Fire the third bullet after river check?

[AlexMartin]

Opponent is known loose player who my notes say can lay down a hand. Have not been active of late and only shown down premium which is why i went for over-rep line. Thoughts please.



Game #5456750344: Hold'em NL ($2/$5) - 2007/09/06 - 22:54:59 (UK)
Table "Bitlis" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: hercules ($504.40 in chips)
Seat 2: Garfy ($601.50 in chips)
Seat 3: gith9 ($311.10 in chips)
Seat 4: JensLE ($529.65 in chips)
Seat 5: Abigail ($543.65 in chips)
Seat 6: SuperBad ($453.10 in chips)
JensLE: posts small blind $2
Abigail: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to SuperBad [As ]
SuperBad: raises to $15
hercules: folds
Garfy: calls $15
gith9: folds
JensLE: folds
Abigail: calls $10
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
Abigail: checks
SuperBad: bets $30
Garfy: folds
Abigail: calls $30
----- TURN ----- [ ][]
Abigail: checks
SuperBad: bets $75
Abigail: calls $75
----- RIVER ----- [ ][]
Abigail: checks
SuperBad: checks
----- SHOW DOWN -----
Abigail: shows [ ] (Two Pairs, Tens and Threes, Eight high)
SuperBad: mucks hand  [As ]
Abigail collected $254 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $257 Main pot $254 Rake $3
Board [ ]
Seat 1: hercules folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Garfy folded on the Flop
Seat 3: gith9 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: JensLE (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Abigail (big blind) showed [ ] and won ($254) with Two Pairs, Tens and Threes, Eight high
Seat 6: SuperBad mucked  [As ]

[kinboshi]

You sure he can lay down a hand?

[TightEnd]

Hate his play on the turn unless he knows you C bet twice with air. He can't know he is ahead

If your notes are right the third bullet surely gets through?

[AdamG]

flop he call c-bet? turn, he calls for flush draw as well as top pair? river he checks because he doesnt like his kicker issues? doubt he would laydown value bet.... 100% he wouldnt

[bolt pp]

flop he call c-bet? turn, he calls for flush draw as well as top pair? river he checks because he doesnt like his kicker issues? doubt he would laydown value bet.... 100% he wouldnt

standard

call c-flop bet see if you fire turn, value call turn fd

have to be so sure opp can fold top pair on river to fire $175, let him have it, i dont think he folds

[ifm]

Without looking at the HH i'm firing again but big on the river, just from the thread title!!!

[UpTheMariners]

surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.

[byronkincaid]

surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.

he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK

[Graham C]

I don't see him folding with a third bet.

[UpTheMariners]

surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.

he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK

and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down.

[MANTIS01]

If he calls the turn why would he fold the river?

The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now.

If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call.

Save the bullet.

[byronkincaid]

surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.

he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK

and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down.

I know you're a good player and I'm always getting my concepts muddled up so I'm prob wrong but this is how I see it.

He has TPWK a hand which has some showdown value and also some possibility of improving to 2P or trips. You say "stick in a reraise and take the pot down" then are you not turning your hand into 72o? You are betting to protect your hand but if you get 3 bet you have to fold right? If we were really trying to protect our hand then we would be pushing AI if 3B here? Is it not better to make this play with say 72o as a bluff or a set to try to get all in than with a hand with showdown value?

If Alex calls then what is your play on the turn if you miss? bet/fold, check/fold, bet/call?

If you have AT here are you doing the same? Some very good players say you should generally be calling not raising in that situation.

Everything points to a call for me but but I'm interested in your thoughts otherwise.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

He has called the flop and turn with no obvious draws out there that you can put him on. He must surely have a piece and by calling two bullets i am sure he was going to call the river if i were you with my AK. So i think he calls the river here. And if he has got a missed draw your AK high wins anyway when you check behind. You are only value betting for him IMO.

[UpTheMariners]

surely if he knew what he was doing he would put in some kind of raise on the flop.

he prob doesn't want to build a big pot OOP with TPSK

and get outdrawn? stick in a reraise and take the pot down.

I know you're a good player and I'm always getting my concepts muddled up so I'm prob wrong but this is how I see it.

He has TPWK a hand which has some showdown value and also some possibility of improving to 2P or trips. You say "stick in a reraise and take the pot down" then are you not turning your hand into 72o? You are betting to protect your hand but if you get 3 bet you have to fold right? If we were really trying to protect our hand then we would be pushing AI if 3B here? Is it not better to make this play with say 72o as a bluff or a set to try to get all in than with a hand with showdown value?

If Alex calls then what is your play on the turn if you miss? bet/fold, check/fold, bet/call?

If you have AT here are you doing the same? Some very good players say you should generally be calling not raising in that situation.

Everything points to a call for me but but I'm interested in your thoughts otherwise.

i take your points on board, but im trying to make the best of a bad situation, if your going to call with 10 8 s OOP, i think you need to be brave enough to go with it.

[AlexMartin]

If he calls the turn why would he fold the river?

The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now.

If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call.

Save the bullet.

LOL me and you always think differently Mantis, which is kinda cool.

In hindsight he had FD which is why i think he calls on turn.
I dont care about "losing" players when i have a big hand, im all out to max value and create big pots with big hands (obv not applicable here).

Without looking at the HH i'm firing again but big on the river, just from the thread title!!!

 lol My thoughts exactly IFM. When the pot is this relatively big here on the river, he knows he is not gtd a bet from opponent and therefore he BETS his big made hands on the river. After showing this blatant weakness i cant help but feel i shoulda pumped it for $150.

He has called the flop and turn with no obvious draws out there that you can put him on. He must surely have a piece and by calling two bullets i am sure he was going to call the river if i were you with my AK. So i think he calls the river here. And if he has got a missed draw your AK high wins anyway when you check behind. You are only value betting for him IMO.

45 only reasonable draw after turn call. It gets there on turn. Unless its a blondite in which case 74 bets the river.