looking at the fight card for UFC 78 I see most of the favourites winning.
Houston Alexander should beat Thiago Silva
I think Ed Herman should beat David Terrell
Karo Perisian is a favourite over Ryo Chonan
On the under card, Chris Lytle should beat Thiago Alves
and Jason Lauzon should beat Jason Reinhardt
I think the upset will come in the main event, Michael Bisping v Rashad Evans.
Evans is a decent fighter. In his last outing he got a controversial draw against Tito Ortiz. A fight that people generally thought he won, and I agree. He was much better than Ortiz on the night and given that only losses to Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell spoil a record of 11 wins since 2000. That's an impressive result for Evans, even if he didn't actually get the win
Bisping, however, has just had a controversial win over Matt Hamill. most US fans think Hamill won the fight, but I disagree with this. He expected Hamill to go straight for the takedown as he's technically a pretty shite striker. As a world class wrestler with what the americans charmingly call 'tard strength (
) that would have seemed the most likely tactic. Instead, Hamill used his strength and charged into a striking war. Bispings timing was poor in round 1 and he got badly knocked about. Rounds two and three he managed to stay at longer range and pick Hamill off with long jab / crosses and kicks but he was fighting backing off and at the end of the fight he was the one with the messed up face. add in the sympathy card because of Hamill being profoundly deaf (not that I'm suggesting HE uses that as an excuse, I'm not) and the public are left thinking Bisping was wrong to get the tick in the win column.
What Hamill brought to the table was his superior physical strength which he surprisingly chose to utilise mostly on his feet, rather than wrestling, which is his strength.
Rashad Evans is also a great Wrestler. Better than Hamill probably. BUT he's not as physically strong. Striking, Bisping has a big advantage.
Evans is the shorter fighter so I think he's going to have trouble getting Bisping to the mat. He's going to have to exchange on their feet and hope to land a big shot and then, if he can get Bisping stunned, go for the take down.
I think he'll struggle to land that shot and Bisping will pick him off. Evans won't charge, bull-like as Hamill did. Evans will try and stalk and spring into exchanges and Bispings stand up will be too good.
IF Evans does manage a take down one of thes things will happen.
1 - Bisping will be able to hold him and get the ref to stand them up, because Bisping is stronger.
2 - Bisping will reverse the position on the way down and land on top. If Evans ends up on his back, I think he's in big trouble. Wrestlers like Evans on their back are like tortoises. Add Bisping on top pounding down and he's in a very bad spot.
3 - If Evans gets sloppy on top, Bisping could grab an arm bar, or even scramble for Evans' back. Although it's not his strength, but Bisping does have some Ju Jitsu and this might be a rare occasion where he has the best Ju Jitsu in the match up.
All in all, I think Bisping has more ways to win than Evans. Evans is extremely unlikely to KO Bisping. Evans has no chance of submitting Bisping. Ground and pound is his only way to win.
People have forgotten how dominant Bisping was in the Ultimate Fighter series he won. With the exception of Hamill, no-one else was even close to him.
with Bisping trading at 2.22 and likely to go higher, that's where my money is going. I think I'll ask for 2.5 on Betfair and then, closer to fight time, see if I can get some action up near 2.8 or beyond.
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