thread was longer..I might be mistaken though.

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=17467.msg357862#msg357862

Any coincidence that the software manufacturer who makes the training games for the US militrary has launched one which is an invasion of Venezuela? Or that the US keep describing him as a dictator when the elections have been under more scrutiny (and the results deemed more trustworthy) than the US's?

Of course Chavez rubbing the republicans' noses in it by supplying cheap heating oil to the poor of New York was absolute comic genius. The Yank's will have him killed soon (it's already been suggested).

[The Rivercard]

OK

Maybe the craziest prediction on here but.....based on the fact that I think the U/K economy is over valued and that debt is going to start badly hurting the consumer and therefore interest rates will reverse downwards mid year. The pound will slowly sink to 1.85 by may and then drop down to 1.75 by september. I may hit 1.60 before ending on 1.70

If the consumer stops spending then the value of the pound will  become more of an issue.

[ItsMrAlex2u]

Forgot the info, will post it tomorrow.

[Div]

The Chinese will have a big say in things too. If they decide to start holding more of their currency reserves in Euros, or even Sterling, the dollar will suffer.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,170-2536023,00.html

[Irishdenis]

Hi Keith

We trade about 70% of deals in dollars. We forward purchase up to six months in advance. Our latest rates are 1.91  -  1.96  If you check Barclays they have a very wide spread at the moment. When the rate was 1.97 pre xmas they were giving 1.88     Hold your nerve mate. As long as no new conflict in the Gulf then two for one will not be broken