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Poker Hand Analysis
Its a mystery.....
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Topic: Its a mystery..... (Read 2818 times)
TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Its a mystery.....
«
on:
April 12, 2007, 06:42:28 PM »
So its 400-800 with a 25 running ante, 9 handed table
£500 NLHE Festival event
you are in SB
, extremely unpromising
20,000 chips
Mike Magee limps UTG, 25,000 chips
Ray Hammer limps UTG+1, 16,000 Chips
Paul Zimbler limps in CO, 30,000 chips
Richard Ashby limps on button 35,000 chips
I am completely mystified by this outbreak of limping but nonetheless,
4,475 in pot
400 to you to complete...
well you never know at 10-1 I might hit a perfect flop, I complete
BB checks, 16,000 or so
flop
check with a view to check fold in most scenarios
all check
turn
all check
river
this has given me, completely OOP, a mucky old two pair, no diamonds and counterfeited by any King out there
Magee, Zimbler, Ashby are all aggressive players but no one has shown me anything having had two rounds to bet
value bet?
if so how much into the 4,875 pot?
check call?
check fold?
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Indestructable
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Posts: 6485
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #1 on:
April 12, 2007, 06:50:09 PM »
No bets post flop or turn, possible trap but I would make pot size bet. I would then fold to any raise, but worth a punt to get the pot? (Having said that i would have probably bet on the turn.)
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #2 on:
April 12, 2007, 06:55:26 PM »
bet the turn, check the river.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
temp0r
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Posts: 683
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #3 on:
April 13, 2007, 12:20:50 AM »
couldn't be certain about no-one slow playing there. or maybe checking with a low flush. so check-call.
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Dewi_cool
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Dusk Till Dawn - It's like going home
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #4 on:
April 13, 2007, 01:08:32 AM »
turn
river
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The very last hand of the night goes to Dewi James, who finds ACES and talks Raymond O’Mahoney into calling his all-in preflop bet of 15k. “If I had AQ, I’d call!” says Dewi. Raymond calls holding pocket 66’s.
doubleup
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Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #5 on:
April 13, 2007, 09:57:36 AM »
I would be more than happy if this was checked round (there are more than 200 hands beating you), but I might call a smallish bet. So I check disinterestedly and watch the other players closely.
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #6 on:
April 13, 2007, 10:22:22 AM »
I'm with double up here. you can't lead out here. check and fold to any substantial action. there is nothing here for you you only have the Jack. If it was a really small bet made by someone on the button taht is the only bet on the river I might consider calling it..otherwise I'd want nothing to do with this hand.
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Graham C
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Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #7 on:
April 13, 2007, 12:15:23 PM »
I'd check/call if it's not too much.
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@silobass
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #8 on:
April 13, 2007, 06:45:18 PM »
Ok
The presence of 3 diamonds and one over-card on the flop are a source of worry for you, namely because you do not hold diamonds yourself.
Everyone else involved in this hand most probably feels the same way.
Although there are 4,475 chips in the pot each player has only contributed 800. As such they will not defend their limping contribution with much ferocity, particularly if they do not hold diamonds themselves.
When the turn comes another three I would be inclined to lead out with a small bet. Something in the region of 1200.
By betting small here you represent a slow-played flush or trip 3's. The small bet is convincing because it looks like you are trying to generate action. You are trying to pot build because you are the player with the made hand.
Like we said, the board is a worry. You small "please call me" bet only compounds that worry for anyone without a flopped flush. I don't think anyone checks the flop and calls this bet with a King.
I would not be surprised to see everyone fold here.
Importantly, your 1200 gets you some information, whereas checking and waiting for someone else to take a stab at the pot does not.
If you get one caller I would be thinking
or made flush.
So on the river I would bet 2400 and see what my opponent does.
probably folds. Made flush raises.
I think using your chips to pose the questions and put the board-connected worry into your opponents minds is a far better play than using them to check call.
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doubleup
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Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #9 on:
April 13, 2007, 07:29:08 PM »
Quote from: MANTIS01 on April 13, 2007, 06:45:18 PM
Ok
.....
...call.
summary - this scary board is a good bluffing opportunity.
(although we will never know whether we are actually bluffing, unless we get called)
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TightEnd
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Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #10 on:
April 13, 2007, 11:40:55 PM »
I checked the end intending to check call
It checked round and I won the pot
a bet on the turn was right I feel, hindsight notwithstanding
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By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
AlexMartin
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Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #11 on:
April 14, 2007, 03:20:05 AM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 13, 2007, 11:40:55 PM
I checked the end intending to check call
It checked round and I won the pot
a bet on the turn was right I feel, hindsight notwithstanding
Against that many players, i like the check call line. GL in ME Rich.
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johnbhoy76
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Posts: 309
It's f***in boring after a while without the cards
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #12 on:
April 14, 2007, 12:22:16 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 12, 2007, 06:42:28 PM
So its 400-800 with a 25 running ante, 9 handed table
£500 NLHE Festival event
you are in SB
, extremely unpromising
20,000 chips
Mike Magee limps UTG, 25,000 chips
Ray Hammer limps UTG+1, 16,000 Chips
Paul Zimbler limps in CO, 30,000 chips
Richard Ashby limps on button 35,000 chips
I am completely mystified by this outbreak of limping but nonetheless,
4,475 in pot
400 to you to complete...
well you never know at 10-1 I might hit a perfect flop, I complete
BB checks, 16,000 or so
flop
check with a view to check fold in most scenarios
all check
turn
all check
river
this has given me, completely OOP, a mucky old two pair, no diamonds and counterfeited by any King out there
Magee, Zimbler, Ashby are all aggressive players but no one has shown me anything having had two rounds to bet
value bet?
if so how much into the 4,875 pot?
check call?
check fold?
I think it's check call for me.
I'd honestly just have mucked pre-flop even given the 10-1 odds
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And yeah, I'd love to tell you all my problem
You're not from New York City, you're from Rotherham
So get off the bandwagon, and put down the handbook
Yeah, yeah, yeah
johnbhoy76
Sr. Member
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Posts: 309
It's f***in boring after a while without the cards
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #13 on:
April 14, 2007, 12:26:41 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on April 13, 2007, 11:40:55 PM
I checked the end intending to check call
It checked round and I won the pot
a bet on the turn was right I feel, hindsight notwithstanding
yeah I think you did the right thing there.
If you bet out you are opening the door for someone to bluff you off it with nothing.
In this case they'd probably all have folded if you bet out so you wouldn't have picked up any extra chips by betting here. By check caling you might have got someone to bluff off another 1000-1500 chips.
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And yeah, I'd love to tell you all my problem
You're not from New York City, you're from Rotherham
So get off the bandwagon, and put down the handbook
Yeah, yeah, yeah
MANTIS01
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6730
What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Its a mystery.....
«
Reply #14 on:
April 14, 2007, 03:51:58 PM »
Ok
Personally, I do not like the check-call mentality here, even though it does seem to be the general concensus.
Check-calling is reminiscent of cash-game play in my book.
The board is a scary one, this is true. But that fear is not exclusive to just you.
Everyone checks the flop. So either someone has flopped the flush (possible) or no-one else likes the board (probable).
I find that in situations like this, the pot is usually won by the player who takes the initiative and announces that HE is the one with the hand that everyone fears.
Your story-telling on the turn has additional plausibility because of your position. Leading out into the field with a small bet indicates strength here. The same move on the button after a second round of checking, or a larger bet, is not so convincing in my eyes.
Another plus point for value-betting this hand is that it is only a limped pot and so resistance will be low.
It is possible that the players behind you may not believe your story. But the presence of other players behind THEM works in your favour.
The REAL hand could still be out there so re-stealer's are shackled.
By taking the initiative you also get the chance to manage the size of the pot yourself. Betting 1200 on the turn and getting a couple of calls is far better than checking and calling a bet of 2400. By betting 1200 on the turn and then 2400 on the river you only put 3600 in, whilst giving yourself a chance to win the pot unchallenged. Checking and then calling a pot-sized bet on the river means you put more in, on someone else's terms, and can only win with the best hand.
Other players with this check-call mentality may well call your turn bet with A-J, Q-J or 10-J, with or without a diamond.
They would then probably be inclined to call your smallish river bet as well...after allowing you to outdraw them. A horrible way to get your chips in.
A pair of 4 's makes the same free money out of you that you made out of these guys if you are check-calling.
If you do get called on the river by the made flush ( no raise because the board was paired) you have still spent less and got more than if you check-called to the made flush.
The "more" you get for your money is that the next time you flop something big you lead out small into the field and get all the business you need.
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Tikay - "He has a proven track record in business, he is articulate, intelligent, & presents his cases well"
Claw75 - "Mantis is not only a blonde legend he's also very easy on the eye"
Outragous76 - "a really nice certainly intelligent guy"
taximan007 & Girgy85 & Celtic & Laxie - <3 Mantis
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