HotW - 29th May

[NoflopsHomer]

Sorry about the HotW section for the last week or so, was incredibly difficult coming back from Brighton last weekend, and with Jen winning in Drogheda, I didn't get to bed on Sunday night and ended up sleeping forever when I got home Monday lunchtime.

This week's hand comes from the new American show Poker After Dark where the game is six-handed, everyone starts with 20k chips and it's a winner takes all format.

In this hand, you'll be playing as Erick Lindgren on the button up against Patrick Antonius in the big blind. The blinds are 100/200 and you both still have roughly your starting amount of chips.

Passed round to you on the button holding , you minimum raise to 400. Jennifer Tilly passes in the small blind, Patrick Antonius calls in the big blind, and the pot is now 900.

Flop:



Patrick checks, action to you.

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

2. How much should you bet here? Or could you check behind?

3. Obviously Antonius' check could mean anythnig, what are your plans if Antonius check/calls or check/raises?

[byronkincaid]

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

he explains why in his book

[NoflopsHomer]

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

he explains why in his book

[doubleup]

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

Cause he's got a hand that benefits from implied odds so raising less to keep these.  However this thinking is so 2006.  He should be raising 4x thus forcing his opponent to play a potentially large pot OOP.

2. How much should you bet here? Or could you check behind? 

Bets pot.

3. Obviously Antonius' check could mean anythnig, what are your plans if Antonius check/calls or check/raises?

Check calls my bet I take my free card on the turn.  Check raises it depends how much.  I might push if he can fold.

[TightEnd]

bet size...a drawing hand where he has implied odds/its disguised if he hits and he gets away cheaply if he doesnt

on flop...bet 3/4 the pot...


if I am called I hope for a free turn, but bet if I hit on the turn

check raised I probably call as Antonius can do the check raise bluff here,then try to keep pot small from then on

[ariston]

min bet for me to keep pot size down and also to worry Patrik. Any bigger bet may lead to you getting check raised allin or over check raised meaning you have to fold. It is also a similar bet to what I would weak lead with if I had a ten or an overpair. 3 or 4times standard bet looks like a continuation bet and may lead to an awkward decision.

[snoopy1239]

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

Seeing that his hand is marginal, he possibly wants to take the lead in the hand. Also, min raises can appear threatening.

2. How much should you bet here? Or could you check behind?

I'd personally check and then bet the Turn. If he has a ten and re-raises the flop, you're probably going to have to fold and lose the chance of hitting a flush for nothing. Also, a flush draw is expected to bet, so if you do hit, then a ten, or even a lesser hand, will often pay you off.

3. Obviously Antonius' check could mean anything, what are your plans if Antonius check/calls or check/raises?

If he check calls, then it very much depends on what he does on the Turn and what that Turn card actually is. If he check-raises, then I fold, but then again, I'd check the Flop so he wouldn't do this to me.

[MANTIS01]

1. The minimum raise gives Antonius 3.5/1 odds to call. Why do you think Erick makes this sort of raise and not a more standard 3xBB type raise?

6-handed play is typically aggressive. I think raising 3xBB and not giving Patrick the odds to call can sometimes lead to a re-raise. Trying to push aggressive players out of the pot can often prompt them to return the favour. Erick wants to see a flop with a playable hand and with the benefit of position. So I agree with everyone else...he is probably playing well post-flop, just decides to play the hand passively and wants to control things with position. He starts by controlling the size of the pot and invites Patrick in to play a hand.

2. How much should you bet here? Or could you check behind?

I am inclined to agree with Snoopy here. I don't think a check behind is such a bad play. Erick has decided to play the hand passively....so pushing a draw doesn't really fit the plan. If he bets out a re-raise could quickly follow. Patrick will think...what hand is he betting with that he wont lay down to a re-raise? Erick has decided to play the potential of his hand and to play passively...I think this flop is good to contnue with that mind-set.

3. Obviously Antonius' check could mean anythnig, what are your plans if Antonius check/calls or check/raises?

Check/call is ok for me. Let's see what happens on the turn. Hate the check/raise and is why I like the check on the flop. Calling the check-raise is not good because now the onus is on me to improve and my grip on the pot is starting to fail. If you choose to re-raise then you have now let a pot you were trying to control start to get out of hand.

[NoflopsHomer]

Past action in italics:

Passed round to you on the button holding , you minimum raise to 400. Jennifer Tilly passes in the small blind, Patrick Antonius calls in the big blind, and the pot is now 900.

Flop:



Antonius checks, Lindgren bets 500, Antonius check/raises to 1,400. Lindgren calls.

Turn:



Antonius leads out now for 2,500. Lindgren calls.

River:



Antonius checks. There is 8,700 in the pot. Lindgren bets 5,700.... the results will be revealed in a couple of days time.


1. Would you do anything differently on the turn or river in Erick's place?

2. Given that Antonius is equally skillful at maneveuring with nothing and the nuts, is it possible to put him on any sort of hand here?

3. Once Patrick has check/raised the flop, would it be worthwhile to 3-bet it?

[MANTIS01]

I don't like Lindgren's bet on the flop. He persists with his slowly-slowly-catchy-monkey strategy by juicing the pot...but what sort of hand can he have that stands a re-raise with such a non-committing bet? Antonius quickly pounces on the situation.

For me, flat-calling the re-raise pushes Erick onto the back-foot in this pot and is why Patrick leads out again on the turn.
Of course, he could easily have the 4 or pp and genuinely believe it is the best hand, but I think he would take advantage of this situation with a wide range of hands so I would re-raise and try to re-seize the initiative.

Calling the turn bet is a good play though. It not only sets up the river steal if Antonius checks but must also make Antonius re-assess Lindgren's supposed non-commitment to this pot. It's going to be tough for Antonius to put out another big bet on the river without a hand.

The river could easily make Antonius's hand so the check is tough to read, but it makes little difference because to win Lindgren needs to represent he had the boss hand all along or he just made his draw. His bet is just a pure gamble that his opponent doesn't have a hand to call with. One of those hold your breath and count to five moments methinks.

[snoopy1239]

1. Would you do anything differently on the turn or river in Erick's place?

Although I don't like his bet on the Flop, I can understand why he might be calling the Turn, clearly looking to bluff the River if he misses. However, I still think there's too high a chance that Antonius has a Ten.

2. Given that Antonius is equally skillful at maneveuring with nothing and the nuts, is it possible to put him on any sort of hand here?

He could have anything, in truth, but at the same time, and considering the way the hand is playing out, I wouldn't be surprised if he did indeed have a ten. For me though, Erick has made the pot unnecessarily big with what is in essence a very marginal hand. I guess he simply doesn't believe Patrick has anything and reckons he'll win if he pairs the Jack or Nine.

Once Patrick has check/raised the flop, would it be worthwhile to 3-bet it?

I don't like the 3-bet. I can't see what hands would do this, so he could get re-popped.

[doubleup]

Not sure I like the river bet, I doubt that it is going to get a pair to fold.  I can't help thinking that Antonius has a either a very weak hand perhaps a baby flush draw or checks intending to call a reasonable bet.  If he gets Ax, Qx or another J9 to fold, well played.

[NoflopsHomer]

Reveal is now here: http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/10197

[MANTIS01]

Time for some results-orientated analysis I think...

Firstly though, may I say that the call from Antonius on the end was pure class. I imagine that he put Lindgren on a flush draw after he called the flop re-raise and just followed his hunch from there. Of course, it was possible that Lindgren had a 10 but this scenario is much less likely than a flush draw and Antonius put a lot of faith in his read. So fair play to him.

I said I didn't like Erick's flop bet at the time because the board was ripe for a re-raise. If you check the flop you a) Get the turn card for free and b) Represent a stronger hand than a continuation bet would...why haven't you continued with your aggression?....Do YOU have the 10?

By betting out a weak 500 Lindgren has allowed Antonius the opportunity to seize the day and represent the 10 for a mere 1,400. Check-raising a sizeable amount is a strong play but he has been allowed to posture such strength for a cut-price deal. I think Lindgren compounds his error by flat-calling the re-raise. This not only puts him on the back-foot in the hand but does give his opponent a tadge of information about his holding. If the turn is a diamond does Lindgren make money by risking this call?....I doubt it!

I said at the time that re-raising on the flop is a better play and with the benefit of hindsight this is clear. By the end Lindgren has put a total of 10,000 chips into this pot and ended up loosing half his stack on a busted draw bluff. When he bets the flop I thought that a re-raise by his opponent was likely with a wide range of hands. Antonius asks whether his opponent has the 10. To call this bet is to say....might have!....or...maybe I have a draw! But by re-raising here, you say...I care not for your questions pal....the real question is DO YOU? The re-raise would cost about 4,500!

You would then win the pot without fuss. If you do get a call you will probably get to see the river for free....you also re-claim the initiative in the hand....and if the diamond does come you stand a far better chance of getting paid. If you play the hand this way you spend half as much and get so much more. But of course it's easy to say that now!!!