Coping with variance

[George2Loose]

I know this is an age old discussion but the game I love is killing me.....

I'm going through the worst run of my poker career in my life- 6 months of hell and a huge downswing.

I can honestly say its down to variance- despite getting my money in as clear favourite in many key pots in MTT's- I keep getting outdrawn

On top of that I cant win a flip.

I took a two week break- I've analyised my game. I've even started playing smallball to try and avoid showdowns (it's getting that bad)


I feel tired, depressed and jealous of those who run good- I genuinley believe in the "long term" a winning player will be a winning player however "how long is a piece of string"?

I'd be interested to how others have coped in this situation- I've tried taking a break, any other suggestions would be more than welcome

Thanks,

[bobby1]

Hi George, before your 6 month losing spell how many consecutive profitable months did you have?

[RED-DOG]

you know it will come good eventually. Just continue to get your money in when you're in front.

Every outdraw is proof positive that you are doing it right.

Keep the faith.

[Longy]

Punch the desk, punch the bed, throw a remote at the wall, generally swear at your laptop about how these donks play so bad etc.........

Erm in all seriousness stop playing mtt's and play cash or something. Mtt's have massive varience and the long term is a very long time but no form of poker is varience free.

Also having an attitude that your game is fine and that it is all varience is not a health attitude, I would literally go through every hand, ask a friend to have a look at HH's etc. Even if its for someone to reassure you are playing good.

[M3boy]

ask a friend to have a look at HH's etc. Even if its for someone to reassure you are playing good.

Great advise imo - I have done this before

Sometimes you just cannot analyse your own play as effectively as someone else can

[MKKfish]

I know this is an age old discussion but the game I love is killing me.....

I'm going through the worst run of my poker career in my life- 6 months of hell and a huge downswing.

I can honestly say its down to variance- despite getting my money in as clear favourite in many key pots in MTT's- I keep getting outdrawn

On top of that I cant win a flip.

I took a two week break- I've analyised my game. I've even started playing smallball to try and avoid showdowns (it's getting that bad)


I feel tired, depressed and jealous of those who run good- I genuinley believe in the "long term" a winning player will be a winning player however "how long is a piece of string"?

I'd be interested to how others have coped in this situation- I've tried taking a break, any other suggestions would be more than welcome

Thanks,

Which bit of the above do you think is not going to help?

[AlexMartin]

Have a break, meet up live and discuss poker with someone who has a high knowledge of the game and can think at the same level you can. And i find a break does wonders for my confidence and game.

[Royal Flush]

Are you sure you are a winning player? How long were you a winner before 'variance' kicked in. Do not rely purely on showdowns to be a winning MTT player

[AlexMartin]

Are you sure you are a winning player? How long were you a winner before 'variance' kicked in. Do not rely purely on showdowns to be a winning MTT player

I take back my advice. Just ask flushy about rungoodallthetimeevenwhenimnotplayingaments.

[Shogun112]

I know this is an age old discussion but the game I love is killing me.....

I'm going through the worst run of my poker career in my life- 6 months of hell and a huge downswing.

I can honestly say its down to variance- despite getting my money in as clear favourite in many key pots in MTT's- I keep getting outdrawn

On top of that I cant win a flip.

I took a two week break- I've analyised my game. I've even started playing smallball to try and avoid showdowns (it's getting that bad)


I feel tired, depressed and jealous of those who run good- I genuinley believe in the "long term" a winning player will be a winning player however "how long is a piece of string"?

I'd be interested to how others have coped in this situation- I've tried taking a break, any other suggestions would be more than welcome

Thanks,

I remember playing on your table at the APAT Onlive...  You had pockets so many times it was unreal..  So many AA, KK, QQ, JJ for one person..  You were way wayyyyy ahead of everyone in the chip counts...  You were in so many races and you were coming up good in them all..  It did not matter if you were ahead or behind, you pretty much won them all...  At the last 15 you were still massively leading with like 250k chips with 2nd best maybe half that... Next time I looked, you were out...  I did not see every hand, but saw 1 or 2 losses, and thought, things are going to even themselves outsoon and you would get involved in some races that you were going to lose... The next thing at 8 players remaining, you had gone out in 9th...

Firstly, what happened?  Did you lose some mega races or something?
And secondly, 9th place in that particular MTT was a great result, cant be all that bad for ya..!!

Cheers

Carl..

[lucky_scrote]

Also having an attitude that your game is fine and that it is all varience is not a health attitude.

Poor advice.

Just sit at a table being unemotional, whatever will be will be.

Get a hold of the book "the poker mindset" it works good.

[MANTIS01]

I can only offer an opinion with regard to tournament poker. Lucky Scrote nails the point when he mentions poker mindset. If you get your chips in pair over pair or similar your work as a player is done and now you are a mere passenger on the pokergod bus. Looking for ways to change the fact that you are a passenger will be a fruitless search.

Talking to friends and analysing your game etc...is all good advice to improve your strategy but nothing you do can manufacture a win. You can only give yourself a winning chance.

To give yourself the best winning chance in No Limit poker tournaments you need a certain mentality. And that mentality is a fearless and unemotional one. As such use these beats and outdraws etc...to fuel and strengthen this fearless approach.

The more you suffer the more hardened you become and the more hardened you become the better your approach to poker will be. Millions of people around the world in all walks of life, such as religion and sport, look to actively put themselves through pain to make themselves more capable. Joe Calzaghe gets punched in the face and it makes him more determined...Audely Harrison gets punched in the face and he collapses to the floor. It is how you react to the adversity that is more important than looking for ways to avoid this inevitablity.

Pressing on the bubble of a major tournament is a strategy exploited by those who know others will care about going out more than they do. You can only develop that care free mentality if you are immune to the pain and you aquire that immunity by getting bad-beated to hell. So welcome the pain...it is your best friend.

[snoopy1239]

I can honestly say its down to variance- despite getting my money in as clear favourite in many key pots in MTT's- I keep getting outdrawn

You're right when you say it is "an old age discussion", and this is the comment that nearly everyone makes as it's much easier to point to luck as an explanation for the downswing. However, more often than not, it is a mixture of bad luck and bad play, the latter usually affected by the former. Of course, you may be right, and you're playing perfect poker, but my advice would be to whack on the old poker tracker and analyse your game of late to see if you are indeed playing as well as you were before. Sometimes people play differently, without realising it. Identifying these minor alterations (eg. raising more hands than usual, bluffing when you know they're still going to call, playing when tired) could make the world of difference.

[boldie]

I can honestly say its down to variance- despite getting my money in as clear favourite in many key pots in MTT's- I keep getting outdrawn

You're right when you say it is "an old age discussion", and this is the comment that nearly everyone makes as it's much easier to point to luck as an explanation for the downswing. However, more often than not, it is a mixture of bad luck and bad play, the latter usually affected by the former. Of course, you may be right, and you're playing perfect poker, but my advice would be to whack on the old poker tracker and analyse your game of late to see if you are indeed playing as well as you were before. Sometimes people play differently, without realising it. Identifying these minor alterations (eg. raising more hands than usual, bluffing when you know they're still going to call, playing when tired) could make the world of difference.

sage advice indeed.

[Grier78]

I agree with Snoopy, for some anecdotal evidence my girlfriend went on a bad run, she always stuck her chips in with the best hand but was always getting sucked out on and going out, problem was she was playing too tight and was relying on the big hands holding up. She discovered that by loosening up and building a bigger stack you could take an outdraw and still be in the tournament.

I am not saying variance doesn't exist but if you go from a winning player to a losing player over a significant period of time then you need to look to see what has changed.