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Author Topic: Tournament Hand of the Week: October 8th  (Read 8903 times)
AlexMartin
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« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2007, 03:23:02 PM »

A quick question about the best play on the river

Is there not a case, considering the way I have played the hand (like a flush draw), for checking the river should a brick come? If John IS on a flush draw himself then checking will give him an invitation to try and buy the pot with his busted draw. If we decide to bet out we will loose him and this will mean no extra $'s after playing it so risky. Are we only ever going to face either a re-raise from a better hand or a fold from a busted draw if we bet the river?

Yes deffo induce a bluff v him if you get to river. But i dont think with the pot 10k and your stack 10k we should let him get there.
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« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2007, 03:33:52 PM »

Is he likely to bluff? Your description doesn't make him sound much of a bluffer to me.

Quote
John is less experienced than Sam and is a bit of a novice in comparison. Having said that he can certainly play and is not afraid to pull the trigger should he think he's ahead.

Now given that our hand looks like a flush draw, then if we bet it looks like a complete bluff.

This might get him to call with a marginal hand he would check behind (even something like the nut flush draw) or maybe even raise us.
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« Reply #32 on: October 11, 2007, 07:45:51 PM »

Bongo sums it up perfectly there. Have to bet the river.
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« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2007, 10:44:29 PM »

I'm still going with the all-in on the river bet hoping it looks like a steal and it get's called - about the only cards I'd check to are another ace or another jack as I've still got him on ace jack hence his check on the turn.

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« Reply #34 on: October 12, 2007, 02:09:41 PM »

Part III

So I check the turn hoping for John to fire another bullet but he elects to check behind and we go to the river.

The River

The river comes...

 

Making a board of

   three clubs     

The action is on me and I consider how much to value bet. I think Bongo is spot on with his comment about the "type" of opponent we are playing in this pot. If my opponent in the hand was Sam I may well check to induce a bluff but I know John may well check behind unless he has a monster. I count out 3,900 and make the bet....but John beats me into the pot with a super quick all-in.

This really surprised me. I thought he may pay me off with a weakish Ace and call the bet but his all-in is unexpected. So he has called a pre-flop raise, bet out on the flop, checked the turn and now raised me all-in on the river. What hand does John hold? He knows that I will find it very difficult to get away from my hand now because there is so much money in the pot and it is only another 4.5k to call...so why would he do this? I know that we are pretty much compelled to call his all-in but do you call with confidence or is it more of a crying call? If the stacks were much deeper would you still call a big all-in on the river? Is folding an option...and if you think you are beat then why would you call?

There have been some really smart opinions about the hand this week so thanks to everyone who has contributed. The final result will be posted at the weekend.
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2007, 02:30:14 PM »

How much do you have left before you intend to bet the river?
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2007, 04:18:51 PM »

If this were one of my level of tournament, John's pushed with the straight and holds KQ.  He's called preflop because KQ could be a nice hand against Sam and he's going to take advantage of his tight image, then when you've called, it's a nice pot.  When no one bets on the flop, he takes a stab by betting out.  This didn't work but he got rid of Sam.  Now he's worried what you have so he's taken the free card and checked the turn.  Miracle saver on the river and he's pushed all in knowing you'll call because you had a hand but can't pass because of the decent odds you're being offered.
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2007, 04:58:48 PM »

Posted by: TightEnd 
Quote
How much do you have left before you intend to bet the river?


I am sitting on a stack of 11,700 when the river comes and the pot stands at 10,200. So my bet of 3,900 is a little less than half the pot. I am hoping to encourage a call from a non-believing A-x...but the all-in was a surprise.


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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2007, 05:12:24 PM »

Call prefop is ok 3 handed but i'd have kept a close eye on the BB as the action came round.

Dream flop!!! now how do we get all our cash in?
You simply MUST bet the flop for several reasons, one of the others is certain to have an ace therefore you have a customer, if there is no ace then you are giving free cards for no reason whatsoever.
Always make people pay for their draws because it is the single biggest mistake in poker that folks pay too much to chase, help them make that mistake.

Post flop is irrelevant for me because i simply wouldn't be in that situation unless headsup but i would discount made hands by the river in YOUR position, i doubt very much you will get this far and be ahead to a river push.

So basically i have won the hand on the flop or got all my chips in by the turn, if i did neither of these then i would be kicking myself on the drive home.

BTW any clues as to identity because if i know them i'd  have had the option of the reraise preflop, a lot of the "good" regulars are indeed VERY good indeed and will run rings around many postflop.
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2007, 09:13:28 PM »

He either puts you on a busted flush draw, is very confident in his read, and thinks you'll get off the hand, or he has JJ or TT.

I envisaged him betting the turn and us pushing then, and if he had bet the turn with JJ, our chips were going in then and there, and nothing has changed now. Except him hitting his set of tens Smiley

On this forum, having given the hand lots of thought, I might fold this. But IRL at the table - I'm not good enough to think about it long enough and lay it down. I call.
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2007, 09:18:24 PM »


Dream flop!!! now how do we get all our cash in?
You simply MUST bet the flop for several reasons, one of the others is certain to have an ace therefore you have a customer, if there is no ace then you are giving free cards for no reason whatsoever.
Always make people pay for their draws because it is the single biggest mistake in poker that folks pay too much to chase, help them make that mistake.

You might give someone a freebie. But you might well encourage a bet from KK and a re-raise from AK, AQ or, more unlikely, A9. You might encourage someone who would have folded to your bet to have a stab at the pot. And if you'd been lucky, you might have encouraged Sam to sandwich. I would agree with you v1 here, I think the check against two players is perfectly acceptable. Check call is more risky than check raise, of course, but I think the risk-reward ratio here is decent enough to warrant the risk. I think if I was happy to take the pot down every time I had the best hand on the flop, I'd never build a stack big enough to play with Smiley
« Last Edit: October 12, 2007, 09:24:15 PM by pswnio » Logged
MANTIS01
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« Reply #41 on: October 13, 2007, 02:32:29 AM »

Good post pswino. I think the risk of getting outdrawn has to be balanced against the risk of not making the most of what is a favourable situation. Hitting a set is a rare occurrence in tournaments and taking risks in order to maximise the situation is warranted here I think.

The most notable thing for me about the hand this week is to do with mindset. The flop comes down A-9-3 and we have a tendency to assume an Ace is out there. Why do we do this? I know a raise and a call pre-flop means an Ace MAY be out there...but it is not a certainty by any means. We make the assumption BEFORE we see any evidence to back it up and it guides our play. This can be risky in itself because fold-fold from two lower pairs is a distinct possibility. A LAG betting out strength here makes sense, but a TAG betting out his Ace gets respect from anything other than...a big ACE.

Not making anything from this pot on the flop is a more scary prospect for me than an unlikely heart on the turn....and I think the assumption that someone has just paired their Ace is a BIG one to make at this stage. So I like the check as well because it gets you a bit more information than you have now and allows the other players the opportunity to make a move they otherwise wouldn't have made.

The same mind-set goes for the flush draw. There are two hearts on board and we are naturally inclined to scare away the draws. But who's on a draw? I think that we tend to see the danger on the board and it manifests into a reality before we have any evidence to support it. If the worst possible scenario always governs your thoughts I think this can lead to playing your strong hands quicker than you might. On the other side of the scale...we give a free card and the turn is the  .....completing our full-house draw and someone else's flush. This is the best case scenario.

The most likely case scenario is that the turn is not a heart and so we don't have anything to fear. By checking we can see if an Ace is actually out there and wants to defend the pot against our set (played like a flush draw). No heart on the turn allows Ace-man the opportunity to push because he is ASSUMING we have hearts and is scared of the very outdraw we are when the flop comes down.

At least if the flush does come we can use our check-call as a way to represent it and win rather than allowing him to use it should he have called our flop bet.
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« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2007, 03:48:42 AM »

The most notable thing for me about the hand this week is to do with mindset. The flop comes down A-9-3 and we have a tendency to assume an Ace is out there. Why do we do this? I know a raise and a call pre-flop means an Ace MAY be out there...but it is not a certainty by any means. We make the assumption BEFORE we see any evidence to back it up and it guides our play. This can be risky in itself because fold-fold from two lower pairs is a distinct possibility. A LAG betting out strength here makes sense, but a TAG betting out his Ace gets respect from anything other than...a big ACE.

If they have 2 lower pairs then you're never going to win a big pot anyway (unless they hit their set, which could make or break us), so is it worth it?

Not betting out:
Pros
You get a small bet from a player that has missed
A player that has nothing might make a worse hand and go broke

Cons
You make it harder to get the money in if they have a hand
The hand is harder to play
A player that has nothing might make a better hand
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« Reply #43 on: October 13, 2007, 12:26:14 PM »

The most notable thing for me about the hand this week is to do with mindset. The flop comes down A-9-3 and we have a tendency to assume an Ace is out there. Why do we do this? I know a raise and a call pre-flop means an Ace MAY be out there...but it is not a certainty by any means. We make the assumption BEFORE we see any evidence to back it up and it guides our play. This can be risky in itself because fold-fold from two lower pairs is a distinct possibility. A LAG betting out strength here makes sense, but a TAG betting out his Ace gets respect from anything other than...a big ACE.

If they have 2 lower pairs then you're never going to win a big pot anyway (unless they hit their set, which could make or break us), so is it worth it?

Not betting out:
Pros
You get a small bet from a player that has missed
A player that has nothing might make a worse hand and go broke

Cons
You make it harder to get the money in if they have a hand
The hand is harder to play
A player that has nothing might make a better hand

If there is no ace out then how are you going to win a big pot anyway?
The ace on the flop is either a big green light or a hand killer, if you allow people to draw to bigger hands than yourself for free then you are going to lose in the long run.
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« Reply #44 on: October 13, 2007, 04:54:46 PM »

Yep, a couple of good posts there. Someone having the Ace is often going to make or break the hand and we probably wont win a big pot if this isn't the case. But our check does allow the Kings an apportunity to c-bet and represent one...with the potential of a genuine Ace behind him. Also, there are only 4 pairs that can improve to beat us (at least 2 of which would have raised pre-flop) and 7 that will improve and loose their stack to us...as well as one pair that turns 2 pair etc...So I think the rewards of offering a free card, if that happens at all, are probably worth the risks.
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