Tournament Hand of the Week: August 13th

[iorek]

Sky Poker or French film?

Is this hand going the way of a Sky poker hand, that is, a miraculous out draw on the river or a gutsy buff to push off an almost lock. Always entertaining if only for the presenters missing a whole host of outs or counting outs that we can see have already been passed. Not tikay though, he just changes his comp winner pick 3 times in one hand. Although his newest pick is usually in recognition of some pretty good poker.

The French film way is taking a pretty average character (read 68 off suit) along an inevitable journey of self distruction. I can picture a 6 on the river where our hopeless hero goes all in. We don't even see the call, just the dilapidated pink neon sign flashing WI NER over Tin~Tin's deuce queen. THE END. No sequel, he had us out chipped.

I find it hard when thinking about hands not to think why are we discussing this and how can I make myself look good by advising the right play rather than trying to put across (right or wrong) how I would play the hand.

My first aim is always to beat half the field. Then to make the money. Somewhere between these two there is often an opportunity to move into the chip lead. If as in this case it occurs prior to playing short handed approaching the bubble then it could be all the more tempting. In life I always surrender to temptation, expanding waistline being  a noticeable casualty. In poker I'm far more disciplined.

Am I more likely to win the comp with a double up now?

Yes.

Am I twice as likely to win?

No.

I would be out if I lose this hand, sure a 1200 call doesn't put us out but why call if not to push on the river.

We might be ahead and we all hate being bluffed (although letting myself being bluffed can pay big dividends later) I think as I did on the flop that I would fold in this situation.

Very interested to see how this one plays out though.


 

[MANTIS01]

Part III
We decide to call Tin~Tin's turn bet of 1,200.

Is pushing all-in a better play if you think you have the best hand? What makes you think you could be ahead right now? What do you plan to do on the river?

The River
The river card hits and it is...

 

The final board

        

We are first to act so what's our play and why? What are the merits of checking or is betting out a better move?

We check....

Tin~Tin immediately moves all-in for his remaining 4,200 chips. Was this to be expected and what are we going to do?

This simple pre-flop value call has now led us to face a decision for our tournament life. Is there any justification for folding now? If we do decide to call what evidence is there to suggest we have the best hand?

On Sunday I will post the final part of this hand along with a blueprint of my thoughts throughout but I am interested to hear your thoughts on the way this hand has gone.

[doubleup]

Hmmm I'm going to call this.  Sklansky discusses this in his essay "Advanced play for calling stations".  I did suggest in my last response that calling the turn with a view to calling the river was better than raising the turn, as the latter play only gets the chips in when we're beaten.

Another interesting point is his insta-push.  The only reliable internet tells are insta and he could certainly insta push with nothing.

[tikay]

Sorry I've arrived a little late in the day with this one.

But it matters not really, as I'd not be involved with this hand beyond the flop.

Sure, I call the pre-flop Raise, Im pretty much obliged to. But if there's action after, & I'm holding 8-6 on the 8 high flop, well, I'm outa here.

I know, I know, tin-tin is very probably at it.

But if we bet & he re-pops it, where are we then? And if I call on the flop, & he bets the turn, well, this is getting nasty. "I busted with 8-6, on the 8 high board" ain't gonna look or sound too good the next morning, now is it?

I just put the white flag up in these situations, as soon as the post-flop bet comes in. It's cost me 300, big deal. Thing is, I can find a better situation later, I'm quite sure. We have to play this passively, if we play it, so we are being dictated to by someone else, & I just hate that. And we cannot control the pot size. And we are out of position.

Bet the flop to see where we are? Nah. What do we do if he re-pops?

Sorry, but for me, it's "better situation" if the pot is gonna get big, & I bin it after the flop bet by tin-tin.

OK, I know I leave a few pots behind, with this thinking. But I save more than I lose, over time.

If I'm gonna play a big pot with 8-6 (top pair, 6 kicker), I wanna be in position, I wanna be dictating the play, & I wanna be controlling the pot size. I wanna play pots on MY terms, in MY time, & when I want to.

Take it Mr Tin-Tin, you are serial-raising, & I've marked you down as my target for later, but you can win this battle, I'm here to win the war.

I mean, it looks good if we win a big pot with 8-6, we can chirp to our mates in the morning, "I called him down with 8-6, I'm Billy Big-Dick". But if we stack off, are we gonna tell our mates we called down, all the way, with 8-6? I think not. Because it's the wrong situation to get involved in.

In my opinion, that is.....& for "my" game.

Good & interesting hand, though.

[pswnio]

I wouldn't have check called this on the flop and turn in a million years, but if I had, and I was facing this river bet, I'd fold. Look at it from Tin Tin's point of view. He's faced check call, check call. If he puts you on a flush draw and has nothing, he might not bet here unless he's got a really weak hand (this logic might be twisted, tell me if it is please). If he puts you on top pair, and you've called this far, he can't fire again with nothing cos he really can't be sure you're going away. He's not too scared of a set or boat, which would surely have bet the river. Coupled with the min raise pre flop, I put him on an overpair to the board.

Pre flop I'm calling. Most times I fire on the flop, about 2/3 pot bet, to try and take it down there and then. Occasionally would check raise to about 2000 depending on the size of his continuation, but generally only when I knew more about him and his raising range here - this play is more costly.  If I bet out and there's a raise, am done with the hand. If a flat call, have to re-evaluate on the turn, but I probably fire one more bullet and finish with the hand if that gets called or raised. But check calling like this is tossing chips without having any idea at all where you are. Nasty.

[byronkincaid]

Dubai's post has disappeared

[tikay]

Dubai's post has disappeared

That is correct, we have removed it for  the time being while we decide whether it should be permitted to stay up.

The Post was suggesting, maybe tongue-in-cheek, that MANTIS's Hand of the Week amounted to trolling by MANTIS. It's probably just Dubai's weird sense of humour, but I don't imagine he realises just how much hard work goes into well constructed hand analysis threads.

Both MANTIS & Totalise have agreed to post a "Hand of the Week", one Cash, one Tourney, on alternate weeks. They are not being paid for these, but it as a nice offer by them, & it's bringing education, entertainment & information to many Members, & we want to encourge the Authors, not belittle them.

It's really rather nice when blondes who derive benefit from the Forum decide to give something back by way of positive contributions like Hand of the Week.

I'm sure Dubai has made many useful & positive contributions to blonde too, though for the moment they escape my memory. But if he wishes to do a weekly Hand Analysis thread, I'm sure we'd all be most interested, & grateful.

A decision as to whether to reinstate the Dubai Post will be made today.

[MANTIS01]

I think Dubai's post should be re-listed.....in fact I think it should take pride of place on this thread. It would be rather unfortunate if I did not get the opportunity to post a response.

[JungleCat03]

Having played the hand so passively it's a mistake to now fold the river imo.

The hand has been badly played in my view. We have set up a situation where we are put in a position of calling off all our chips blind with little idea of our opponent's holding and just hoping to pick off a bluff.

In actual fact the hand has been made easier for us by the fact there are no overcards to the eight. We would have been in a tougher spot, had a club or paint appeared and we had been facing a large bet from our opponent. As it is, we have to call the river and hope we are not shown a better hand. I think there's a fair chance this is a bluff so that is good news...

....if our opponent had a reasonable holding such as 99/ TT or other overpair which have us beat I think he may have bet more/ pushed on the turn and would not necessarily push the river card for value but often check behind/ make a smaller VB.

If he had a house on the turn, therefore not fearing the flush draw, he may have bet smaller to induce a call from the draw, which will put extra money into the pot, but will allow the flush draw a cheap shot at making his flush and hopefully stacking off on the river if it comes.

All in all, i think there's enough evidence to suggest that we are good to call here, although i dislike the way the hand has been played so passively with a mediocre holding. Our opponent could have anything from AQ AK to a house, we have little idea.

[snoopy1239]

The answer to this hand can be found here:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/11691

[snoopy1239]

Mantis asked me to post the following on his behalf:

Conclusion
So we called and Tin~Tin showed what really amounts to a busted flush draw but with a small flopped pair as well.

The reason I posted this hand was because there is a lot of poor play on display from both players and making mistakes often enables you to learn much more than perfect play. So let’s take a look at the hand….

Pre-flop
A number of members picked up on the minimum raise. My own inclination was that Tin~Tin held a big hand, probably A-A, and was looking to encourage action. The inexplicable reduction of his pre-flop raise means he gives me the odds to call….a mistake which eventually costs him the pot.

I think my value call is standard really, but it is important to have firm expectations before the cards hit the felt or it is easy to get seduced by a hand like top pair. Here I am looking for 2-pair, trips or the straight to get committed to the hand. If I hit any of these hands I will bet out about half the pot and if not I will check with a view to folding.

The Flop
Those members looking to bet out to define their hand have also suggested they fold to a re-raise. This is an important point. Betting out of the blinds into the original raiser with a hand that doesn’t stand a re-raise is a loosing play I think. Better players know this and will re-pop you as standard…especially an opponent like Tin~Tin who has shown the propensity to re-raise at will. So betting out with strength and hoping for said re-raise is a better play imo. I duly check here and will fold to any action.

Tin~Tin bets 600 and now I don’t want to fold. Doubleup’s first post is cock on the money for me because although I may be a long way behind there will be a lot of scare cards that I can use to my advantage on the turn…and I could still improve…and it’s only 600...and unless Tin~Tin has A-A his bet is just too low to be representative of an over-pair to the board. So the plan goes out the window in the face of a lot of ifs and I call and go to the turn oop and with a weak hand unlikely to improve. I plan to check whatever card hits and check-raise if it is a club or check-fold if a big card hits but I am very much oop and out of control and this is not a good spot to get yourself into in tournament poker.

The Turn
A blank hits and I check as per the plan. This pot is still very much there for the taking if Tin~Tin puts in a serious bet but he compounds his error by betting weakly again. Now I am finding it hard to put him on a hand that isn’t scared of clubs when he is getting called down…a flush draw himself perhaps? But with a paired board the full-house also answers that question so I am getting far too fancy with this.

The River
As doubleup says, there is little point in continuing if you intended to fold on the river. So I am thinking no club or big card on the river and I will check to give Tin~Tin the chance to bet at it with the nothing I hope he’s got. His all-in on the river was an easier call for me than another small bet because it was inconsistent…but I make the call blissfully unaware whether I am going to get shown the full-house or nothing.

I put a lot of emphasis in this hand on bet amounts and how they relate to my opponent’s actual holding as well as the time taken by my opponent to act. Tin~Tin’s instant actions and small bets gave me a “general feeling” he was weak…but so was I. In a bigger competition against better players I think you get shown the full-house every day of the week. But the hand does demonstrate how bet amounts and speed of action are pretty good on-line tells.

I think the voice of experience is the one to listen to here and the likes of Tikay and iorek, both good players, recognise the dangers and bail-out early….as I planned to do.

Tin~Tin who demonstrated the “How to Milk Your Opponent with the Full-House” betting style forgot he didn’t have one and in the end I was lucky.

Some great posts on this thread….very much food for thought. Fair play to Junglecat for making the call on the end and a special mention to doubleup who given the circumstances made a series of excellent plays.

[badhaircut]

Doesnt it make a more sound play to lead out of the flop?  You are out of position with a weak kicker.  Leading out would be my play here to find out where i stand.  Flop play puts you in awful postion for turn and river.  I understand that keeping pot size small is key here, but you wud look preety silly check calling all the way down if he has overpair.  Id bet out flop, in this instance the guy is likely to shove with his pair and a flush draw (results orientated) then you can fold to his shove range. 
No scare card hits the turn, maybe a stop and go bet on the turn is a better play having called the flop.  check calling the turn gives you no understanding of where you are in the hand, that leads to majestic/calling station call on the river, depending on the outcome.  by betting out the turn more information is learned with a weaker hand in this spot IMO.  I woud never check call top pair no kicker on flop turn and river ever! To me that is preety poor standard of play.

[MANTIS01]

Posted on: Today at 12:10:00 pmPosted by: badhaircut
 Re: Tournament Hand of the Week: August 13th   

Doesnt it make a more sound play to lead out of the flop?  You are out of position with a weak kicker.  Leading out would be my play here to find out where i stand.  Flop play puts you in awful postion for turn and river.  I understand that keeping pot size small is key here, but you wud look preety silly check calling all the way down if he has overpair.  Id bet out flop, in this instance the guy is likely to shove with his pair and a flush draw (results orientated) then you can fold to his shove range. 
No scare card hits the turn, maybe a stop and go bet on the turn is a better play having called the flop.  check calling the turn gives you no understanding of where you are in the hand, that leads to majestic/calling station call on the river, depending on the outcome.  by betting out the turn more information is learned with a weaker hand in this spot IMO.  I woud never check call top pair no kicker on flop turn and river ever! To me that is preety poor standard of play.

The bad play was to continue with the hand at all on the flop when my plan was to fold. However, venturing into bad play territory highlighted a couple of lessons that were the foundation of this hand.

The most important issue was to challenge the theory of betting out to define your hand. Every Blonde who bets out here folds to the re-raise. You essentially say the same thing...bet out to see where you stand...then fold when the re-raise comes in. But you would be folding the best hand. So the interesting point is....Are you actually defining your hand by betting out or are you just donating chips to the inevitable re-raise!

The second point is...aren't the bet sizes Tin~Tin puts in a better definition of where you stand? Betting less than half the pot on both occasions with an over-pair on a flushing board seemed quite unrealistic to me at the time. 

[tikay]

Posted on: Today at 12:10:00 pmPosted by: badhaircut
 Re: Tournament Hand of the Week: August 13th   

Doesnt it make a more sound play to lead out of the flop?  You are out of position with a weak kicker.  Leading out would be my play here to find out where i stand.  Flop play puts you in awful postion for turn and river.  I understand that keeping pot size small is key here, but you wud look preety silly check calling all the way down if he has overpair.  Id bet out flop, in this instance the guy is likely to shove with his pair and a flush draw (results orientated) then you can fold to his shove range. 
No scare card hits the turn, maybe a stop and go bet on the turn is a better play having called the flop.  check calling the turn gives you no understanding of where you are in the hand, that leads to majestic/calling station call on the river, depending on the outcome.  by betting out the turn more information is learned with a weaker hand in this spot IMO.  I woud never check call top pair no kicker on flop turn and river ever! To me that is preety poor standard of play.

The bad play was to continue with the hand at all on the flop when my plan was to fold. However, venturing into bad play territory highlighted a couple of lessons that were the foundation of this hand.

The most important issue was to challenge the theory of betting out to define your hand. Every Blonde who bets out here folds to the re-raise. You essentially say the same thing...bet out to see where you stand...then fold when the re-raise comes in. But you would be folding the best hand. So the interesting point is....Are you actually defining your hand by betting out or are you just donating chips to the inevitable re-raise!

The second point is...aren't the bet sizes Tin~Tin puts in a better definition of where you stand? Betting less than half the pot on both occasions with an over-pair on a flushing board seemed quite unrealistic to me at the time. 

Betting out to "define one's hand" (oh how I loathe that expression, it means defining the OTHER players hand!) causes the loss of almost more chips than any other play, defending Blinds being the other most wasteful culprit.

We are better off just letting go of this on the flop, once he bets. If he's at it, fine, let him have it. We will play our hands on our Terms when we have position & circumstances working better for us. We are being dictated to by others here.

[iorek]

Ah yes the Hollywood ending and even enough chips left for Tin~Tin to strike back at us (sequel?).

Not showing strength at any stage of the hand allowed Tin~Tin the licence to bluff all his chips to us, great result even if the route was a tad scarey.

Ironically I bet Tin~Tin was more annoyed by the preflop call.

Seeing the cards face up and looking back at the prehand info I can now see how the calls were rationalised. Sadly I still don't think I could have won this hand.

What is cheerfully interesting for me is that there are so often some very easy chips on the table.