Odds Question ....

[K9sixtwo]

Ok Its a simple question but I dont know the odds .

When the flop comes down so that you have 4 suited cards , I believe its about 35% that you will hit your fifth card and make your Flush ... I am working on the theory of 2 suited on board and two in the hand .

Now what are the odds that someone else will have two suited cards as well as yourself so that you are drawing to the same flush?? I am working on a 9 seater ..but the odds for six seats and three seats would be appreciated if any of you clever chappies or chapess's have them
                               Thanks
                                        K9

[tikay]

So your question really is "what are the odds of TWO players having 4 to the same flush after the flop?

Jeez. We need someone who knows something about poker to answer that. Anyone out there?

[Bongo]

Isn't it an odd question though?

Surely you're better off trying to figure it out by how they've played the hand so far than the general chance they may have it?

[AdamM]

perhaps k9 is trying to justify to himself playing any two suited cards or Ace rag suited? not judging, just a thought.

[tikay]

Hmm, two "observations" but no answers yet. Looks like K9 has thrown us a curve ball here.........

I generally take the view in Hold 'Em, unless the betting suggests otherwise, that if I've got a flush draw, then nobody else has. And if someone else has, then chances are the odds for both of us to hit are that much less. Which gets us neatly back to K9's question, without answering it, of course.

Come on guys, SOMEONE must know the answer.......

[Rupert]

Well you have seen 5 cards so there are 47 cards left in the deck that are unknowns.  4 of one suit are gone which leaves a remaining 9 of that suit.  The amount of players playing actually makes no difference to the odds as the probability of having 2 of those suited cards are fixed, unless of course you are colluding with some of the players in which case you know more information.  Given that the persons cards are random, i.e. they are playing any old shit, the probability is: (9/47 * 8/46) = 0.033302497687326549491211840888 or about just over 1 in 30.  Why?

[Bongo]

But if you have more people sat down the probability that at least one of them will have suited cards will be greater.

I tried to calculate it but it started to make my brain hurt keeping track of all the possibilities (e.g. if the first 8 people have no diamonds than player 9 has a much great chance: (9/31) * (8/30) = 7.75%).

[Rupert]

Yeah sorry i've errored, ok then lets assume that everyone sees the flop, fairly unrealistic assumption but it has to be made.  Probability of having 1 of the suit is 9/47, probability of having 2, (9/47 * 8/46).  With 9 people in the pot its just 9* that (that one of them has it), so about 9 in 30 or just under 1 in 3.  With 6 people in the pot, 6 in 30 or 1 in 5, 3 people in the pot, 3 in 30 or 1 in 10

[Rupert]

Should I give up?  I think i've done it completely wrong  must be tired!

[Bongo]

I think it's probably a good estimation, not 100% accurate but good enough?

I wait to be told i'm 100% wrong 

[K9sixtwo]

Ok ....Its really for my online play where all sorts of strange plays take place .... where I am in big blind with lets say 5 9 suited and there have been three or four calls but no raise. My small poker brain says to just call or to raise the bet two or so times (depending on how early in the tourney it is and how big my stack is)to see if its just others limping in anyone calls , theoretically,has got something...Its difficult to play some of these poeple online. Course if the flop then comes with two of the same suit .. I just start wondering on the odds of them having the same suit ...
                         K9

Ps Another way I could get this answered would be to send it in to Poker425's ask the expert section .

[Ironside]

Ps Another way I could get this answered would be to send it in to Poker425's ask the expert section .

they have an expert?

[K9sixtwo]

Apparently ...yes ... a very dapper Gent so I hear .

[snoopy1239]

It's one of those situations where you could potentially lose your whole stack. I don't know many pople who are able to let go of a small flush.