More Luck in Poker than most people think...............

[Laxie]

I've been thinking about this very topic A LOT in the past month or two.  It was something that was REALLY bothering me too.  How do we know if we're any good at this poker racket and/or just plain lucky/unlucky?  I know I've A LOT to learn about Hold Em yet, but I was starting to get frustrated by the 'luck factor'.  Reading through the posts in this thread, combined with the debates going through my own head, I've finally reached a conclusion I'm happy with.   

I've heard many say, 'You're never done learning the game of Hold Em.'  I'm happy enough with that and know that, if willing to put in the time/practice, some day 'the big win' might come my way.  Until then, keep learning and be sure to focus on the positive or I won't enjoy it. 

That's where the 'luck' debate comes in and depends on what your definition of luck is.  If you have a positive mind set, isn't that half the battle won?  I'm lucky to have the time to play and the money to travel to comps now and then.  I'm lucky to be able to afford the buy ins (smaller than many others, but so what?) and consider each comp 'practice' for the bigger comps I'd like to enter some day.  I'm lucky to cash now and then.  Might not be the winner, but so what?  Do your best, enjoy the game and be happy you cashed.  I'm lucky my family support my interest in poker, even if I'm not making an income out of it...at least it's not costing us in the long run as I always seem to nip a wee cash in there to keep me 'freerolling'. 

Long and short of it...I reckon it's a mind set.  If you're a 'glass half empty' kind of person, then you'll convince yourself you've bad luck and you're doomed.  I'm more of a 'glass is half full' kind of girl and it's not til this minute that I've learned to appreciate it.  Keep positive and good things happen...not all of the time, but definitely most of the time.  Bad beat?  Maybe it's 'good' because if you paid attention, you've learned something new.  Just depends on how much you expect from the situation and how willing you are to pick out the good.   

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: lazaroonie

bringing the odds back to a more manageable level for a moment, supposing player A offers player B to toss a coin, and the winner gets 100K. Will the winning player be classed as "lucky" ? There are realistically only 2 outcomes here, and we have succeeded in arriving at one of them. So luck doesnt really have anything to do with it Similarly the lottery has 14 million outcomes, and each week we will arrive at one of these outcomes

After 10 winning "flips" player A is sitting on a cool million and player B feels unlucky...and actually is

[AlexMartin]

Interesting that people think that luck 'evens itself out' over a period of time...

You are born white in a first world country while other peep is born in Darfur. If the 'it evens itself out' theory was true then a whole heap of sh*t needs to happen to you for the theory to work.

In poker.

[AndrewT]

Luck cannot 'even out' over time as luck has no memory.

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes down heads ten times, then flip it ten more times, tails is not more likely to come up in order to even things up. The extreme deviation from the expected results is not likely to continue, but it may.

[M3boy]

Luck cannot 'even out' over time as luck has no memory.

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes down heads ten times, then flip it ten more times, tails is not more likely to come up in order to even things up. The extreme deviation from the expected results is not likely to continue, but it may.

Just to be perdantic, it has already been proven that a coin will land heads more times than tails - something to do with the weight on each side of the coin ;P

[The_duke]

From the cambridge dictionary

luck 
noun
The force that causes things, especially good things, to happen to you by chance and not as a result of your own efforts or abilities:

(as my efforts at this wonderful game have proved countless times ability is a shotcoming)

probability 
noun [C or U]
the likelihood of something happening or being true:

(yep I will get beaten when i'm ahead)

This could be debated at great length, but I agree with the people that have said
-- play your best
-- love the game
-- love the company
-- play within your means
-- rejoice at your success
-- forget the beats (its experience but unfortuntely they are always remembered)

Whether I have "luck" (I have won a couple of things) or whether I have not -- I love this game and will continue to play it and enjoy it

[kinboshi]

Luck cannot 'even out' over time as luck has no memory.

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes down heads ten times, then flip it ten more times, tails is not more likely to come up in order to even things up. The extreme deviation from the expected results is not likely to continue, but it may.

Just to be perdantic, it has already been proven that a coin will land heads more times than tails - something to do with the weight on each side of the coin ;P

Depends on the coin though. 

[MKKfish]

Interesting that people think that luck 'evens itself out' over a period of time...

You are born white in a first world country while other peep is born in Darfur. If the 'it evens itself out' theory was true then a whole heap of sh*t needs to happen to you for the theory to work.

In poker.

er....I believe that may have qualified for the daftest response of the year.


eg...man walks away from a plane crash - plays poker and gets his AA cracked....in your world he is 'unlucky'....or you argue the two events are unrelated. Which if you do is even more daft. Quantify 'survivors of plane crashes' vs 'people who have had AA cracked'..... go figure

[Compo]

"luck determines who has the best cards...Skill determines who has the most chiips"    If only!!


There is no doubt some people are "luckier" than others. I work in a gambling environment, and have done for 30 years,and I am in no doubt that some are blessed with good luck and others cursed with bad.(purely in gambling terms)

The amount of good fortune, or otherwise, is unquantifiable, but both extremes can be seen on a regular basis.  It is true that we recall "bad luck" far more easily than good, as this has more effect on our circumstances, but we should never discount our good fortune and attempt to capitalise on it when it comes our way. I look on it as the opposite of tilt. If I have some outrageous luck I push until the"streak" runs out. Enjoy the rush when things are running for you, dig in and grind when lady luck fails to return your phone calls.

[Moskvich]

Quote from: MKKfish on August 21, 2007, 02:01:05 pm
Interesting that people think that luck 'evens itself out' over a period of time...

You are born white in a first world country while other peep is born in Darfur. If the 'it evens itself out' theory was true then a whole heap of sh*t needs to happen to you for the theory to work.


In poker.


er....I believe that may have qualified for the daftest response of the year.


eg...man walks away from a plane crash - plays poker and gets his AA cracked....in your world he is 'unlucky'....or you argue the two events are unrelated. Which if you do is even more daft. Quantify 'survivors of plane crashes' vs 'people who have had AA cracked'..... go figure

I think the point may have been that luck was only being discussed here in a poker context... I'm sure everyone would agree that factors which hugely influence life in general can't necessarily be evened out. Should I be hit and killed by a bus today, for example, my chances of winning next week's 50 quid rebuy are almost certainly not going to improve.

[RED-DOG]

Lol.

[M3boy]

This is not a moan, I just want to try and re-iterate what my point of this thread was

For the people who think "Luck" evens itself out - I have now been in position to go onto final tables with real good chips in my last 6 tournaments, only to suffer at the hands of the poker gods (the hands are on the forum and my blog and are mostly 70/30 or 80/20 chances).

How many tournaments do you think I have to be in the same position but get it in behind so I am facing 30/70 or 20/80 chances (ie I have the AQ vs QQ) and win?

It just wont happen!

That was what I meant about Luck factor in poker - timing!

[MANTIS01]

Posted on: Today at 12:39:06 amPosted by: M3boy

This is not a moan, I just want to try and re-iterate what my point of this thread was

For the people who think "Luck" evens itself out - I have now been in position to go onto final tables with real good chips in my last 6 tournaments, only to suffer at the hands of the poker gods (the hands are on the forum and my blog and are mostly 70/30 or 80/20 chances).

How many tournaments do you think I have to be in the same position but get it in behind so I am facing 30/70 or 20/80 chances (ie I have the AQ vs QQ) and win?

It just wont happen!

That was what I meant about Luck factor in poker - timing!

Yes. I agree with this entirely.

You must accept bad luck in poker because it is the nature of the game....but someone hitting a 5% chance on you on the bubble of the WSOP Main Event for the chip lead...and then you get done by another 5% chance in your next life-changing event etc.... is surely much unluckier than those statistical requirements being filled in a regular £20 rebuy. It is without the doubt the circumstances under which your opponent hits his unlikely card that determines how lucky/unlucky your are. Why did that happen NOW when we could play it out 100 times and I win 96 of those times? I have never been a fan of the long-term philosophy when applied to tournament play...because you will NEVER get another chance to be in this unique situation again. Once you get knocked out you are OUT end of.

A guy uses the same lottery numbers every Saturday for 10 years with no joy..one Saturday he forgets..and his numbers come up. Even the most hardened statastician must agree this is pretty bloody unlucky!

[M3boy]

TY Mant - someone gets the point I am trying to make

[RED-DOG]

TY Mant - Luckily, someone gets the point I am trying to make

FYP