Hand Match Up #3

[Smart Money]

Following on from Alex's threads.....

Here's a hand from earlier this morning.

I flopped a pair, flush draw and gut-shot from UTG* against the UTG+1 raiser. (*I generally don't play SC from UTG but they just looked so pretty.)

(I posted a question the other day asking what others thought was the best way to play a flopped pair + flush draw Vs PFR where you are basically 50/50 if they hold an overpair.)

Anyway, I bet out and then jammed when he re-raised.

He didn't have an overpair though. he had the nut flush draw, overcards, and a gut-shot.

So, without using a poker calculator, what would you guess the odds were for each hand?

FullTiltPoker Game #3762142776: Table Anthem Club - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:28:52 ET - 2007/10/05
Seat 1: Narena ($379.10)
Seat 2: Melo44 ($230.70)
Seat 3: Stipey10 ($392.45)
Seat 4: RALLINSTONE ($47)
Seat 5: El Nino 1 ($197)
Seat 6: 420Pokerstar ($58)
Seat 7: BennytheDog ($200)
Seat 8: GLOVER09 ($33.90)
Seat 9: LoadedDice20 ($36.55)
GLOVER09 posts the small blind of $1
LoadedDice20 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Narena [ ]
Stipey10: nice hand
Narena calls $2
Melo44 raises to $8
Stipey10 folds
RALLINSTONE folds
El Nino 1 folds
420Pokerstar folds
GLOVER09 folds
LoadedDice20 folds
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena calls $6
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Narena has 15 seconds left to act
Narena bets $19
Melo44 has 15 seconds left to act
Melo44 raises to $69
Narena raises to $371.10, and is all in
Melo44 calls $153.70, and is all in
Narena shows [ ]
Melo44 shows [ ]

[TightEnd]

He has 3 aces, 3 kings, 6 spades (not the giving you the SF) and 3 Jacks

making him favourite, minus your redraws if he hits an A or K

I reckon your hand is 45% ish

off to Poker Stove!

[NoflopsHomer]

Add the full house redraws too. I'm going for a coinflip.

[M3boy]

Id go with 45% underdog as well.

[GlasgowBandit]

I reckon this is as close to a 50/50 as your going to get unless both where holding something like AKh AK d on a all club flop

[Longy]

I reckon this is almost a dead even coin flip so 50/50.

[kinboshi]

I've just tried to work it out (badly) in my head, and it's leaning towards 50/50 as well.  Going to find out now...

[Flea]

I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come.

[Smart Money]

I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come.

Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder.

So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity.

[AlexMartin]

I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come.

Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder.

So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity.

shhhhhhhhhh damnnit, stop advising. No really, this is a top rule and very very useful in cash games.

[Smart Money]

Here's the rest of the hand BTW:

*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
Narena shows three of a kind, Tens
Melo44 shows a pair of Tens
Narena wins the pot ($461.40) with three of a kind, Tens

[kinboshi]

Well you were a slight favourite...

[Flea]

I think you're about 40/60 as he has 15 outs (as per tighty's post) which with turn and river to come are about 4% each so he's 60/40. If he misses the turn you then become a slight favourite as his outs are about 3% each with just one card to come.

Flea. When calculating clean outs, you're better off using 4% for the first 8 outs, and 3% for the remainder.

So, when someone has, say, an open-ended straight and flush draw, their 15 outs would give them (8 x 4%) + (7 x 3%) = 53% equity.

Thanks for that - I'm still trying to learn all the percentages and stuff so these threads are really useful to me. Keep them coming guys and gals.

[Smart Money]

Anyway, no bad beat as the 50.3% favourite hung in there.