Counting Out's

[bundle]

OK I need some help here,

 again while playing at a local poker club here. A player at the table see's the flop after someone goes all in he say's "I have to call, I've got 30 Outs. the table was 10 handed and with the flop and burn only left 28 cards in the deck, He called and flipped over openend straight draw and the 4 flush. I said thats 15 out's he says its 30 I got it twice with the turn and river still to come and insisted it was 30 out, i said there is only 28 cards left, how can you have 30 outs, I understand you got 15 outs and to shots at hitting, but he wasnt having any of it, and the dealer agreed with him saying no he has got 30 out's. I didnt argue because i count my out's my way. so can you please tell me how you guy's count out's, am i folding with 6 out's when really i had 12?

[Dewi_cool]

Ithink your right, however the odds of hitting the out increase because of the 2 cards to come, did he hit the out by the way

[Royal Flush]

what he means is he has 2 chances of hitting 1 of 15 cards. Instead of working out odds of 15 outs x 2 he just works out odds of hitting 30 outs. Its the same thing really.

Its irrelvant about what other cards are gone. There are 7 known cards, so 45 unknown cards, his 15 cards are from that 45.

[bundle]

No he did't dewi, THIS IS WHAT MADE MY POINT EVEN STRONGER, if he had 30 out's and 28 cards in the deck he couldnt lose..BUT HE DID LOSE... even the dealer was saying no he had 30 out's, it was just not getting through to both of them and i didnt push because i really wasnt sure the right way to count them. my way just seemed right

ok so am i counting my out's the right way, is this how you guy's and the pro's count. IE 15 out's ok missed on the turn still 15 out's ?

[ariston]

Use the rule of four on the flop. Count how many cards make your hand and multiply by 4- that will give you your % chance of winning (eg if you have 13 or more outs you are favourite against any holding). On the turn multiply by 2.
If you have 9 outs (flush draw no overcards) you are 36% to win (if money goes in on flop).

[bundle]

Thanks ariston

That is a very easy way to remember.

much appreciated

[Royal Flush]

bundle i fail to see how you figure 28 cards left? Surely its 45....

[RED-DOG]

He means actual cards, not 'unseen' cards

[bundle]

yeah well like i said im not really sure how to count them.

 so this is how i did it, 10 players 20 cards gone from deck, 3 on the flop and burn leaves 28 cards to draw from.

I might well have done this the wrong way, thats why im asking you guys for your help, so i can better understand

Cheers

[tikay]

Put simply bundle, you count ALL cards not seen, not the number of cards left. That is the pretty universal way of calculating "outs", together with the "rule of 4" that Ariston noted, which is probably easier to work with..

[Gamblor21]

counting outs thats where i'm going wrong!!!!!

[bundle]

ok thank's guy's

 Im still learning and this all help's

[tikay]

We are ALL still learning, bundle.

[bundle]

Yes we are, However some of us are way behind LOL

[Royal Flush]

yes bundle you are going massively wrong with that way of working it out.

Dont forget some of the players would have folded some of his outs. Seeing as we dont know who folded what we have to go by unseen cards, there were 45 unseen cards.