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Poker Hand Analysis
U be Zeus
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Topic: U be Zeus (Read 3695 times)
thetank
Hero Member
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Posts: 19278
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #15 on:
January 12, 2007, 01:18:16 PM »
Good answers (I think), my thoughts, in the post morterm of the hypothetical, were that a raise would be the way to go unless the 3rd player had 1000 or less.
Quote from: boldie on January 12, 2007, 12:35:35 PM
Ah the easy climbing a place option. I start to go for winning the tourney. And although a push could get you knocked out in 3rd when 2nd is justabout guaranteed when someone has less then a BB left. I will mainly think of winning here. I still push and would hope to assuremyself a big chiplead HU.
Too true that the passive laddering to second is a bad tactic, and tournament survival is rarely a concern when playing 3 handed. You are already in the money. The 20% difference between 1st and 2nd is twice the 10% difference between 2nd and 3rd. You rarely fold to re-raises pre-flop, or fail to make value calls at this stage of the tournament.
That being said, this case is fundamentally different. We are always going to go to a showdown whatever happens (the least we can do is call), so it's not about the the whole pot here. It's the value of the chips we may win from the raise alone, and we only get them if our opponent's hand is good enough to call
and
our hand is best.
As an educated guess, I think 20% of the time we're beat.
Of the remaining 80% when we win, 20% of the time your opponent was bluffing (or a tight nut) and we won't get that crying call.
So value wise, I'm looking at the move winning us the 2k 60% of the time, the trade off being running a 20% chance of going bust.
«
Last Edit: January 12, 2007, 01:33:24 PM by thetank
»
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
thetank
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Posts: 19278
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #16 on:
January 12, 2007, 01:23:20 PM »
Thus far we've got in the
Q4
camp.
Boldie 0 (always raises regardless of 3rd players stack)
Rookie 600 (will call if 3rd player has under 600, raise if over)
thetank 1,000 (will call if 3rd player has under 1,000, raise if over)
Any more ideas? I'll leave it up for the afternoon before I come back and reveal what actually transpired in the hands conclusion.
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SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #17 on:
January 12, 2007, 03:05:45 PM »
Tank, what level of stt is this? (you multi-table at $3 right).
Quote from: thetank on January 12, 2007, 11:46:17 AM
I think it's got to be a raise too. You have just hit your money card.
There is a question when it comes to hands like this....will a worse hand pay you off.
19 out of 20 opponents I think would make a crying (or an insta) call with the solitary Ace, so I think the answer is yes, you will get payed off when ahead.
I raise in the above situation (Q1), I raise for Q2 too.
Q3.
Do you raise if the 3rd player has only 25 chips remaining?
If you answer no here, but raised in either Q1 or Q2 or both, I would be interested in your opinion of Q4.
Q4.
You raise when seasons5 (the 3rd player) has 2,000 chips and/or 5,000 chips. You didn't when he has just 25 chips.
Hypothetically, what is the largest number of chips seasons5 could have, where you would still decline the option to raise the river?
Do you even get in the hand if the BB has 25 chips?
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thetank
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Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #18 on:
January 12, 2007, 03:17:46 PM »
It's a $50 tournie.
The river scenario is a hypothetical one, with the non involved player having just 25 chips. We're not worrying too much as to the circumstances by which the river situation came to be (fair point though)
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Horneris
#5 BH
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Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #19 on:
January 12, 2007, 04:09:57 PM »
Q1. Yes, he probably has A 10, A 9, A 7, A 5. Bad luck if he has A 8 or A 6 sooted, and as you say you just hit your money card and if he has the ace he will pay you off.
Q2. Id still raise if the other player has 2k left.
Q3/4. No, id just flat call if the other player had 500 or less left.
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thetank
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Posts: 19278
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #20 on:
January 12, 2007, 04:29:43 PM »
Ok, here's how the actual hand ended.
Son0fZeus called 900
Showdown!
Seat 1 : Son0fZeus has
Seat 7 : dollarmoney has
(Horneris' first guess)
dollarmoney has Pair: Aces
Seat 1 : Son0fZeus has
Son0fZeus has Two Pair: Kings and Jacks
Son0fZeus wins 4,900 with Two Pair: Kings and Jacks
Hand is over.
Very poor, very weak play from me. End of night fatigue slowed my thinking so much that I was running out of time and clicked on the default safe option.
The suggestions for the other players stack to warrant just a flat call ranged from 0 to 600
Seat 9 : seasons5 has $5,140
So ashamed of my play, just had to post it.
«
Last Edit: January 12, 2007, 04:44:27 PM by thetank
»
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Royal Flush
Hero Member
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Posts: 22690
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #21 on:
January 12, 2007, 06:36:23 PM »
Insta call
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
Rookie (Rodney)
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Posts: 12991
ISHIKAWAAAAAAAAA
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #22 on:
January 12, 2007, 06:36:59 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on January 12, 2007, 06:36:23 PM
Insta call
lol 2 to go..
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HI HELEN!
Ginger
Queen of Purple
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Posts: 3969
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #23 on:
January 12, 2007, 06:40:46 PM »
Quote from: RookieITB on January 12, 2007, 06:36:59 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on January 12, 2007, 06:36:23 PM
Insta call
lol 2 to go..
Phew, I had him pegged for the top 2 categories!
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Posts: 8039
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #24 on:
January 14, 2007, 03:27:42 AM »
You hit your card, he has checked his ace on the flop. The chips you earn from his crying call make up for the times when ur beat.
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Posts: 8039
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #25 on:
January 14, 2007, 03:29:52 AM »
You hit your card, he has checked his ace on the flop. The chips you earn from his crying call make up for the times when ur beat.
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SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: U be Zeus
«
Reply #26 on:
January 14, 2007, 04:40:46 PM »
Tell us again alex.
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