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Poll
Question: Call or Fold?
He could have 88-KK or a draw. wtf easy call
you've only put $8 in this pot people have been known to do this with a set. fold
er I dunno I just wanna see the results

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Author Topic: WTF?  (Read 4614 times)
Tragic
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« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2007, 10:00:45 AM »

Calling there is insanity...
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tantrum
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« Reply #31 on: May 22, 2007, 10:51:46 AM »

The reason why many push it here with the set is simple: it is so difficult for many to fold their overpairs....  That's why sets can be so profitable when one hits. or suited connectors for that matter. 
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JungleCat03
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« Reply #32 on: May 22, 2007, 11:02:15 AM »

equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    55.843%     54.73%    01.11%             23300          472.50   { KdKs }
Hand 1:    44.157%     43.05%    01.11%             18325          472.50   { TT+, 77, 33-22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As7s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, JsTs, 8s7s, 5s4s }

roughly correct? if you put 88 and 99 in I'm 63%.



I think that running ranges like this in this spot is slightly misleading as each possible hand shoved into pokerstove is deemed equally likely whereas I would be thinking he has a big spade draw or pr and fd much more often than many of the other hands such as smaller overpairs.

For instance, how often at the tables do you see a hand like TT just pushing a massive overbet like this into the pot? Probably not too often. Also given that he will re-raise rather than just flat call preflop with  KK QQ JJ TT a certain % of the time, this slightly reduces the probablity of these hands being in his range.

Equally i would think smaller fds would turn up far less often than combo fds like 45s or A5s which you are a dog to. Running correct ranges, weighted appropriately, to show your equity, I would guess you are usually the the wrong side of a coin flip against a standard player and I think you would need to know your opponent's habits quite well to call correctly here.

(PS Also I noticed that KJs and KQs are in your opponent's range in the example you ran which seems unlikely as you have the Kx Smiley )
« Last Edit: May 22, 2007, 11:13:34 AM by JungleCat03 » Logged

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« Reply #33 on: May 23, 2007, 05:42:42 AM »

You can break this situation down anyway you like, however I guarantee it is massive -EV to make a call here.

Besides, anyone pushing any sort of draw here is far more likely to check/jam than just chuck it all in as first to act. This important point seems to have been completely ignored. (Most sets would also act the same way of course, however they are not after the fold equity.)
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