Heads up, end of SNG

[pswnio]

You have 6500 chips, opponent 2500. Blinds 150/300. Becomes clear that he's not going to use positional advantage when SB - he's going to move all in with about 2/3 of his hands. He's shown one of them - K5. On the bubble he was v tight pre flop. Appears to have changed gears.

What's your calling range here?

[Longy]

Should be calling about top 40% which is 22+,A2+,K3o+,K2s+,Q8o+,Q5s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s. This is mathematically the correct answer.

[Royal Flush]

Should be calling about top 40% which is 22+,A2+,K3o+,K2s+,Q8o+,Q5s+,J9o+,J8s+,T9s. This is mathematically the correct answer.

Why?

You can wait for better than top 40% and let him nick a few blinds.

[pswnio]

What would you wait for, Flushy?

[Longy]

Yes in theory you could wait. At this level our opponent has than 10 bb's and is pushing wide as he should. This situation now approximates to an ICM (independent chip model) situation.

Given a 50/30/20 payout structure. If he is pushing top 66% you are correct to call with 41%.

This is what SNGPT spews back at you. If you are interested i will do the ICM calculation is as follows.

6500 hero 72% chance of winning ((.72*50)+(.28*30))= $44.4
2500 villan 28% chance of winning ((.28*30)+(.72*50))= $35.6

If we have a hand like 109s and we call we are 46.6% against villans range.

Equity of calling: 46.6% we win $50 but 54.4% we lose and have 4000 chips left which is $38.9 of the prize pool ((.466*50)+(.544*30))

So overall by calling on average we have $44.1 ((.466*$50)+(.544*38.9))

By folding we lose the 300 chips in front of us leaving us 6200 which works out to be 69% of the prize pool so ((.69*50)+(.31*30))= $43.8

So on average by calling with 109s we gain $.3.

[Royal Flush]

Yes in theory you could wait. At this level our opponent has than 10 bb's and is pushing wide as he should. This situation now approximates to an ICM (independent chip model) situation.

Given a 50/30/20 payout structure. If he is pushing top 66% you are correct to call with 41%.

This is what SNGPT spews back at you. If you are interested i will do the ICM calculation is as follows.

6500 hero 72% chance of winning ((.72*50)+(.28*30))= $44.4
2500 villan 28% chance of winning ((.28*30)+(.72*50))= $35.6

If we have a hand like 109s and we call we are 46.6% against villans range.

Equity of calling: 46.6% we win $50 but 54.4% we lose and have 4000 chips left which is $38.9 of the prize pool ((.466*50)+(.544*30))

So overall by calling on average we have $44.1 ((.466*$50)+(.544*38.9))

By folding we lose the 300 chips in front of us leaving us 6200 which works out to be 69% of the prize pool so ((.69*50)+(.31*30))= $43.8

So on average by calling with 109s we gain $.3.

That ignores the fact you can just raise the next hand.....

[boldie]

yes indeed...your boy might be pushing with everything BUT is he calling with everything? Find a half decent hand (sooted connectors or a decent King or even a weak Ace) and push and see what he does.
He considers himself to be the agressor now and thinks you're weak, that's why he pushes with 2/3's of his hands..it's because he can get away with it and he reckons he only needs one double up.

You have to bet against guys like this and not give up your chips easily, that's what HU at this stage is all about. Sure you could find yourself running into a hand or he could get lucky but that's the way it goes.
It's not about what you can call with, it's what you can bet with. You can call with any hand that has a significant number of outs (sooted connectors etc) or is a good starting hand already. But while you wait for such a hand you can bet with anything after you've established how he acts when pushed around himself.

[Longy]

Yes in theory you could wait. At this level our opponent has than 10 bb's and is pushing wide as he should. This situation now approximates to an ICM (independent chip model) situation.

Given a 50/30/20 payout structure. If he is pushing top 66% you are correct to call with 41%.

This is what SNGPT spews back at you. If you are interested i will do the ICM calculation is as follows.

6500 hero 72% chance of winning ((.72*50)+(.28*30))= $44.4
2500 villan 28% chance of winning ((.28*30)+(.72*50))= $35.6

If we have a hand like 109s and we call we are 46.6% against villans range.

Equity of calling: 46.6% we win $50 but 54.4% we lose and have 4000 chips left which is $38.9 of the prize pool ((.466*50)+(.544*30))

So overall by calling on average we have $44.1 ((.466*$50)+(.544*38.9))

By folding we lose the 300 chips in front of us leaving us 6200 which works out to be 69% of the prize pool so ((.69*50)+(.31*30))= $43.8

So on average by calling with 109s we gain $.3.

That ignores the fact you can just raise the next hand.....

It also ignores the fact that your opponent wakes up with aces in the bb next hand.

[Royal Flush]

Yes in theory you could wait. At this level our opponent has than 10 bb's and is pushing wide as he should. This situation now approximates to an ICM (independent chip model) situation.

Given a 50/30/20 payout structure. If he is pushing top 66% you are correct to call with 41%.

This is what SNGPT spews back at you. If you are interested i will do the ICM calculation is as follows.

6500 hero 72% chance of winning ((.72*50)+(.28*30))= $44.4
2500 villan 28% chance of winning ((.28*30)+(.72*50))= $35.6

If we have a hand like 109s and we call we are 46.6% against villans range.

Equity of calling: 46.6% we win $50 but 54.4% we lose and have 4000 chips left which is $38.9 of the prize pool ((.466*50)+(.544*30))

So overall by calling on average we have $44.1 ((.466*$50)+(.544*38.9))

By folding we lose the 300 chips in front of us leaving us 6200 which works out to be 69% of the prize pool so ((.69*50)+(.31*30))= $43.8

So on average by calling with 109s we gain $.3.

That ignores the fact you can just raise the next hand.....

It also ignores the fact that your opponent wakes up with aces in the bb next hand.

You are still 20%......

[dino1980]

I found this article an interesting read. And have used it before at the end of sit and gos.

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15250