Im raising enough on the flop to commit on the turn. I love how you played the flop, i just think you need to have the heart to move in on the turn. He has checked to you, a set doesnt check here very often. You are over-repping a big pair, set or AQ and i think versus his range and your fold equity, especially 15 from the money, you have to bet big. Quality flop play, im impressed.
Possibly you could raise a little more on the flop so ur turn decision is easier, and courage of conviction to jam the turn.
Yeah, I confess that I haven't read most of the responses in this thread but I kinda agree with this. Couple of things:
PREFLOP:
Raising the CO when folded to us this deep against a player who has not shown a tendency to aggressively defend is super standard. However, I really dislike raising to 2.2k. My standard at the 300 / 600 level is going to be 1650 or so. And I will stick to that size every time I open a pot irrespective of hand strength or position. Essentially, whether you make it 1650 or 2200 is not going to change the range of hands that he calls, folds or raises with that much. You will want to be opening a lot of pots, so it is better to keep the pot as small as possible in relation to the stacks behind as it makes continuation betting; floating; etc much easier and cheaper postflop.
Keep active for as cheap as possible and leaving yourself the widest range of postflop actions as possible.
FLOP:
Well done. We flopped Gin. You have a whopper draw and folding shouldn't ever enter our mind. However, it is not a bad result for us to take this pot without showdown. As such, after he bets 2500 my concern would be to raise the flop:
- Our equity will always be greatest on the flop so if all the money has to go in that is where we want to get it in;
- We are deep enough to fire two big ugly shells at this guy and make it tough for him OOP;
Therefore, why not raise to 10 or 11k? This will make the flop re - raise potsize. And it will allow us to shove the turn potsize again if he checks to us. If we have completed it's for value of course - but when we miss it gives him a real decision as to whether to call or fold.
AS PLAYED:
On the turn, as played I would take the free card. We now have caught some showdown value and possibly a few extra outs - but if we get it in here now we will be taking the worst of it against a reasonable range of holdings for him to get over the line with just the one card coming.
As played, on the river you beat a bluff and should fold. He is highly unlikely to overshove KQ or AQ. He would be deliberately turning showdown value into a bluff and that is highly unlikely to be the case.
Spades have missed of course, and a draw can make up some of his range given the half pot lead, call on the flop and turn check - but that is a good reason for him to shove a set after a whiffed checkraise on the turn; and he could have backed into an unlikely straight with 8x of spades or 88.
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