The dollar...?

[SupaMonkey]

Israel is looking at using nuclear bunker busters to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities...thismilitarily makes sense as it's the best way to destroy them. Of course the explosions would take place underground providing the guiding missiles are all accurate but it's a trciky thing to do without everyone looking at it as a nuclear strike...especially everyone in the region.

Yes, i learnt today they have/are building 500 of them.

[thetank]

I know, which is why I'm happy to take it off the board. I'll create another so the  eaters can watch if need be.

A no-(ass)holes barred steel cage forum.

Where the wives of Stepford go to let their hair down.

Blonde UNCUT, too hot for TK

[Rod Paradise]

I know, which is why I'm happy to take it off the board. I'll create another so the  eaters can watch if need be.

A no-(ass)holes barred steel cage forum.

Where the wives of Stepford go to let their hair down.

Blonde UNCUT, too hot for TK

LOL - assholes in the ring

[nirvana]

In America, you can go to places like this http://www.wayside.org/ and get a New England Clam Chowder and lobster pie.

Now the taste is good, y'understand, but, here's the rub (that's shakespearo to you my droogs), the dollar got so toy town you can get two helpings if'n yr a bit hungry and it costs about 53 english pennies.

And when people say 'djeet ?' you can reply, ' I ate heartily, but now I require a bevvy'

O Say ! can you see, .......

[MadYank]

To Rod:

I had a long angy reply here but I have deleted it. I have decided you are not worthy of it.

Your comments culminating in the latest garbage, lead me to beilieve you are intelectually challenged, racist, and not worthy of ANY more of my time or effort.

One last thing, If you publicly question my integrity further WE WILL CARRY this on on a far more personal level.

Bad Day SIr!

[Rod Paradise]

To Rod:

I had a long angy reply here but I have deleted it. I have decided you are not worthy of it.

Your comments culminating in the latest garbage, lead me to beilieve you are intelectually challenged, racist, and not worthy of ANY more of my time or effort.

One last thing, If you publicly question my integrity further WE WILL CARRY this on on a far more personal level.

Bad Day SIr!

I think you just did it far better than I could.

Good day to you Sir 

[byronkincaid]

interest rates went up today which is likely to make the pound even stronger

[patman]

To Rod:

Your comments culminating in the latest garbage, lead me to beilieve you are intelectually challenged, racist, and not worthy of ANY more of my time or effort.

One last thing, If you publicly question my integrity further WE WILL CARRY this on on a far more personal level.

Bad Day SIr!

this is very unblonde and unnecessary chap...have a beer and relax...

[SupaMonkey]

I have some market commentary from thr RBS FX Strategist below which may or may not be of interest. It is long and will bore most people senseless. The main point is there is little or no fundemantal economic reason for USD to be at the level it is. A correction is inevitable back to the 1.80 mark at some point.

Their forecast rates are :
March 1.83
Jun 1.84
Sep 1.85
Dec 1.86

They can obviously be completely wrong and have been in the past but it is fair to say that this guy is far more qualified than any of us to predict and comment and GBP/USD !

The first section is actually from some of his November comments but its still basically relevant. The rest is From Dec.

(The Dec one is in PDF so I am going to have to type that one out so excuse typos please)

Nov:
While we still see some downside potential for the USD in the very short run, with the 2004 high in GBP/USD an obvious target, there is still very little news behind current USD weakness, and the comments from the Fed and the MPC both suggest that there is little monetary policy basis for the rise in sterling. The Fed have been highlighting that the risks are weighted on the upside for rates because of the high level of US inflation, but the market is still pricing in 2 ½ 25bp rate cuts by the end of 2007. While the general tone from the MPC has been hawkish, rates have been raised twice in the last two quarters and dissent has been increasing, so the pricing of a 50% chance of another move in February looks more dubious. In the bigger picture, we expect no change in UK rates and a rise in US rates next year, so there should be scope for a decline in GBP/USD if this is even half right and the market moderates its declining US rate view.

GBP/USD is testing the 2004 highs, but the arguments in favour of sterling are far less clear than they were in 2004. Back then, interest rate spreads were more in sterling’s favour than at any time since 1992. Now they are less in sterling’s favour than at any time since 2002, when cable was below 1.60. In real terms, spreads are even less favourable. The main explanations for sterling strength are a combination of central bank diversification, M&A inflow and low volatility fuelled carry trades being put on against European currencies and the yen. While these factors may remain to some extent going forward, they are likely to diminish as time goes on.


Dec: (I am taking extracts from this, if anyone wants the whole doc, PM me and I will email it to you)
While GBP strength can be explained in terms of flows, the high level of GBP/USD is harder to justify when the fundamentals are closely examined.

In reality the UK and US economies remain similar in structure. Many of the reasons advanced for long term USD weakness are also reasons for weakness in GBP. The main difference between the two is the USD's position as the worlds major reserve currency. We dont see this as sufficient reason for a sustained mis-pricing of sterling even though it seems likely to sustain sterling strength for some time longer.

Most of the strength of GBP/USD has actually been about USD weakness and in the absence of dramatic UK news, a general reversal of USD weakness is likely at some point.

From a long run perspective the biggest suprise about the current strength of GBP/USD is the lack of any real interest rate support for the move. The previous epsidoes in the last 20 years when GBP/USD ventured above 1.90 were typically supported by a big move in interest rate spreads between the 2 economies.

There is then a lot more around trade factors etc which will be of no interest I am sure and will take me too long to type !


PM me if you want the 4 pager emailed to you

Interesting this, the gbp/jpy has moved 800 pips in favour of the pound in the last week which gives weight to the carry trading argument. If this is the case, then you can be sure that people are going to be reluctant to ditch the pound (i.e. some strong economic data needs to come out of japan or their bank needs to hike their interest rate). At the same time, the pound made 400 pips against the dollar and euro has lost value against the dollar. Hence, it seems that the gbp/usd is where it is because of the pound's strength rather than the dollar's weakness (or lack of).

Personally i can't see any big movement coming until the end of the 1st quarter, but that's just my opinion. In fact, if i had any money, i would be getting into gbp/jpy now.

Hope this helps.

[SupaMonkey]

Scap that, i'm talking out of my arse. I've just noticed that the bank of japan has an interest rate announcement on wednesday. If they raise interest rates then the pound is very likely to fall.

[SupaMonkey]

Right, just in case anyone is interested.

The bank of japan didn't raise the interest rates last night and this caused the pound to strengthen against the yen and the $. There has been some consolidation (i.e. the price has dropped) since 8am (when the uk traders woke up) however the lack of interest rate move caused to gbp/usd to go up to 1.9775 before traders started taking their profits. Anyway, i learnt that the bank of japan meet every month to decide if they're gonna put up the interest rates so i can't see the pound weakening within the next month.

Hope this is of some use to someone.

[boldie]

Right, just in case anyone is interested.

The bank of japan didn't raise the interest rates last night and this caused the pound to strengthen against the yen and the $. There has been some consolidation (i.e. the price has dropped) since 8am (when the uk traders woke up) however the lack of interest rate move caused to gbp/usd to go up to 1.9775 before traders started taking their profits. Anyway, i learnt that the bank of japan meet every month to decide if they're gonna put up the interest rates so i can't see the pound weakening within the next month.

Hope this is of some use to someone.

I blame the Yanks  

[MadYank]

I blame the Yanks  

Click to see full-size image.

Consider yourself duly flamed!

[M3boy]

Interesting article today re OPEC.

They are starting to move their assets FROM dollars TO euro's.

That tells me they are not very confident of keeping oil trading in dollars rather than euros - if that happens, the dollar will hit REAL bad times.

Does OPEC know something we dont?

[boldie]

Interesting article today re OPEC.

They are starting to move their assets FROM dollars TO euro's.

That tells me they are not very confident of keeping oil trading in dollars rather than euros - if that happens, the dollar will hit REAL bad times.

Does OPEC know something we dont?

Well most of them do support the right God but I don't think they know about the money

It's a political thing, the switch to the Euro. Sure there might be some economic benefits but the main one is political.