Spidey senses

[TightEnd]

2-4 NLHE, full ring

I am in CO with   $425 Raise to $14 unopened pot. Solid image.

Villain in SB $700, stats suggest solid, TAG. Flat calls. Has only done this twice before, calling OOP, and has folded to C bet on each occasion in this session

Flop

 

check to me I bet $22

Flat called

Turn 

 

checked to me  I bet $60

He calls

River a blank

 

checked to me a third time

Having been check called twice by a solid player I am fearing a set. Despite no value bet from him (I know he knows that I must have a hand to fire twice, so he thinks I'll bet), I check behind


Thoughts please

I'm more likely to be missing a third bet here? Or more likely behind?

 

[jakally]

I feel I got to Value Bet here.

You could be behind, but I think you are ahead more often than not, and it is unlikely he has been calling on any sort of draw, therefore will possibly call a bet on the end.

Not impossible he has played AT, AJ, AQ like this.

[byronkincaid]

I feel I got to Value Bet here.

You could be behind, but I think you are ahead more often than not, and it is unlikely he has been calling on any sort of draw, therefore will possibly call a bet on the end.

Not impossible he has played AT, AJ, AQ like this.

I've been playing a bit of full ring recently and people are a lot lot tighter than 6 max, I would put his range at AQ,AK, a set or a slight possibility that he had QJ sooted, and then do an EV calc. Trouble is it would take me 2 hours and I'd still get it wrong With 30 secs to decide I would prob be scared of getting raised off the hand if he has AK and as the only hand I'm beating that may call is AQ I'd check.

[TheChipPrince]

May have A10, i dont think he has you beat here often enough to warrant a check... Approx $200 in pot, I value bet $80...

[Bongo]

Check Turn, Call/Bet River?

[doubleup]

I'm just checking - while full ring players might show down a hand that theoretically would call a river bet e.g. AQ, they usually fold these to a TAG's river bet.  He prob has AK as well.

[AdamG]

he has top top (AQ? )

[TightEnd]

He had a set of 10 as it happens

Two check calls got me worried, correctly, but I was wondering whether I "should" in a sense of playing optimal poker, stacked off

[temp0r]

i was gonna say a solid TAG at that limit will very rarely check-call twice without two pair at least.
wp by just checking behind. you can take comfort in the fact he probably cursed you for it!

[UpTheMariners]

you can still value bet on the river and not stack off surely?

[Longy]

you can still value bet on the river and not stack off surely?

Yeah i agree with this surely we can bet this river for value, and then fold to a shove.

[Bongo]

What's calling?

[Longy]

What's calling?

AQ, if this is a game where AQ is not calling im off to find another game, definitley A10, hell even maybe AJ. One of may major cash flop leaks that im trying to plug is value betting and this seems a very clear value bet.

[doubleup]

What's calling?

AQ, if this is a game where AQ is not calling im off to find another game, definitley A10, hell even maybe AJ. One of may major cash flop leaks that im trying to plug is value betting and this seems a very clear value bet.

I dont think this is a good spot to extend your v-betting range i.e. TAG vs TAG who both know this.  If I was a looser player or the villain was looser it would be a v-bet.  Prob always a v-bet in 6 handed.

[Bongo]

I agree doubleup.

Also is the TAG likely to call a raise (from another TAG) OOP with AJ or A10?