How best to manipulate a possible tool/tilted loon?

[ACE2M]

16000 gtd on ongame last night

20 from the money 110 left, i'm about 30th on 29,000, chip leader is 68,000. Blinds 600,1200 no antes.

I'm utg+1 with 

UTG limps, he has 33,000 and was chip leader with around 95,000 at the start of this round, he has limped 3 times in the last round and called all ins from shorter stacks each time with dubious holdings which were  ,    ,  (this call was for 40,000 chips of his 70,000 ish) and lost them all to real hands. Before this he had called raises twice oop and shoved both flops, once on a total steal and the other the oppo folded so we don't know for sure what he had.

there are several stacks who cover us both yet to act.

I have been at the table for 2 orbits and raised and taken the blinds once.

Should I -

Normal 3x bb type raise
Over raise 5/6x bb
limp
shove

[Longy]

I make a standard raise to about 5000 and play from them there. Maintaining a balance between getting value and allowing some play post flop to exploit the "tool".

If i get raised by anyone at the table, Im getting it all in preflop.

[ACE2M]

given that i am certain that any raise (not all in) gets called by the utg+1 and his MO for shoving flops oop and the fact i am 2/1 against hitting anything to make it an easy call, or shoving knowing there is a high chance of getting called by hands i have dominated and that i will get it all in to a raise PF anyway.

What if i standard raise and he checks it to me on a flop i've missed, am i more scared? and a c-bet puts around half my stack in the middle, too much in to fold? and become a victim of waiting for some cards to shove.

god i love poker.

[LuckyLloyd]

Shoving here is fine.

[boldie]

Shoving here is fine.

I'd agree. If I think I'm going to get called by loonietunes anyways, why wouldn't I shove here?

[MANTIS01]

In this situation I favour the limp.

Pushing here is not something I would be interested in. Firstly, if you over-bet by pushing in the 29,000k you will actually tell people you have A-K and actually telling people what you have is not good in poker. Also, if you push you will ONLY be called by players in later positions who have you beat. To risk 29,000k to win 3k when you're tournament position is quite healthy doesn't make much sense to me. If you limp instead there is a fair chance of a raise behind and probably at least one call before it gets back to you....at this stage push. The risk will now be much more worthwhile and in addition your hand will be better disguised. If UTG limp-pushes in the face of a raise this will give you the opportunity to think again but if there is no raise you will go to the flop with position, a good hand, and your decisions will be easy.

[LuckyLloyd]

Jaysus Mantis, lol. Limping here is not good. Raise or shove. Given the description offered of this guy we are losing tons of value by limping. And we only have 23 BBs. Thats not a huge stack; isn't anywhere near "comfortable". This guy has been showing a tendency to call shoves pre and gamble light. He is probably tilting a bit now also which makes him LESS likely to fold anything remotely decent. Yes, everyone will put you on a big hand. So what, in odd table dynamics we can do something non standard if it carries the greatest EV.

So shove, be happy.

[boldie]

Jaysus Mantis, lol. Limping here is not good. Raise or shove. Given the description offered of this guy we are losing tons of value by limping. And we only have 23 BBs. Thats not a huge stack; isn't anywhere near "comfortable". This guy has been showing a tendency to call shoves pre and gamble light. He is probably tilting a bit now also which makes him LESS likely to fold anything remotely decent. Yes, everyone will put you on a big hand. So what, in odd table dynamics we can do something non standard if it carries the greatest EV.

So shove, be happy.

I'd agree with that

[MANTIS01]

Yes Lloyd your points are valid, particularly if you are thinking about UTG alone and just getting his money into the pot.

But just calling gives an invitation to any LAG behind to pump it up with A-Q or similar and this is a good thing for us. UTG has shown he has a wide range and any of the later players may use that fact, and your limp, as a good reason to push a hand you have crushed. So calling & pushing when it gets back to you gets dead money in the pot that wouldn't be there if you pushed. If you're going to risk your stack here then why not maximise the amount of money in the pot before you do so? Risking everything and winning 3k would be disappointing...and would have zero impact on my tournament. Making the most of this opportunity is important and I think just calling offers the best chance to do that.

[temp0r]

all-in. and make it look arrogant so he's more likely to call. tbf this is probably what you did. he probably called with  and busted you. looool

[LuckyLloyd]

There are no guarantees that someone:

- Identifies that this would be a good spot to raise;
- Finds a hand they are willing to do it with;

Do your own raising.

[totalise]

Mantis, can you quantify this "fair chance" of a raise coming from behind? is it 5%? 10%? 20% 30%?  I'd be interested in how you come to this figure, if you indeed do so.

Personally I'd just send it in.

[MANTIS01]

Re: Wilfully accepting a race....

Quote from: totalise

calling is ok if you expect a backraise, because your hand is going to dominate the range of the lags behind you, so you can call, they ship in the raise, see how UTG looks/acts, and then turboship your stack in and presumably pick up a reasonable chunk of dead money or get their stack in as a pretty big dog, so its not like you fear a backraise with AK.. because any hand that has you in trouble will call/raise if you raise anyway

FYP

Totalise, can you quantify this "expectation" of a raise coming from behind? is it 5%? 10%? 20% 30%?  I'd be interested in how you come to this figure, if you indeed do so.

Personally I'd just send it in....sometimes

I'm still liking playing A-K this way even if you don't seem to anymore.

[totalise]

the differences between this thread and that one are huge, so its not relevant, and the key point anyways is "calling is ok IF you expect a backraise" and in that thread you had reason to expect a raise from behind, in this thread, given OP's position, and absent any reads from OP, you dont have any specific reason to expect it, and you have good reason to expect UTG to call with whatever filth he has limped in with,  which is why, in this spot, Id send it in. 

[MANTIS01]

I agree the situations differ...but I like the theory. And the theory can be applied to a variety of different situations.

Why do I think the theory works well here? Well UTG has shown the table he is inclined to limp with "dubious holdings" and so his tilt-induced limp is wide open to attack. Our limp behind is going to offer an even more attractive opportunity for the bigger stacks behind to apply the pressure. What's more, we are at that bubble stage in a tournament where lots of players, LAG's especially, get active and apply pressure frequently. I mean, the table is definitely active because there have been at least 3 all-ins in the last orbit. We are talking about pressing our hand to exploit UTG's filth...but everyone else at the table will have similar aspirations...so let's invite them to do this.

The most active of tournament situations, frequent all-ins and two limping lame ducks would give me the expectation there is a "fair chance" of a raise. Of course there isn't a guarantee and I wouldn't be able to confirm an exact % but I think it's a worthwhile chance to take. If no raise comes it's not a disaster because the hand is still playable...and you may win more than 3k this way. UTG has shown he pushes the flop so the chances are his money's going in anyway even if a raise doesn't come.