Odds vs Probability of it happening (8 Royal Flushes vs Lottery Win)

[tikay]

Another interesting odds fact for you.

Did you know, you have more chance of guessing a complete strangers telephone number than winning the lottery!!

Still wanna spend that £1 ?

...of which, I seem to recall, about 30p is paid out n Prize money......

The Lottery's PR machine is nothing short of scandalous.

[ysoglum?]

Odds of a Royal Flush getting hit are dramatically improved if you lock him in a room with Kev and RED-DOG.

Oi!!
You knicked my joke.
What a f**** liberty! :-)

[thetank]

...of which, I seem to recall, about 30p is paid out n Prize money......

The Lottery's PR machine is nothing short of scandalous.

Breakdown of the lottery pound.....

50p goes to the prize pool (Syme was correct earlier)
28p goes to good causes
12p goes to the government in lottery duty
5p goes to the newsagent who sells the ticket
4.5p goes to Camelot for "operating expenses" (bit dodgy this)
0.5p goes to Camelot's shareholders.


The lottery boasts that with 40p in every pound (28p + 12p) they return a higher proportion of lottery revenue to society than any other major lottery operator in the world.

[tikay]

...of which, I seem to recall, about 30p is paid out n Prize money......

The Lottery's PR machine is nothing short of scandalous.

Breakdown of the lottery pound.....

50p goes to the prize pool (Syme was correct earlier)
28p goes to good causes
12p goes to the government in lottery duty
5p goes to the newsagent who sells the ticket
4.5p goes to Camelot for "operating expenses" (bit dodgy this)
0.5p goes to Camelot's shareholders.


The lottery boasts that with 40p in every pound (28p + 12p) they return a higher proportion of lottery revenue to society than any other major lottery operator in the world.

And if your Lottey Ticket loses, youi have lost your £1.

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?

[CrestOfaWave]

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?
[/quote]


nsansi is still going and they now have a 2nd jackpot of £1m each month. By investing here you are sacrificing interest but gaining on the wins from month to month. I use this scheme as one of my saving pots. The better value is definitely the Premium bond scheme - but still the 'dream' of snagging a decent windfall is there for everyone to take a punt at.

[tikay]

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?

nsansi is still going and they now have a 2nd jackpot of £1m each month. By investing here you are sacrificing interest but gaining on the wins from month to month. I use this scheme as one of my saving pots. The better value is definitely the Premium bond scheme - but still the 'dream' of snagging a decent windfall is there for everyone to take a punt at.
[/quote]

It just astonishes me that people cannot see this, & fall for the Lottery Marketing. Does the Lottery fall under the auspices of the Gaming Commission? Surely not, if it did, I'd expect them to say "The Lottery is poor value", exactly in the manner that they "protect players from themselves" in Blackjack.

[CrestOfaWave]

Whereas, in the good old days of Premium Bonds, when you failed to win, you still had your £1......and it went in to the next draw, & the next one, forever. If, after going into 50 or 60 draws, you had not won, you can get your £1 back!

Which is the better value?

nsansi is still going and they now have a 2nd jackpot of £1m each month. By investing here you are sacrificing interest but gaining on the wins from month to month. I use this scheme as one of my saving pots. The better value is definitely the Premium bond scheme - but still the 'dream' of snagging a decent windfall is there for everyone to take a punt at.

It just astonishes me that people cannot see this, & fall for the Lottery Marketing. Does the Lottery fall under the auspices of the Gaming Commission? Surely not, if it did, I'd expect them to say "The Lottery is poor value", exactly in the manner that they "protect players from themselves" in Blackjack.
[/quote]


I am glad I did this post as it has really helped evaluate where I am chucking money away. Next is to stop the holes in my poker game - cheers Tikay.

[Smart Money]

The 650000/1 is based on 5 card stud i believe, in hold em it is more likely. As in effect we are picking 5 from 7, if my memory of combination and permutations is right this cuts the odds by about 21 i think which is (7!/ (5!*2!)). So about 30000/1 this is by the river.

Yes, 650,000/1 is the odds of hitting a Royal Flush with just 5 cards. (I.e. the probability of flopping a Royal in Hold 'Em.)

I've had 7-8 Royals in the last 2 years online, but I've played over 1,000,000+ hands over that time (6-8 tables x 4-5 hours/day)

Your actual probabilty of hitting a Royal is 30,000/1 x "the subjective probability that you will have seen a flop and stayed in the hand until the river" and this will obvious depend on several factors (pre-flop requirements, post-flop "looseness", opponents, number of players at table, cash/tournament, etc.)

Therefore, I would guess that somewhere around 150,000/1 would be a good estimate for most players' chances of hitting a Royal on any one particular hand.

As someone else has already stated, the initial question is based on flawed assumptions and so makes little sense.

Make that 8-9 Royals....

Full Tilt Poker Game #2070639710: Table Jade Hills - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:34:36 ET - 2007/03/25
Seat 1: juicyjc ($217.95)
Seat 2: NicoretteGum ($217.15)
Seat 3: El Patron 222 ($195.35)
Seat 4: lildavid22 ($97.65)
Seat 5: PokerFace B ($242.45)
Seat 6: JHarr1219 ($200)
Seat 7: ctalb70057 ($104.10)
Seat 8: AFink93 ($97.15)
Seat 9: Narena ($229.55)
AFink93 posts the small blind of $1
Narena posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [ ]
juicyjc folds
NicoretteGum folds
El Patron 222 folds
lildavid22 folds
PokerFace B folds
JHarr1219 has 15 seconds left to act
JHarr1219 folds
ctalb70057 calls $2
AFink93 calls $1
Narena checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
AFink93 checks
Narena checks
ctalb70057 checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
AFink93 checks
Narena checks
ctalb70057 bets $6
AFink93 folds
Narena raises to $12
ctalb70057 calls $6
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Narena bets $28
ctalb70057 calls $28
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Narena shows [ ] (a Royal Flush)
ctalb70057 mucks
Narena wins the pot ($83) with a Royal Flush

[Smart Money]

And another....

Full Tilt Poker Game #2549579819: Table Los Padres - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:43:31 ET - 2007/05/31
Seat 1: GradHooker ($0), is sitting out
Seat 2: full_tilting ($769.05)
Seat 3: Narena ($303.40)
Seat 4: deadmonie4u ($199.60)
Seat 5: Metr ($40)
Seat 6: Kramzy ($200)
Seat 7: skeletor13 ($64.40)
Seat 8: NaMoo9 ($579.20)
Seat 9: directinglife ($56)
deadmonie4u posts the small blind of $1
Metr posts the big blind of $2
Kramzy posts $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [ ]
Kramzy checks
skeletor13 folds
NaMoo9 folds
directinglife folds
full_tilting folds
GradHooker adds $200
Narena calls $2
GradHooker has returned
deadmonie4u calls $1
Metr checks
*** FLOP *** [   ]
deadmonie4u checks
Metr checks
Kramzy checks
Narena checks
*** TURN *** [   ] []
deadmonie4u checks
Metr checks
Kramzy checks
Narena bets $6
deadmonie4u calls $6
Metr folds
Kramzy folds
*** RIVER *** [   ] []
deadmonie4u bets $12
Narena raises to $56
deadmonie4u folds
Uncalled bet of $44 returned to Narena
Narena shows [ ] (a Royal Flush)
Narena wins the pot ($41.80)

[Smart Money]

   Royal Flushes are so passe.....

Full Tilt Poker Game #2600795524: Table Vespertina - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:21:02 ET - 2007/06/06
Seat 1: tpack69 ($155.70)
Seat 2: Barney Gumble ($274.10)
Seat 3: Krusty Clown ($56.25)
Seat 4: jcm694 ($215.95)
Seat 5: Timbilo ($40)
Seat 6: taintpatrol ($291.30)
Seat 7: The Guok ($253)
Seat 8: ericberen ($192.90)
Seat 9: Narena ($200)
taintpatrol posts the small blind of $1
The Guok posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [ ]
ericberen folds
Narena calls $2
tpack69 folds
Barney Gumble folds
Krusty Clown folds
jcm694 calls $2
Timbilo folds
taintpatrol calls $1
The Guok checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
taintpatrol checks
The Guok checks
Narena checks
jcm694 checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
taintpatrol checks
The Guok checks
Narena bets $6
jcm694 folds
taintpatrol folds
The Guok folds
Uncalled bet of $6 returned to Narena
Narena shows [ ] (a Royal Flush)
Narena wins the pot ($7.60)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $8 | Rake $0.40
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: tpack69 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Barney Gumble didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Krusty Clown didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: jcm694 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Timbilo (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: taintpatrol (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: The Guok (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 8: ericberen didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Narena collected ($7.60)

[CrestOfaWave]

have you bought a ticket for the lottery this week ;-)

[Smart Money]

3rd one in the last 2 weeks....

Full Tilt Poker Game #2644098602: Table Stearman - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:37:42 ET - 2007/06/12
Seat 1: gtjack77 ($192.30)
Seat 2: TheSnake-28 ($324.15)
Seat 3: Narena ($286.25)
Seat 4: JoeChicago7 ($137.15), is sitting out
Seat 5: al_lupner ($200)
Seat 6: z85kra ($475.15)
Seat 7: Tha Wizzard ($136.25)
Seat 8: LBHOLDEM ($59.30)
Seat 9: Cold 4 AU ($70.70)
Narena posts the small blind of $1
al_lupner posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [ ]
z85kra has 15 seconds left to act
z85kra folds
Tha Wizzard folds
LBHOLDEM folds
Cold 4 AU calls $2
gtjack77 folds
TheSnake-28 folds
Narena calls $1
al_lupner checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Narena checks
al_lupner has 15 seconds left to act
al_lupner bets $5
Cold 4 AU calls $5
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena has requested TIME
Narena calls $5
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Narena checks
al_lupner checks
Cold 4 AU checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Narena bets $10
al_lupner folds
Cold 4 AU folds
Uncalled bet of $10 returned to Narena
Narena mucks
Narena wins the pot ($19.95)

[Ironside]

you make more royals than i make pairs

[CrestOfaWave]

you make more royals than i make pairs

amazing thats 3 in very quick succession.