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Question: call or fold?
Call
Fold

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Author Topic: call or fold?  (Read 890 times)
bolt pp
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« on: July 21, 2007, 05:55:26 PM »

final three of a 160+ runner low level buy-in MTT.

I'm watching my friend play and the chipstacks are as follows(roughly):


Button(hero)145,000
sb:45,000
bb:51,000

hero is outplaying opponents post flop and has built up his stack +70%-80% since 6 handed

blinds 1500-3000

hero raises from the button with  Two Clubs to 9k

SB folds, BB calls.

BB seems very inexperienced, big preflop range and has been giving up a lot of pots to hero continuation bet.

pot 20k and flop 

BB moves all in for 40k and my pal insta calls.

my pal draws out and wins pot.

We had a heated debate about this hand, my pal is a very good MTT player usually and plays at higher stakes but was playing a serious end game here even for a low level MTT so i was confused by his call. addmittidly he plays a lot on instinct and felt that BB had connected with the flop, would've check raised with a "proper" flush draw so he felt his 4 high spade draw was good and that combined with his gutshot straight was sure enough that he was 48% to improve, remarkable read if true but even if true with BB erratic preflop range and post flop play can you take this little call equity given that 48% dog is the BEST you can hope for, especially when your outplaying your opponents so convincingly post flop?

The BB had 

Even if you could see the opponents cards given your getting 6/4 about a 48% shot would you call here knowing you hugely +EV playing flops against these guys.

So my pals argument is that he has a chance to knock someone out risking 1/3 of his stack, getting to heads up a 4:1 CL and getting pot odds 6/4 about a 48% shot when he feels the blinds have just gone up enough so that his edge playing flop will be negated by his opponents starting to shove.

would you call given these circumstances, register your vote please guys.

also i'd like to hear if you'd call if you could see opponents cards.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2007, 06:15:54 PM by bolt pp » Logged
MANTIS01
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2007, 07:15:21 PM »

Yes, your friend puts forward a convincing argument so this can't be knocked....but I hate this play.

We saw with the Phillip Hilm hand how reckless pre-flop play often gets you into a mess later in the hand. Hero is in a position we are all familiar with. He has a sizeable chip advantage and can turn the screw on his two shorter-stacked opponents. Most of us will be raising liberally on the button with a wide range. We know this is the way to play here...and Hero's opponents know this as well (hence the call and push with K-7).

2-4 is a nothing hand and should be treated as such imo. So I just wouldn't touch it pre-flop.

After the flop I fold to the push. Why? Because I still have a nothing hand.

I am in a position where I want to be turning the screw, betting out and forcing my opponents to fold. And there are going to be lots of opportunities to do this. But if I start making loose calls those opportunities are going to vanish pretty quickly along with my chips. I really want to be avoiding calling all-in unless I think I am ahead.

Here I know I'm behind. I know that a 2 is no good. I know a 4 is no good. What's a proper flush draw? Any spade above a 4 is good (if a spade comes at all) so I am not pinning my hopes on a spade. A 5 works but that's about the long and short of it and I am not calling a third of my stack off looking for one card.

Although your friend looks at the upside of hitting his draw take a look at the other side of the coin. If the draw doesn't complete then the picture looks very different....Hero 94k, sb 45k, bb 100k. The whole complexion of the tournament has changed and Hero can no longer turn the screw with the big stack. He has lost that valuable weapon and lost it with a hopeless hand...in addition his table image will be shot and this will make life increasingly difficult.

Sometimes folding on the button in these situations gives your raises more credibility as well.
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2007, 08:13:28 PM »

I agree..it's a fold everyday of the week...really don't like the call here and his reasoning is too good to be true, if indeed he thought this out before he called..it seems to me he didn't think it through aswell as he stated and it's a bit of results orientated thinking by a player who got away with a silly move.
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booder
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2007, 08:17:18 PM »

its a mug move.............fold
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