I think this works for me
Drinking for Profit—Poker for the Casual Vegas Player
I plan to engage in extensive field research over the course of the next year. I also hope to learn from others who wish to conduct field testing of the theories set forth below. With proper refinement, I am confident we will eventually be able to empirically prove what I have labelled the “Tequila Sunrise Theorem”:
Utilizing optimal strategy, drinking at the poker table is profitable.
Analysis: First, we must establish our core principle—to drink as much as possible, for as little cost as possible.
Rule I: Every dollar saved on booze at the poker table is a dollar earned.
My initial research, conducted in various Vegas poker rooms during last year, provided me with sufficient drinking data that I was able to isolate several factors that bore a positive correlation to drinking profits. I was able to narrow the relevant variables to the following: a) drinking rate (DR); b) value of booze consumed (VBC); and c) poker playing costs (PC). Using these variables, a serious poker-drinker can maximize his “expected drinking value” (EDV) by finding poker rooms and games that offer high positive EDV and avoiding rooms and games that offer negative EDV. The exact mathematical formula for calculating EDV is:
EDV = (DR * VBC) – PC
Where EDV is expressed in dollars per hour, DR is expressed in drinks per hour, VBC is expressed in dollars per drink, and PC is expressed in dollars per hour.
Rule II: The faster you drink, the more money you make. Conversely, nursing a drink is like burning money.
In the EDV formula, DR is a positive variable, meaning that, as DR increases, so does EDV. Further, DR has a multiplicative effect on another positive variable, VBC. So, increasing your DR has a synergistic effect in increasing your EDV. How do you increase your DR in real life? First, drink faster! You can’t get drink number 2 until drink number 1 is finished, nor can you get drink number 26 until you finish drinks 1-25. Every minute that you spend at the table without a drink is a minute that is lowering your EDV, and literally sucking money out of your drinking bankroll.
Rule III: The better the booze, the more money you make.
This rule is already fairly well-understood by most professional poker-drinkers. However, the mathematical impact of drinking top shelf liquor is probably underestimated by the casual poker-drinker. Looking at the EDV formula, VBC is not only a positive variable, but it also has a multiplicative effect on the DR variable. So, not only is one top shelf drink a profitable play but itself, but many top shelf drinks will have an even more profound positive effect on EDV. If you have a choice between a $4 beer, a $6 drink, and a $10-$12 top shelf drink, choosing anything but the top shelf drink is a -EDV play.
Rule IV: The cheaper the poker game, the more money you make.
Many casual poker-drinkers pay little or no attention to game selection. Instead, they just take the first table available, or play the poker game they are most familiar with, without evaluating the costs of that game. This laissez-faire attitude is a major leak for many serious poker-drinkers. When evaluating your PC, keep in mind that there are two factors contributing to the total PC: fixed costs (FC) over which you have no control (e.g., blinds and antes), and betting costs (BC) which are purely voluntary (e.g., your stupid choice to call a raise and a re-raise in EP with 7-4 suited, just because they are suited and April 7 is your birthday). For a pure poker-drinker, FC is the most important factor in game selection.
Rule IV(a): Seek poker games where you can maximize your booze-to-blinds ratio.*
To analyze FC, consider a poker room that offers 1-2 NLHE & 2-5 NLHE. The FC per orbit for each game is $3 & $7 respectively. In order to break even at a particular game, assuming you do not play beyond posting your blinds and folding (the “muck and slurp” strategy), you must consume alcohol every orbit that equals or exceeds the FC for the game. Put another way, your VBC / orbit >= FC / orbit. This concept is known as the booze-to-blinds ratio.
Assume you are playing at a poker room, with a maximum drink value of $6 (inc $1 tip) for drinks or decent beer. The booze-to-blinds ratios for the 2 games are 2:1 for the 1-2NLHE game but slightly worse than 1:1 for the 2-5NLHE game. In other words, the 1-2NLHE game is twice as profitable as the 2-5NLHE game! A poker-drinker who drinks one drink per orbit will make a healthy profit at the 1-2NLHE game, but will only break even at the 2-5NLHE game. Ideally, in order to maximize your booze-to-blinds ratio, you will want to seek out games where high value booze is served.
Rule IV(b): Seek poker games where you can maximize your drink-to-orbit ratio.
Because your FC correlates directly with the number of orbits of poker played, you will want to find a game where you can consume the greatest number of drinks in the fewest number of orbits. This concept is known as the drink-to-orbit ratio.
The drink-to-orbit ratio is the flip side of the DR concept previously discussed. Both concepts focus on how to get the most booze in the least time. For DR, the focus is on increasing the booze delivery rate, while the drink-to-orbit is focused on slowing the rate of payment of the blinds. A lot of factors can affect your drink-to-orbit ratio. Ideally, if you are able to choose between several different games that have the same blinds, you will want to look for the slowest playing table.
Rule V: Poker-drinking position is critical.
Many novice poker-drinkers are oblivious to the critical role of position in selecting a poker-drinking game. Unlike in poker, position for a poker-drinker is quite literal—it refers to the poker-drinker’s physical status:
Early position—An “early position” poker-drinker is early in his day (usually starting noonish to mid-afternoon). He is fully upright and able to ambulate without difficulty to any poker room on the Strip. He is able to appreciate the quality of the premium liquor he is consuming.
Middle position—A “middle position” poker-drinker is midway through his day, usually beginning after a late dinner (preferably a heavy Italian or Mexican dinner to better absorb the free booze). He is usually reclining in his chair, can ambulate without assistance as far as the next casino, and is able to tolerate short, low-speed cab rides without puking. He is not able to distinguish premium booze from well drinks, but is still sober enough to order “the good stuff”.
Late position—A “late position” poker-drinker is winding down his day, usually marked by eating pizza by the slice. He is close to horizontal or slumped forward almost to his knees, but can still stumble to the toilet and post his blinds with assistance from the dealer. He is not capable of operating a lift, and moving walkways confuse him. He will order booze by grunting, “Beer!” or “Gin & tonic!”, but will drink whatever shite is placed in front of him.
Conclusion: Hopefully this mathematical and game theory analysis will prove helpful to players of all ability levels in their quest to analyze the leaks in their poker-drinking games. After all, why just get drunk in Vegas, when you can get paid to get drunk in Vegas?
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